The 2020 MLB playoffs are here and promise to be different than any other baseball postseason. For the first time, we have 16 teams participating and a brand-new best-of-three first round. How will it shake out? Betting analysts Doug Kezirian and Preston Johnson give their thoughts and picks as the playoffs get underway.
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Round 1 series picks
Houston Astros (+150) at Minnesota Twins (-170)
Kezirian: Alas, the Twins do not open with the Yankees in the postseason, which is something they have done each of their past four playoffs appearances. They lost all 10 games without a single victory. However, for the first time since 2006, it's a different playoff opponent and I do believe this year will produce a different outcome for a few reasons.
I realize Houston has the bigger names, given recent playoff success, but Minnesota's metrics are far better -- particularly in September. I just think Houston hit a wall in a long and tiring season full of controversy. Are we to assume that the Astros' top bats can flip the switch just because it's the playoffs? I think that's a flawed narrative. If they do, then they do. But I trust this Minnesota lineup much more. Plus, the pitching has been much more reliable than a Houston staff that is clearly missing Justin Verlander. Game 1 starter Zack Greinke has allowed at least three earned runs in his past seven starts.
It's a short series, so anything can happen, but I am riding the Twins. They essentially have the advantage in every category, aside from recent playoff success, and their win total was one of my favorite plays entering the season. I believe in this team.
Pick: Twins -170 over Astros
Chicago White Sox (-110) at Oakland Athletics (-110)
Johnson: The early prices that started opening Sunday night had the Athletics a -135 favorite, but now the market has come down to a true PK at -110. This wasn't a bet I had anticipated I would be making, but my projections price Oakland at -138, or roughly 58% to win the series.
The Athletics have a slight pitching advantage, and the White Sox -- looking at the season's results -- theoretically have the advantage with their bats. However, my projections don't expect Matt Olson and Khris Davis to continue to hit sub-.200. Olson was especially bit by the BABIP bug this year. He reached safely only on 22.7% of the balls he put in play, while it was 30% in 2019 and 2018.
Fangraphs' win probability added (WPA) metric captures the change in win expectancy relative to contextual plate appearances from a team from game to game. The White Sox bats ranked 10th in baseball with a WPA of 1.38. The Athletics ranked 12th (0.9). It's razor thin, and at the very least the value of these team's offenses is closer than what initially meets the eye.
The pitching edge is the difference for me (again, it's slight, but the Athletics field the best bullpen in baseball), and the narrative that Billy Beane-run teams can't win is exactly that -- a narrative.
Pick: A's -110 to win Round 1 series
Cincinnati Reds (+115) at Atlanta Braves (-135)
Kezirian: Buzz is a funny thing sometimes. Cincy was among the chic picks entering the season and is now gaining momentum for the postseason. Only the true believers were there during the midseason lull. I have not stepped one foot on the Reds' bandwagon -- until now. I think they have the makings of a solid postseason run, and it starts with this series against Atlanta.
The Braves pitching is led by Cy Young candidate Max Fried, but he was pulled after one inning last Wednesday with an ankle tweak. The move was precautionary, but it certainly is worth mentioning, and the other starters do not concern me too much. More so, Cincy's trio of Trevor Bauer, Luis Castillo and Sonny Gray is one that should give the Reds the advantage. Cincy's commitment to the long ball can obviously hurt them, as it did most of the season, but it could also prove to be the difference-maker. I am no analytics expert, but the numbers do reflect a team that was unlucky with balls in play. Does the postseason mean all of a sudden we will see a truer outcome? Of course not. But I will take plus-money on a lineup that should do some damage and what I interpret as the better staff.
Pick Reds +115 over Braves
Futures
Reds to win World Series (30-1)
Johnson: The Reds were a team that I was buying before the season after they brought in Driveline Baseball founder Kyle Boddy to serve as director of the team's pitching initiatives. They also brought in other names associated with Driveline to bolster their commitment to pitching development. They didn't disappoint.
The Cincinnati starting rotation led baseball in fielding independent pitching (FIP) this season at 3.47. FIP is a statistic used to measure a pitcher's effectiveness, taking plays that would involve the defense trying to field the ball out of the equation. It's a number scaled to ERA.
The Reds had the best pitching staff in baseball. The Braves' rotation ranked 23rd with a FIP of 4.98. They finished with the third-worst ERA. In fact, of the bottom 12 rotations this year, they were the only team to make the playoffs. Cincinnati has a major advantage here, especially in a shortened three-game series. Trevor Bauer, Luis Castillo and Sonny Gray are arguably the best 1-2-3 punch of any starting rotation in baseball. We saw the Nationals make an incredible playoff run just last year with elite pitching at the top. There's no reason the Reds' pitching staff can't put them in a position to do the same.
If there is a big question for the Reds, however, it is their bats. They ranked dead last in the league this season with a .212 batting average. It's shocking that they still won the majority of their games -- that's how dominant their pitching was. Digging a little deeper, we can see that Cincinnati suffered from extraordinarily awful BABIP luck. Their batting average on balls in play was only .245, which also ranked last in the league -- and by 21 points (Rangers at .266 was the next worst). Season to season, the league average typically hovers around .300. This year, the rest of the league had a BABIP of .294. Do you want to take a guess who ranked No. 1 in all of baseball in BABIP? You guessed it. The Braves hit an astonishing .322 on balls in play.
Reds-Braves is a battle of BABIP-regressing offenses. If we see some of that luck turn to the team with the significantly better pitching staff, Cincinnati will be ripe for an upset, and it could carry over through multiple rounds.
I'm holding on to my National League 15/1 future from before the season, but the current World Series price of +3000 is worth adding as well. The only team with a bigger payoff is the Brewers at +3500, and they face the odds-on favorite Dodgers out of the gate. My personal projection sees the Reds winning the Major League Baseball bracket 5.7% of the time, and that's plenty of value relative to the 30/1 we're being offered.
Game 1: Houston Astros (Zack Greinke +135) at Minnesota Twins (Kenta Maeda -145), Tuesday, 2 p.m. ET on ABC
Kezirian: I understand Houston's recent track record, but it does have an asterisk and that scrutiny has led to an exhausting year. The Astros limped into the postseason with a 10-17 record and really are overmatched. I understand the lineup has some high-profile names, but this is a team that has not delivered all year. Plus, Greinke has a 5.73 ERA in his past seven starts, while Maeda has been an awesome addition and might even finish second in the Cy Young voting. The Twins' lineup is loaded -- they have the pitching edge and also have home-field advantage, which helps in late-game situations.
Pick: Twins -145 in game 1