One of the toughest things to do following Week 1 of the NFL season is to not overreact to single-game samples but still make necessary adjustments. I tend to be cautious, and considering everybody had a unique offseason and there were no preseason games, it's probably best not to make big decisions based on results just yet.
Via ESPN Stats and Information, in the past 10 seasons, teams that are 0-1 going into Week 2 are 46-34 ATS against teams that are 1-0. I could also flip a coin and land heads 46 times out of 80. But I'm not ready to call those results 100% noise either. There are certainly occasions during the season when we see market overreaction, and Week 2 is one of them.
Here's a look at some of the biggest line moves so far in Week 2, and whether they line up with my personal projections or not.
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns
Opened: Browns -6.5
Current: Browns -5.5
This isn't a huge move by any means, but considering the lookahead line before Week 1's games were played was Cleveland -7.5 -- on the other side of a notable key number -- I think this market reaction is worth noting. Sure, losing 38-6 to Baltimore in Week 1 requires us to step back and reevaluate Cleveland -- honestly, we should always be reevaluating Cleveland. However, a quick boxscore autopsy points to the Browns playing much better than the final score indicated. Now they will be facing a rookie quarterback (Joe Burrow) in his first road game, on a short week, and he'll be backed by one of the worst defenses in the league. That isn't a recipe for success, and I disagree with the early-week move.
Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles
Opened: Eagles -2.5
Current: Rams -1
There may not be a worse loss all season than the Eagles' defeat in Washington, after being up 17-0 with less than a minute remaining in the first half. Teams leading by 17 points in 2019 had a record of 224-7-1. Philadelphia lost a game in which Washington averaged just 3.4 yards per play -- for context, there were only 18 games in 2019 in which a team averaged less than 3.5 yards per play. Those teams went 0-18, and lost by an average of 20 points.
It's extremely hard not to look at Philadelphia in a different light following that game. However, a 3.5-point move is severe. I went out of my way this offseason to voice how overlooked I considered the Rams were, relative to their preseason futures market prices. I am about as bullish on the Rams as anybody I have talked with this year, yet I still make the Eagles a 1.3-point favorite in this matchup.
There isn't enough of a discrepancy at Philadelphia +1 for me to make a bet right now, but if this line continues to move and we see +1.5, then I'll seriously consider using the Eagles in a six-point teaser leg through the key numbers at +7.5. Keep your eye on it.
Denver Broncos at Pittsburgh Steelers
Opened: Steelers -6.5
Current: Steelers -7.5
This is an interesting move, considering how much money went against the Broncos on Monday night. Despite the Von Miller and Courtland Sutton injuries, I thought the move to +3.5 against the Titans at some sportsbooks was way too extreme. I broke it down briefly here on Monday morning.
Denver did cover, but Tennessee's Stephen Gostkowski missed three field goals and an extra point. So the Titans should have covered then, right? Well, maybe not -- the Broncos won the yards-per-play battle, 5.5 to 4.8. There were other factors, too -- including a 14-point swing on two plays in the game. Each team had a 4th-and-goal attempt from the 1-yard line -- the Titans were successful, the Broncos were not. The Broncos also lost a fumble earlier in the game.
The market is going against the Broncos again in Week 2 with a fairly significant move through the key number of seven. Same as last week, I don't think it's warranted. Sutton's status will probably be a question all week, but even if he doesn't play my projection for this matchup is Steelers -6.2. I would only consider a bet on the Denver side at this point.
Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys
Opened: Cowboys -7
Current: Cowboys -4
This move is absolutely wild. The opening line came before the Cowboys' disappointing Sunday night loss to the Rams, but are we really putting that much stock in a single performance against a team that was in the Super Bowl two seasons ago?
This is the definition of overreaction. I'm still bullish on Dallas this year, and there wasn't anything we saw in Atlanta's 38-25 home loss to Seattle that makes me think I need to drastically upgrade my Falcons priors. I even found a Cowboys -3.5 line in the market and bet it. I agree that the -7 at open was slightly high, but this has gone too far the other way, and it's a buy on the Dallas side for me at this point.
Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers
Opened: Chiefs -7
Current: Chiefs -9
This opener didn't last long, and for good reason. On a neutral field I project the Chiefs as a 10.2-point favorite over the Chargers. Considering home-field advantage has been relatively non-existent for the Chargers since moving to Los Angeles, the -7 was an insanely cheap price to bet on the defending champs.
That being said, I'm not jumping to lay the -9 at this point -- I do still award something for home field in LA.