We've reached the final week of the NFL regular season and ESPN betting analysts Joe Fortenbaugh, Preston Johnson and Doug Kezirian, sports betting deputy editor David Bearman, Matt Youmans of the Vegas Stats & Information Network and Seth Walder of ESPN analytics are here to tell us what they like from this weekend's NFL slate. (Note: The Cardinals-Rams game is off the board due to the uncertain statuses of Kyler Murray and Jared Goff.)
Season ATS (against the spread) records:
Clay 1-0 (24-11 on season)
Youmans 1-2 (28-28-2)
Fortenbaugh 2-3 (32-32-1)
Kezirian 3-0 (20-20-1)
Bearman 0-3-1 (15-22-2)
Johnson 2-1 (22-26-1)
Note: Caesars Sportsbook lines displayed as of Wednesday; all times Eastern. Picks on lines available at time of posting.
1 p.m. games
Pittsburgh Steelers (-2, 38) at Baltimore Ravens
Youmans: John Harbaugh made the expected move by announcing that quarterback Lamar Jackson and several other Baltimore starters will sit. The AFC's top seed is secured and Jackson will be MVP, so Harbaugh's decision was easy. The favorite flipped from Ravens -1 to Steelers -2.5 after the news.
Pittsburgh needs the win and help to reach the playoffs. Still, the Steelers have been anemic on offense, scoring 10 points in each of the past two games with Devlin "Duck" Hodges as the starting quarterback. Mason Rudolph, who was responsible for Pittsburgh's only touchdown pass in a Week 16 loss to the Jets, is out with a shoulder injury. The Steelers might also be without running back James Conner because of a quad injury. Hodges' backup is Paxton Lynch.
Robert Griffin III will start for the Ravens and is better than any quarterback Pittsburgh will put on the field, so the line move is probably an overreaction. This has the feel of a preseason game, which is a positive for interested Baltimore bettors. Harbaugh has a 17-game winning streak in the preseason. Around 80 players are available for most preseason games and only 46 are active for regular-season games, so it's not as if Baltimore will be playing garbage backups who will lie down and surrender. It's still a rivalry game and Harbaugh said he's coaching to win.
Pick: Ravens +2
Bearman: Seven straight Steelers games and nine of the past 10 have gone under the total, so we might be a little late on this one. But the numbers back it up, as the Steelers offense -- no matter if it's with Rudolph or Hodges at quarterback -- has broken 20 points once since Week 9, and the defense has done it's part, allowing 20 or more only once over the same span. Pittsburgh's offense ranks 30th in total yards (284.0), 26th in rushing and 31st in passing. According to Football Outsiders, the Steelers' offensive DVOA ranking is 31st, just ahead of the Jets' team who beat them last week in a 16-10 barnburner that didn't come close to the 36.5 number.
The totals have dropped week by week in Steelers games, but it's back up to 38 this week, likely because it's the high-flying Ravens on the other side. But it really isn't. Jackson and lead back Mark Ingram are among a host of players not suiting up, as Baltimore has the top seed locked up. Without those options against a tough Steelers defense, I don't see them scoring much either. Only one Steelers game has topped the listed number of 38 since Nov. 3 and that was a total of 40 vs. Arizona.
Pick: Under 38
Tennessee Titans (-4, 46) at Houston Texans
Fortenbaugh: If the Chiefs defeat the Chargers during Sunday's early wave, the Texans will be locked into the No. 4 seed, no matter the result of this game with rival Tennessee. However, the Titans find themselves facing a win-and-in scenario that would launch Mike Vrabel into the postseason for the first time as an NFL head coach. With running back Derrick Henry rested and slated to return this weekend, you don't have to question Tennessee's mindset or commitment to the cause.
Despite comments to the contrary earlier in the week, I don't believe Texans head coach Bill O'Brien is stupid enough to jeopardize the health of stars such as Deshaun Watson and DeAndre Hopkins for a meaningless Week 17 matchup. Houston suffered a scare with wideout Will Fuller last Saturday and has notoriously underachieved in the playoffs since the franchise's inception in 2002 (3-5). O'Brien himself has been the subject of much criticism since his arrival in 2014 (1-3 playoff record) and has to understand that the easiest way to silencing the haters is by winning in January. Titans roll.
Pick: Titans -3.5
Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-11, 44.5)
Bearman: I've seen all I need to see from the Dallas Cowboys. They have blown every chance they have to make the playoffs and now don't control their destiny. Sure, they can still host a playoff game if Philly doesn't take care of business, but does it really matter? This team is a dead man walking, which is sad considering the talent they have.
Since starting the season 3-0, Dallas is 5-7 ATS, including 3-7 as a favorite. Take out the Rams game, which seems like an aberration, and the Dallas offense is averaging 14.3 PPG since Week 12 -- not an offense I want to lay 11 points with.
The Redskins have shown a pulse offensively, scoring at least 27 points in three of the past four games, and they put up 21 in a 10-point loss to the Cowboys back in Week 2 when we thought the Cowboys were good. With Case Keenum in at quarterback instead of Dwayne Haskins, the Redskins should do just enough. The past five games were all one-score games (yes, I am counting the Eagles game despite the ridiculous last play). We aren't sure what the mindset is in Dallas, and some boxes might already be packed. Good reason to take double digits in a divisional game.
Pick: Redskins +11
Youmans: After blowing an opportunity to clinch the NFC East in Philadelphia, the Cowboys could experience an emotional hangover. It's hard to imagine Jason Garrett's team will show up breathing fire. Last week was the time for that, but Dallas' overrated offense produced just three field goals, and so-called No. 1 wideout Amari Cooper was on the sideline for the game's most important fourth-down pass play.
Yes, the Cowboys need the game and still have a shot to win the division if the Eagles lose in New York, but the Cowboys were in a must-win spot last week, too. The Redskins can play loose with nothing to lose. Interim coach Bill Callahan has made Washington more competitive down the stretch. The Redskins are 2-3 SU in their past five games and were within one score in the final minute of all three losses. This might not be a play with Haskins at quarterback, but he's out and Keenum gives the double-digit underdog a better chance to cover.
Pick: Redskins +11
Walder: Underneath the surface of a mishap of a Cowboys season is an excellent offense. Truly! Dallas ranks third in offensive efficiency, which is expected points added per play with garbage time down-weighted. So what has gone wrong? A below-average defense, sure. But also a misallocation of the passing game.
The Cowboys have a good ground game, but that has apparently fooled them into thinking they ought to be running. The benefits of a strong aerial attack so far outpace the benefits of a good running game that the Cowboys would be better served forgetting Ezekiel Elliott exists on early downs. But they don't. Instead, they underutilize their best asset (Dak Prescott) and overuse Elliott.
Despite that, the offense still has been good. And that's likely why FPI+ thinks the Cowboys will cover this double-digit spread. What's FPI+? It's a new version of our Football Power Index that was designed to beat the spread. It's a brute force machine learning model that incorporates our original model but adds in extra factors -- most notably the betting line itself. We've slowly unveiled FPI+ at times this season, but it's something we intend to use more going forward.
And that starts here with this game. The Cowboys, still alive in the race for the NFC East, ought to pour it on Washington.
Pick: Cowboys -11
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-1, 37)
Kezirian: The Bears have been eliminated and the Vikings cannot help or hurt their playoff seeding in this meaningless Week 17 game. The Vikings have not announced whether any starters will sit to avoid injury, but I expect Minnesota to play the starters briefly. Many coaches have operated this way, hoping to develop some rhythm and rid any lingering stench from the Monday Night Football stinker.
Regardless, both of these defenses are stout, and I have minimal faith in Mitchell Trubisky to light up a scoreboard. The Bears completely shut down Minnesota at home in Week 4 and held the Vikes to just six points. I believe in both defenses.
Pick: Under 37
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (PK, 48.5)
Kezirian: In Jameis Winston I trust. He is a large reason why 11 of the past 13 Buccaneers games have gone over the total. He has thrown 31 touchdown passes and 28 interceptions while leading the NFL in passing yards. That is truly remarkable. Although he is missing key wide receivers (Mike Evans and Chris Godwin), I am still riding the trend.
Atlanta also has been playing much better over the past month, scoring at least 24 points during a current three-game winning streak. Both teams have been eliminated from the playoffs, so let's root for a shootout.
Pick: Over 48.5
Cleveland Browns (-3, 45) at Cincinnati Bengals
Youmans: It seems preposterous, but Cleveland could bring back Freddie Kitchens, who is obviously in way over his head as a head coach. The Browns have been a clown show. While the diva wide receivers throw sideline tantrums on a regular basis, quarterback Baker Mayfield appears mature by comparison. This humbling season should be beneficial for Mayfield, who has 19 touchdown passes with 18 interceptions. Odell Beckham Jr. has just three TD receptions. It's reasonable to wonder if the Browns' stars have mentally checked out.
Andy Dalton and the Bengals do care about this game, which could be Dalton's finale in Cincinnati. The Bengals clinched the No. 1 draft pick with a loss at Miami last week, when Dalton completed 33 of 56 passes for 396 yards and four touchdowns without an interception. Tyler Boyd had nine receptions for 128 yards and two scores. The Browns are 1-3 SU/ATS in December, narrowly covering as 7-point favorites in a 27-19 victory over the Bengals on Dec. 8. Motivation is the major factor in most Week 17 games and this should mean more to the home 'dog.
Pick: Bengals +3
Green Bay Packers (-12.5, 43) at Detroit Lions
Bearman: A matchup of two teams wrapping up seasons headed in different directions. The Packers have the ultimate motivation -- a win guarantees a first-round bye, and a win with a Niners loss later that night would deliver the Packers home field throughout the NFC playoffs. Green Bay also enters 10-5 ATS, tied with the Saints, Chiefs and Rams for best in the league. The 10-5 also includes a 5-2 ATS road record.
The Lions are at the other end -- 5-10 ATS -- and that's after starting the season 4-1 against the number. That's right, 1-9 ATS over the past 10 games. The lone cover was a four-point loss as a 5.5-point 'dog to the Bears in Week 13. I'd be remiss if I didn't tell you that the Lions have covered five straight vs. the Packers, but these are not the same Lions who should have won the controversial Week 6 matchup Monday night at Lambeau. In fact, the wheels have fallen off since that tough loss, with the lone win against the hapless Giants.
Unlike past years, the defense has been driving the Packers this season, allowing only 11.8 PPG (second- best in the NFL) and 4.4 yards per play (third in the NFL). They should be able to feast on Lions rookie quarterback David Blough, who has struggled since his big first quarter on Thanksgiving. He had two passing TDs in that first quarter and has two since.
Pick: Packers -12.5
Indianapolis Colts (-3.5, 43.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Bearman: Some teams play out the string competing, and some teams are looking at tee times. Nothing going on in Jacksonville makes me think the Jags have no interest in anything other than ending the season. Tom Coughlin is gone, the quarterback situation is a mess and you'd hardly remember this team was a play away from the Super Bowl less than two years ago.
Jacksonville is 1-6 SU and ATS since November, with the lone win being the late comeback at Oakland after not showing up for the first three-plus quarters. The Colts were in the AFC South and wild-card races until a late-season, four-game slide against three current playoff teams, but they bounced back last week in dismantling Carolina, another team that is playing for tee times. FPI has this around Colts by 4.8, so you are already getting more than a point of value. If you can buy it down to -3 at some shops, almost two points of value vs. a dead Jaguars team should be good.
Pick: Colts -3.5 (shop/buy for -3s)
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-9, 46.5)
Bearman: The Chiefs' current five-game winning streak has more to do with their defense than the Patrick Mahomes-led offense. Just how good has Steve Spagnuolo's defense quietly been? They are holding opponents to 9.6 PPG during the streak and have allowed only three TDs (and one was a garbage time TD to the Raiders) since the bye week. The Raiders' 332 total yards (135 of which came in the last two drives after the game was out of hand) in Week 13 marked the last time a team topped 300 yards against Kansas City. The 4.3 yards per play allowed is fourth-best in the NFL during the past three weeks. I fully expect the Chiefs to score, but they've only topped 26 points once in the past five games.
The Chargers will play their last game as a 16-game road team, and it can't come soon enough. They are 1-5 SU and ATS in the past six games, and opponents on that list include Denver and Oakland (twice). Laying the nine points seems like a good play as well, but when the Chiefs look up at the scoreboard in the second half and see the Patriots putting away Miami and taking the bye, they might take a foot off the gas and Andy Reid could sit his stars for the fourth quarter -- another reason for the under. According to Bet Labs Sports, December divisional unders are 15-8 (65%) this season and hitting at a 60% clip since 2003 when the total is 45 or higher.
Pick: Under 46.5
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-15.5, 45)
Fortenbaugh: New England's 24-17 win over Buffalo last Saturday was a firsthand demonstration of how this iteration of the Patriots plans to find success in the postseason: run the ball, control the clock and play killer defense. New England rolled up 35 rushing attempts (tied for the most in 2019) and possessed the ball for 38:52 (second most in 2019), while the Bills ran just 53 offensive plays (second fewest in 2019) in their Week 16 AFC East showdown. For the season, the Patriots rank first in both scoring defense (13.2 PPG allowed) and points allowed on the road (13.1), second in plays per game (69.2) and fourth in time of possession (32:04).
Believe it or not, Miami is 4-4 over its past eight games, so the Dolphins aren't going down without a fight. Good, because I want to see that defense compete from start to finish. Take note that 11 of New England's 15 games have featured a grand total of 44 or fewer points.
Pick: Under 45
Walder: Can we take a minute to talk about how good Ryan Fitzpatrick has been this season? He ranks 10th in QBR despite playing behind an offensive line that has the worst pass block win rate in the league -- meaning at least one defender beats a Dolphins pass-blocker within 2.5 seconds of the snap more often than against any other team. PBWR is an ESPN metric that uses NFL Next Gen Stats data.
The result of FitzMagic's play is that the Dolphins have been only the eighth-least efficient team on offense this season, which is pretty remarkable considering what we thought of them at the beginning of the season.
On Sunday, Fitzpatrick and the Dolphins' offensive line are facing a Patriots team that boasts one of, if not the, best defenses this decade. But a funny thing about defense: it's less stable week to week than offense. And that, combined with Fitzpatrick's pluckiness, is likely why FPI+ thinks that 15.5 is just too high a line for New England to lay and why it likes the over.
Pick: Dolphins +15.5 and over 45
New Orleans Saints (-13, 7.5) at Carolina Panthers
Walder: Here's the thing about the Panthers' offense -- it actually never was good. Even before the team's current seven-game skid, Carolina ranked 21st in offensive efficiency, which is expected points added per play with garbage time down-weighted. It was the defense, not Kyle Allen nor Christian McCaffrey, that most contributed to the team's early-season success.
Fast forward to the present and both sides of the ball have dipped, with the offense dropping to 26th, one spot behind the Dolphins. This is a unit in disarray. It wasn't just Allen; their pass block win rate is third-worst, too. And now they're rolling with Will Grier, who in his debut threw up a QBR of... 9.
New Orleans will score against a Carolina defense that has shown over a larger body of work to actually be slightly below average, but I strongly suspect that Carolina's lackluster offense is the reason FPI+ likes the under in this one.
Pick: Under 46
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-1.5, 37)
Fortenbaugh: For the Bills in Week 17, the integral question comes down to whether the potential risk is worthy of the potential reward. By risk, I'm talking about debilitating injuries to any number of key contributors looking to lead this franchise to its first postseason victory since 1995. By reward, I'm referring to winning a game that would have absolutely no bearing whatsoever on Buffalo's playoff positioning, as the Bills are locked into the No. 5 seed no matter what unfolds in Week 17.
This is a franchise that will be making just its second postseason appearance since the infamous Music City Miracle back in 1999, so I'd say the risk far outweighs the reward. Don't even hint at the notion of tanking to Jets head coach Adam Gase and quarterback Sam Darnold, who are trying to transform a 1-7 start into a 6-2 finish. My money sides with the motivated Jets in this spot.
Pick: Jets +1.5
Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5, 45.5) at New York Giants
Youmans: The fickle Carson Wentz critics have been quieted during the Eagles' three-game winning streak. Wentz completed at least 30 passes in each of the three games and totaled six touchdowns with no interceptions despite working with a depleted receiver group. Philadelphia barely survived against the Giants, Redskins and Cowboys.
When these teams met three weeks ago, Eli Manning threatened to pull off the upset before fading in the fourth quarter. The Giants will look different in the rematch with Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley aiming to finish strong. Jones passed for 352 yards and five touchdowns and Barkley carried 22 times for 189 yards in a Week 16 win at Washington.
While the Eagles are banged up, the Giants are getting healthy and in good form. It will be no surprise if Philadelphia is in another life-or-death situation to win the game and the division in the final minutes, so can Wentz close the deal?
Pick: Giants +4.5
4 p.m. games
Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-3.5, 41)
Youmans: Jon Gruden's roller-coaster ride is ending with the Raiders (7-8) playing a meaningful game in Week 17. After a four-game losing streak, Oakland completed a season sweep of Philip Rivers and the Chargers to rise from the dead. According to ESPN's FPI, the Raiders' playoff chances were 0.4% going into Sunday of Week 16 and have improved to 12.0%. Oakland needs to win at Denver and get help (wins by the Colts, Ravens and Texans) to steal the AFC's sixth seed. It's better than a one-in-a-million shot, so as Lloyd Christmas would say, "So you're telling me there's a chance."
Derek Carr completed 26 of 30 passes against the Chargers. Carr ranks second in the league in completion percentage (71.1) and has 20 touchdowns with eight interceptions. A win in the finale would strengthen his case to be Gruden's quarterback in 2020 in Las Vegas. The Broncos are evaluating Drew Lock as a potential franchise QB, and there's no chance that first-year coach Vic Fangio will mail it in this week. But all things considered, the point-spread value appears to be with the underdog getting more than a field goal.
Pick: Raiders +3.5
8:20 game
San Francisco 49ers (-3, 47) at Seattle Seahawks
Bearman: I can freely admit that I was slow to jump on the Niners bandwagon this year, and I am not totally sold on them as the top team in the league. However, they have run the gantlet over the past few weeks, are a few plays from 15-0 and are in prime position to take care of business and be home for the NFC postseason.
In the past five weeks, Kyle Shanahan's troops have beaten playoff-bound Green Bay and New Orleans, lost in the last seconds to both AFC-leading Baltimore and an improved Atlanta team and knocked the rival Rams out of the playoffs. That has earned them a chance to take claim to the No. 1 seed and a little revenge against the Seattle team that knocked them from the ranks of the unbeatens in OT of Week 10.
I would normally not even consider laying points in prime time up in Seattle with the 12th man and everything on the line, but these are the same Seahawks who have already lost three times at home this season, including last week's debacle vs. the Cardinals. The situation at running back is so dire with injuries that they are dialing up the time machine to bring back Marshall Lynch and Robert Turbin to replace Chris Carson, Rashaad Penny and C.J. Prosise. With a made-up running game and facing a 49ers defense that is tops in the league against the pass, I don't see the Seahawks scoring much, unless they can locate the missing Tyler Lockett. I might be late to the San Fran bandwagon, but better late than never.
Pick: 49ers -3
Fortenbaugh: The Seahawks rank 27th in the NFL in points allowed at home (29.0 PPG), while the 49ers rank fourth in the league in points scored on the road (27.7 PPG), so the resumes in this Sunday night tilt certainly demonstrate a robust ability on behalf of both organizations to hang a big number given the venue.
For the Niners, pay particular attention to how this defense has performed in 2019 against mobile signal-callers such as Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson, who all rank in the top six in rushing at quarterback. In four games against those three quarterbacks, San Francisco is permitting an average of 24.5 points and 310.5 total yards. Against everybody else, the 49ers are surrendering an average of just 17.3 points and 265.3 total yards per game.
Season-ending injuries along the San Francisco defensive line (D.J. Jones, Ronald Blair, Damontre Moore) have ravaged the team's depth, forcing starters like Nick Bosa to play more snaps and, as a result, prove tired and less effective late in games. Take note that the Niners have been torched for 106 points over the past three weeks, which is good news for Wilson & Co. on Sunday.
Pick: Over 47 points
Clay: Jimmy Garoppolo has reached 21 completions in seven of 15 games, including five of his past eight. The latter isn't a coincidence, as the 49ers aren't blowing out teams like they were early in the season and coach Kyle Shanahan has called a more balanced offense after leaning heavily on the run in September and October. In fact, during Weeks 1-8, San Francisco called pass 45% of the time, compared to a 55% expected rate, which made them the league's run-heaviest game-script-adjusted offense. Since Week 9, however, the 49ers have called pass 61% of the time (61% expected), which ranks 16th. In turn, Garoppolo's completions per game have risen from 18.8 to 22.3.
Meanwhile, the Seahawks have allowed the second-most pass attempts and fifth-most completions to opposing quarterbacks. The 49ers are slight favorites in what figures to be a close game, which should help Garoppolo rack up more than 20 completions.
Pick: Over 20.5 completions (-110)