Every Friday during the season, ESPN betting analysts Joe Fortenbaugh, Doug Kezirian and Preston Johnson, sports betting deputy editor David Bearman, Fantasy's Mike Clay and Matt Youmans of the Vegas Stats & Information Network (VSiN) will tell us what they like from Week 1's Sunday NFL slate:
Note: Picks from Caesars Sportsbook lines as of Thursday night.
1 p.m. games
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (-3, Total: 40.5)
Kezirian: It's a new era for Gang Green where the offense leads the way and the defense is suspect. Specifically, the cornerback position is one of the NFL's weakest, with Trumaine Johnson recovering from a hamstring injury and a bunch of questions behind him. Meanwhile, Sam Darnold has looked sharp in limited preseason action, and all reports suggest the unit will play up-tempo under new head coach Adam Gase. For Buffalo, the defense is a strength, but the offense has shown it is capable of scoring, and for all of Josh Allen's faults, he does like to throw the ball down the field. Against the Jets' secondary and lack of edge rush, that could mean some big plays. The past three meetings all finished at least 13 points over the total, and I think both teams can reach 20 points.
Pick: Over 40.5
Clay: During 49 games during the 2014-17 seasons, Le'Veon Bell averaged 91.3 rushing yards per outing. That was while playing 88 percent of Pittsburgh's offensive snaps and handling just under 80% of the team's designed rushing attempts. Though he'll remain New York's clear feature back, Bell is fully expected to handle a lesser share of the workload with the Jets. Meanwhile, the matchup here isn't great. The Bills surrendered a lot of rushing touchdowns to running backs last season (17), but were better than average in rushing yardage allowed (1,496, ranked 18th). All indications are that rookie Ed Oliver will add to Buffalo's success in the trenches. Expect Bell to be closer to 68 yards in his Jets' debut.
Pick: Bell under 89.5 rushing yards
Johnson: For starters, I'm slightly more bearish on the Jets than the general market entering the 2019 season. Though Bell is going to be the focal point of the offense, I would still like to see Darnold make consistent throws in the passing game before everybody crowns the offense vastly improved. If Darnold is unable to beat teams through the air, defenses will load up the box against Bell. The Bills' defense ranked ninth in the NFL against the run this past season. My projection for Bell is 70.7 rushing yards, so I grabbed the under.
Pick: Bell under 89.5 rushing yards:
Baltimore Ravens (-6.5, 38.5) at Miami Dolphins
Fortenbaugh (teaser alert!): Never mind the fact that the Dolphins are already looking ahead toward the 2020 NFL draft and instead focus on the following: Under head coach John Harbaugh, the Ravens are 8-3 straight-up and 8-3 ATS in Week 1 while surrendering an average of just 14.9 PPG.
Now throw in the upgrade at offensive coordinator from Marty Mornhinweg to Greg Roman for the Ravens, as well as the downgrade at left tackle from Laremy Tunsil to Julie'n Davenport for the Dolphins and you have the first half of a successful 6-point teaser.
Pick: Baltimore -0.5 (first half of 6-point teaser with Dallas)
Johnson: I project 50.8 rushing yards for Lamar Jackson in this matchup against a Dolphins defense that ranked 28th in the NFL in opponent yards per rush in 2018. Miami certainly hasn't made any moves to improve its roster for the short term this offseason, so I'm siding with my numbers and betting the over.
Pick: Jackson over 43.5 rushing yards
Kezirian: I am swallowing some pride here, as this sure seems like the squarest play on the board. I don't care. The NFL betting market is tough enough to beat so I am jumping on Baltimore and disregarding my vanity. For lack of a better word, Miami is tanking. Do the Dolphins have some competent players? Of course. Can Ryan Fitzpatrick occasionally work some magic? Absolutely. But Miami's offensive line is a wreck and the mammals lack firepower at the skill positions. Additionally, their pass rush is nonexistent. I fully expect Jackson to thrive against a weak defense. He looked terrible in his last game, which was a playoff defeat to the Chargers. This is not the same situation. Ravens should roll.
Pick: Baltimore -6.5 and part of 6-point teaser at -.5 (with Philadelphia)
Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings (-4, 47.5)
Johnson: My projection for this matchup is Falcons +2.1. I'm fully invested in Atlanta this season and I'm rolling that into Week 1 as well. The current spread implies that the Vikings are the better team on a neutral field, and I don't think that is the case. When I think the number should be closer to +2 and we are getting anything over a field goal, it's generally an auto-bet for me. When it's the team that I am the most bullish on compared to the market entering the season, I'm absolutely on board.
Pick: Atlanta +4
Youmans: The combo of Matt Ryan and Julio Jones tends to inflate most expectations for the Falcons, who have fundamental problems with a weak offensive line. Ryan was sacked 42 times last season, when Minnesota's defense recorded 50 sacks (third in the NFL). The Vikings also ranked third in pass defense, giving up 196.3 yards per game, after leading the league in scoring defense (15.8 PPG) in 2017. Kirk Cousins now has the support system to be more successful. The ground attack is legit with Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison running behind a better offensive line. Minnesota coach Mike Zimmer is 11-4-1 ATS at home the past two years, and the Falcons are on a 4-12 ATS run in the regular season on the road.
Pick: Minnesota -4
Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns (-5.5, 45.5)
Fortenbaugh: Few people seem to remember, but the Titans finished the 2018 campaign ranked third in the NFL in scoring defense (18.9 PPG) and tied for sixth in opponent yards per play (5.3). Additionally, head coach Mike Vrabel loves to run the football (ninth in rushing attempts in 2018) and quarterback Marcus Mariota isn't exactly the second coming of Dan Marino (tied-13th in yards per attempt). Meanwhile, Cleveland boasts a ferocious pass rush led by Myles Garrett and an improving secondary anchored by Denzel Ward. This game should be tighter than most are predicting.
Pick: Under 45.5
Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles (-9.5, 45)
Johnson: This line has been climbing since it opened at -8, and I still think there is value before it reaches double digits. My projection is Eagles -10.7, and it appears there is more downside to this Washington team than upside this season (especially with the Trent Williams situation still unresolved). The hype surrounding a healthy Carson Wentz is deserved, and I'm thrilled to buy on my third-highest-rated team in the NFC playing in their Week 1 home opener against my second-worst-rated team at -9.5 (only the Cardinals rate lower).
Pick: Philadelphia -9.5
Kezirian (teaser alert!): The Redskins have a limited offense and will have trouble hanging with Philly's powerful offense. All reports indicate Wentz is poised for a fantastic season, now that he was able to shed the knee brace. Washington's defense is fairly decent so covering double digits might be a tough ask. I like teasing this line down.
Pick: Philadelphia -3.5 (part of 6-point teaser with Baltimore)
Los Angeles Rams (-2.5, 50) at Carolina Panthers
Bearman: I'm always worried when all the numbers point in one direction, but sometimes the angles are too good to pass up. Super Bowl runners-up are 3-16 ATS in Week 1 dating to 2000. Put the team on the road and it's 1-12. That's right Rams ... looking at you. As for needing another reason to back the Panthers, the public tends to jump on returning playoff teams in Week 1 when playing a team that did not make it the previous year (especially one with a losing record) and the numbers would tell you to take advantage of that. In the past 10 years, non-playoff teams coming off a losing season are 30-15-1 (.667) ATS in Week 1 when playing a team off a playoff appearance. Don't get me wrong, I love the Rams this year, but if Cam Newton can stay on the field, the Panthers can steal this one.
Pick: Panthers +2.5 (buy to 3 and consider in ML parlays)
Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5, 51.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Clay: Jacksonville's defense might have underwhelmed a bit last season, but it still shut down opposing quarterbacks. The unit gave up 499 pass attempts (fourth fewest), 312 completions (third fewest), 3,354 passing yards (second fewest), 6.7 yards per attempt (fourth lowest) and a 63% completion rate (fifth lowest). Only two teams cleared 286 passing yards against Jacksonville last season (only one did in 2017) and, though one happened to be Patrick Mahomes, he barely cleared this line (313) and that game was in Kansas City. Mahomes averaged 318.6 passing yards per game last season, so expecting him to fall just short of that in a road game against one of the league's best defenses is far from a stretch. Mahomes figures to land closer to 284 yards this week.
Pick: Mahomes under 312.5 passing yards
4 p.m. games
Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5, 44.5)
Johnson: Andrew Luck's retirement is obviously significant in regard to the expected points to be scored in Colts' games this season, but the market has already accounted for that after moving down from 47.5. Where I think the edge still lies is the trainwreck that is the Chargers' offensive line (and the absence of running back Melvin Gordon). The expected Week 1 starters:
RT Sam Tevi (ranks 78th of 80 offensive tackles at Pro Football Focus)
RG Michael Schofield III (graded a net negative in both run-blocking and pass-blocking)
C Mike Pouncey (ranks 29th of 39 centers)
LG Dan Feeney (ranks 80th of 81 offensive guards)
LT Trent Scott (a second-year undrafted free agent with only 125 career snaps)
Combined with my expectation that the Colts probably slow the game down, scoring will be at a premium in this Week 1 matchup. My projection is just 42.8, and I was cautious when attributing the potential severity of the cluster injuries for Los Angeles on the offensive line. There are plenty of 45s in the market as well, so as usual shop around for the best possible number -- every half-point matters.
Pick: Under 44.5
Johnson: The analytics point to regression this season from Mike Williams, and fantasy football participants have been hearing it all offseason. While he is expected to regress, the majority of that production is in the number of touchdowns Williams caught this past season (10 on 66 targets). His yards per target at 10.1 in 2018 still projects to be fairly accurate (I'm at 9.5 for the 2019 season). If Gordon were playing, I would have Williams set to get six targets in this matchup and 56.9 yards. Gordon is out, so there is certainly upside to Williams' potential volume' in Week 1 outside of the 11.4-yard discrepancy between the market and my projections. I'm betting over.
Pick: Williams over 45.5 receiving yards:
Youmans: When the public overreacts to negative news, that's the time to buy low. The Colts are down and out without Luck, right? Maybe not. This is a chance to play the Fallen Star Theory: In the first game after a star player goes down (Luck's retirement, in this case), the rest of the team elevates its play to prove it can win without him. Indianapolis coach Frank Reich is a sharp playcaller, and this is a well-rounded team that can win with Jacoby Brissett. The Chargers also have personnel problems without Gordon and injured safety Derwin James, who was a difference-maker for the defense. Philip Rivers is always better in the road 'dog role. L.A. went 2-5 ATS as a home favorite last year. Expect a great effort from the Colts. The initial four-point line adjustment was an overreaction. I took +7 but this still is a play at 6.5.
Pick: Indianapolis +6.5 (shop for 7)
Cincinnati Bengals at Seattle Seahawks (-9.5, 44)
Youmans: This play is mostly about the number. The public will want no part of this ugly underdog, so if the line goes to 10, as expected, some sharper money will finally show at double digits. Last year, the Bengals were 6-2 ATS as road 'dogs, with straight-up wins at Atlanta and Indianapolis for former coach Marvin Lewis. Seattle had the No. 1 rushing offense in the league, and though Cincinnati was weak against the run, the Bengals' strength this season is probably their defensive front. First-year coach Zac Taylor plans to utilize three wideouts and a tight end when he unveils his offense. In A.J. Green's absence, quarterback Andy Dalton will need a lot of help from wideout Tyler Boyd and running back Joe Mixon. If a maligned offensive line holds up, the Bengals can stay within this big number. This is not a play at 9.5 and only a small play at 10. The bookmakers will need Cincinnati, which is the contrarian side.
Pick: Pass at 9.5, Cincinnati at +10
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-7.5, 44.5)
Fortenbaugh (teaser alert!): In regard to the second half of our selection, Ezekiel Elliott is signed, sealed and delivered for a Cowboys team that features a highly underrated defensive unit set to host an Eli Manning-led Giants squad that is 0-4 SU and ATS in its past four encounters with the Cowboys.
Pick: Dallas -1.5 (second half of 6-point teaser with Baltimore)
Youmans: Zeke is back from Cabo as a rich man and the Cowboys are riding high again. The preseason in Dallas was all about drama and distractions. Elliott's hyped return could influence the betting public to drive this line to 7.5 before kickoff, so wait for a better number to pop. Elliott says he's the best running back in the NFL, but the Giants might have a better one. Saquon Barkley, a dynamic every-down back, accounted for 2,028 yards (1,307 rushing, 721 receiving) and 15 touchdowns as a rookie. Barkley totaled 91 receptions and will again be a major part of the passing game while the Giants figure out their problematic wideout situation. Manning went 6-1 ATS as a road 'dog in 2018 -- failing to cover only in a 20-13 loss at Dallas -- and the Giants are 10-4 in this role since 2017. The Giants went 4-4 SU with a pair of one-point losses in the final eight games of 2018. It's a contrarian opinion, but Eli could have something left and will be playing with an edge.
Pick: New York +7.5
Johnson: I'm only projecting Elliott for 84.4 rushing yards in this matchup against the Giants, and that doesn't account for the reports that he is going to be limited to just 20-25 snaps. He has been limited in practice this week, so they certainly seem to be cautious with easing Elliott back into the offense after returning to the team. Under 101.5 rushing yards is great value here anyway with the extra upside his snaps are limited in Week 1.
Pick: Elliott under 101.5 rushing yards:
Detroit Lions (-2.5, 46.5) at Arizona Cardinals
Youmans: Last year's numbers are mostly irrelevant when it comes to the Cardinals, who had the league's lowest-scoring offense at 14.1 points per game. New coach Kliff Kingsbury's offense is a mystery. There was nothing impressive or innovative on display in the preseason, but Kingsbury said that was the plan. It's possible he has several tricks up his sleeve, and diminutive rookie quarterback Kyler Murray will be The Next Big Thing. We have to see it to believe it. If Detroit coach Matt Patricia learned anything from Bill Belichick, he will have his defense prepared for Kingsbury and Murray. It is relevant that the Lions ranked 25th in scoring offense (20.3 PPG) last season, when Detroit stayed under the total in its final seven games.
Pick: Under 46.5
Bearman: Does Murray need some time to be as good as they expect? Of course. It's the same with the Kingsbury offense, which is why Youmans' play on the under is smart. However, QBs making their first career start in Week 1 are 9-1-1 since start of 2013 and 8-0-1 as a 'dog. That opened my eyes. The other thing about this game that caught my attention is the simple fact that the Lions are favored by almost a field goal on the road vs. anyone. It's the same Lions team that went 6-10 last season and is projected for last place in the NFC North. ESPN's Football Power Index has this as a coin-flip game, so value is on the home team getting points.
Pick: Arizona +2.5 (shop for 3)
San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (PK, 50.5)
Fortenbaugh: Don't underestimate a 49ers pass rush that now features DeForest Buckner, Dee Ford and Nick Bosa to name just a few of the franchise's recent first-round selections manning the defensive line. For those of you who saw what happened to Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston in preseason Week 3 vs. Cleveland, I'm sure you're champing at the bit to bet the over on the combined sack total for this matchup (me too!). In regard to the San Francisco offense, expect quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo to exhibit some rust while not only bouncing back from an ACL injury suffered last September, but in trying to find a rhythm with a relatively young and unproven wide receiving unit. Honestly, I'm a bit surprised the total for this game is north of 50 considering Tampa Bay head coach Bruce Arians' penchant for playing smashmouth football.
Pick: Under 50.5
8:20 p.m. game
Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots (-5.5, 50)
Fortenbaugh: Tom Brady is 42, Rob Gronkowski is enjoying retirement, Julian Edelman is nursing a thumb injury and center David Andrews was recently hospitalized because of a blood clot in his lungs. Does that sound like a team ready to hammer the always competitive Steelers? Speaking of the Steelers, I'm very intrigued to see how carefree they play now that the Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown distractions are behind them. Oh, I almost forgot. Remember the last time the Pats hung a Super Bowl banner at Gillette Stadium in Week 1? That happened to be the same night Alex Smith and the Kansas City Chiefs strode into town and rocked the champs 42-27 on their home turf.
Pick: Pittsburgh +5.5