After a long season, the NBA Finals are finally here at the ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex in Orlando, Florida, where LeBron James and the Lakers will take on the Heat.
The NBA Finals start on Wednesday, and all games will be broadcast on ABC and ESPN Radio. Games can also be streamed with the ESPN App.
Which side of the odds should you be on? Betting analysts Doug Kezirian, Preston Johnson, Joe Fortenbaugh and Tyler Fulghum offer their best bets for the Finals.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill.
Series pick
No. 1 Lakers (-380) vs. No. 5 Heat (+300)
Johnson: I project the Lakers to win the series 74.3% of the time, or a true price of -289. With the price coming down since it opened Saturday night and Game 1 moving from +5.5 to as low as +4.5, I won't have any immediate action.
Stylistically, this is going to be a huge changeup for the Lakers relative to their three Western Conference matchups. Against Portland, the Lakers needed to worry about only two players: Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum. For Houston, it was James Harden and Russell Westbrook. Denver had Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray. Miami is a team that can hit you in many ways offensively. The Heat are also the best suited of anybody L.A. has faced to defend LeBron and AD.
This is going to be a battle. The fan in me wants this to be a breeze for L.A., but Miami has earned our respect.
Pick: Pass
Futures
Bam Adebayo Finals MVP 12-1
Kezirian: This is very strange to me. I realize his team is +300 in the series, and he's one of a few guys who figure to win the award if Miami defeats the Lakers. However, Adebayo leads the Heat in rebounds, assists and blocks this postseason while ranking third in points and second in steals. Plus, Adebayo is critical to the team's defensive strategy, particularly because he figures to draw the assignment of guarding Davis.
Fulghum: The Heat have the personnel and scheme to limit efficiency for Davis and James. Adebayo, a breakout star in these playoffs, has the length and athleticism to stay in front of AD. Adebayo did a marvelous job in the Milwaukee series of limiting league MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo. Davis is a different force because of his ability to reliably hit perimeter shots, but Adebayo is fully equipped for the challenge.
If the Heat win the series, Bam won't win MVP solely because of his defensive efforts. He can and will be a focal point or fulcrum for Erik Spoelstra on offense. Operating from the top of the key, Adebayo is dangerous as a passer, awesome on dribble handoff plays setting screens and a capable scorer. If the Heat pull off an upset, Adebayo's 94-foot game will likely be the biggest reason.
Game 1 picks
No. 1 Los Angeles Lakers (-4.5, 217.5) vs. No. 5 Miami Heat
Money line: Lakers -185, Heat +165
Fortenbaugh: Think about it like this: LeBron and the Lakers were laying 6.5 points against Portland in Game 1 of the opening round of the playoffs. How many of you believe that Miami is only two points better than the defensively challenged Blazers? For those who raised their hands, I've got a bridge in Argentina that I'd love to sell you. The Heat own the coaching advantage with Erik Spoelstra and have a deeper roster than Los Angeles. Additionally, keep in mind that despite his incredible career, LeBron is just 2-7 ATS in Game 1 of the NBA Finals and 20-28-1 ATS in his 49 career Finals appearances.
Pick: Heat +4.5
Kezirian: At some point, the Heat will gain respect from the betting market. They were underdogs in every Eastern Conference finals game and open as significant underdogs to the Lakers. I plan to back Miami in every single game this series. I think Miami's defensive approach matches up quite well with the Lakers. Bam Adebayo has the athleticism and skill set to hold his own against Anthony Davis, and Jimmy Butler and Andre Iguodala historically have performed well against LeBron. Those defensive aces will enable their teammates to avoid double-teams and thus keep the Lakers' role players from wide-open looks.
Pick: Heat +4.5
Fulghum: The Heat have been the best, most complete team in the NBA postseason. Not only do they have the same 12-3 record as the Lakers in this postseason, but also, against superior competition in the Eastern Conference playoffs, Miami is 12-3 ATS. The Lakers, on the other hand, have been very good ATS, at 9-5-1, but not quite as dominant as Miami.
As far as Game 1 is concerned, LeBron-led teams have a curious trend going that I will lean into. LeBron's teams are 1-8 in Game 1 of the Finals in his career (2-7 ATS). I also like the Heat in seven games at +700.
Pick: Heat (+165) ML