The 2018 college football season is kicking off, so now is the time to lock down those value bets.
Two of ESPN Chalk's college football betting experts, Phil Steele and Will Harris, are here to help you find value. Additionally, ESPN Analytics expert Seth Walder applies Football Power Index (FPI) and our brand-new Playoff Predictor to see where you might be able to find good returns. They give their best bets in the national title, win total, Heisman, conference title and Game of the Year categories.
For an individual look at how to bet on each of the top 25 teams, according to ESPN College Football Rankings, this season, check out our team-by-team previews.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook unless otherwise noted, as of Aug. 28.
Best title bets
Washington Huskies (15-1)
Steele: Chris Petersen has his best team ever, including his days at Boise State. Washington has nine returning starters on defense, and I rate the Huskies the fifth-best defense in the country. Jake Browning will also be a Heisman front-runner. Running back Myles Gaskin is back and has three seasons of 1,300 or more rushing yards. I rate their offensive line No. 13 in the country, and they are the eighth-most experienced team in college football. If they get past Auburn in the season opener, the Huskies will be favorites in all of their remaining games.
Walder (to reach the College Football Playoff at +240): Washington finished eighth in FPI last season and ninth in total efficiency. It is returning its head coach and 17 starters, including Browning. Yes, the Huskies have a critical 50/50 game against Auburn in Week 1, but they are the best team in their own conference and host Stanford this year. What more do you need to know? Playoff Predictor gives Washington a 41 percent chance to be in football's final four.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish (30-1)
Steele: Last season I had the Irish as my No. 1 most improved team in the country and they went from four wins in 2016 to 10 in 2017. In November they were 8-1 and ranked No. 3 in the country before finishing the season 2-2. Notre Dame returns nine starters on defense and Brandon Wimbush at quarterback. Notre Dame's schedule is not easy, but its four true road games are at Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, Northwestern and USC. The Irish get Michigan, Stanford and Florida State all at home. My surprise team list is comprised of teams not in the top 10 that I think can win a national title -- Notre Dame is No. 1 on that list.
Walder: Does anyone really want to bet on Wimbush? On Brian Kelly? The answer is no and no. But this year, it's the move. Along with the 8-1 odds just to reach the playoff, the Fighting Irish have two of our biggest values on the board. And it's no surprise because Playoff Predictor -- which gives Notre Dame a 42 percent chance to reach the playoff -- is farther away from the public consensus on Notre Dame than possibly any other top team. Predicting independents is tricky, but based on our study of the committee's rankings, our sense is all else being equal, the Fighting Irish will likely lose out to a Power 5 conference champion, but beat a non-champion. And while all else is never exactly equal, what we're really talking about here is the situation in which Notre Dame goes 11-1 and essentially needs at least two conference champions to have at least two losses.
The chances of two of the Big 12, Big Ten and Pac-12 having a two-loss champion? That's 67 percent, and opens the door for two SEC teams or someone like the Fighting Irish. We expect Notre Dame to be straight-up nasty on defense, returning five starters from a top-10 unit (in opponent-adjusted efficiency), so it has the talent on that side of the ball. There is no truly brutal game on the team's 12-game schedule.
Wisconsin Badgers (20-1)
Steele: The Badgers lost to Ohio State by just six points in the Big Ten title game last season, so they were only one play away from making the playoff. Wisconsin has the best offensive line in college football, a Heisman Trophy favorite in running back Jonathan Taylor, a three-year starter at quarterback and an upgraded receiving corps. I also rate the defense as No. 10 in the country. Wisconsin does have to face Iowa, Michigan and Penn State on the road, but this is Paul Chryst's best team yet, and Wisconsin is the overwhelming favorite to win the Big Ten West and get to the conference title game.
Georgia Bulldogs (6-1)
Harris: Whenever Nick Saban's Alabama relinquishes its spot atop college football, the heir to the throne is Kirby Smart's Georgia Bulldogs. I'm not telling you it's necessarily going to be this season, but whenever it happens, you can take this to the bank: Georgia. Is. Next. At 6-1, I'd rather count on Georgia arriving now than any of the other favorites.
Michigan State Spartans (30-1)
Harris: I'm not enthused about any of the dark horses, but I could consider Michigan State at 30-1. The Spartans are loaded coming off a 10-3 season and the biggest offseason question we had was how a program accustomed to playing the "no respect" card and overachieving as a Big Ten hunter would fare with expectations more in line with the league's hunted. From what we've seen so far, this team has answered the call and looks like a hungrier, humbler group than the 2016 team that disappointed following up 2015's playoff berth. I like the way this team's mojo is developing and expect it to repeat last season's success in close games. Getting both Ohio State and Michigan at home gives Sparty a chance.
Conference title bets
Navy Midshipmen to win the AAC (8-1)
Steele: The AAC West is up for grabs, and Navy hosts Memphis in Week 2, which could go a long way in determining the West champion. Memphis is also working in a new quarterback and loses receiver Anthony Miller to the NFL. Navy is 18-6 in AAC play the past three seasons and could find itself in the title game for the second time in three seasons.
TCU Horned Frogs to win the Big 12 (5-1)
Steele: The Horned Frogs have the Big 12's best defense, and while they are young on the offensive line and at quarterback, those are two positions that head coach Gary Patterson develops well. The Horned Frogs also have my No. 3-rated special-teams unit. The Big 12 is wide open this season, which gives TCU a good shot at winning the conference.
Florida State Seminoles to win the ACC (7-1)
Steele: The Seminoles won only six regular-season games last campaign, but in Death Valley, the Seminoles had the ball on the Clemson side of the field with six minutes left in the fourth quarter, down just three points. They get Clemson at home this season and are a much-improved team overall.
Texas Longhorns to win the Big 12 (3-1)
Harris: Texas fans seemed disappointed with last season's 7-6 campaign, but this program was in shambles when Tom Herman arrived. Turning in the program's best scoring defense since the national runner-up 2009 squad was impressive, as was the buy-in Herman achieved from the team. The Mack Brown-to-Charlie Strong-to-Tom Herman chain represents three very different approaches and some dramatic cultural upheaval. That was exacerbated by widespread fan and booster unrest and the turnover of longtime athletic department leadership. Herman's job last season was a lot tougher than his fan base realized, and this season's team is poised to build on that progress and return to double-digit wins for the first time since the Colt McCoy era ended.
Temple Owls to win the AAC (20-1)
Harris: If you're looking for a long shot, look to the American, because none of the AAC powers is really entrenched at the top and each favorite has issues. South Florida, Memphis and Houston lost well over half of last season's offensive production and UCF is breaking in a new staff and schemes after a historic unbeaten season. Even though a once-robust price has crashed to 20-1, I'd still prefer a tough Temple team with one of the league's best defenses and an offense that came alive down the stretch last year after a quarterback change to rising senior Frank Nutile.
Georgia Bulldogs to win the SEC (5-2)
Walder: Alabama gets all the love from the book here, coming in at -180. That probably matches the general and incessant hype around that team. After all, it is Bama, and it is the defending national champion. But don't forget that Georgia is the defending conference champ, and there's good reason to believe that Alabama is less likely to win the SEC than Georgia -- even if it's more likely to reach the playoff and win the national championship (see: last season). FPI is willing to concede, by the slimmest of slim margins, that Alabama is more likely to be the better team of this pair, but Alabama has to contend with Auburn in its own division, which is why Georgia is FPI's favorite to win the conference at 42 percent.
Georgia has to play Auburn, as well, but there's no one else that can challenge Georgia for the division the way the Tigers can the Crimson Tide. If Auburn beats both Georgia and Alabama, the Bulldogs would have a 64 percent chance to win the SEC East, while the Crimson Tide would have just a 14 percent chance to win the SEC West, per FPI.
Memphis Tigers to win the AAC (3-1)
Walder: UCF gets the pub as a sort-of, not-really national champion, but it isn't the best team in the AAC, per our numbers. McKenzie Milton is back for the Knights, but the team is returning only 11 starters and has a new head coach. Even if you think highly of Josh Heupel, there's a little more uncertainty there. Meanwhile, Memphis is bringing back 15 starters, a good part of the reason why FPI thinks it is the best team in the conference. In addition FPI thinks that UCF's main in-division competition (South Florida) is slightly superior to that of Memphis (Houston). Vegas and FPI strongly disagree on this conference, as our model gives Memphis a 49 percent chance to win the AAC title.
Michigan State Spartans to win the Big Ten (12-1)
Walder: FPI is projecting a pretty large jump in performance for the Spartans, on the back of Mark Dantonio's 19 returning starters, including QB Brian Lewerke. Look, no one's saying Michigan State is the favorite here; in fact, FPI thinks that it's only the fourth-most likely team to win the conference. But 12-1 is just too good of a price to pass up. The Big Ten East is a crowded division, but there's no denying Michigan State is among the contenders, and it's the one that pays out the most. Our model gives the Spartans a 14 percent shot at the conference crown (Note: Penn State at 6-1 is a slight value according to FPI, too).
Walder's honorable mention: Marshall Thundering Herd to win Conference USA (4-1)
Season win total bets
Boston College Eagles (over 6.5)
Steele: Steve Addazio has finished 7-6 in four of his five seasons and this is by far the best team he has fielded at Boston College. The Eagles opened up just 2-4 last season, but running back AJ Dillon took over, rushed for 1,589 yards in four starts and Boston College went 5-1 to finish the regular season. Dillon returns and will run behind my No. 6-rated offensive line in the country. I have been talking to Coach Addazio each year since he arrived at Boston College and this is the best receiving corps he has fielded here, as the top six receivers all return. The Eagles also have a veteran quarterback in Anthony Brown and my No. 19 defense. Nine or 10 wins would not surprise me.
UCLA Bruins (under 5.5)
Steele: Chip Kelly had fantastic success as a college coach and he achieved double-digit wins in all four seasons at Oregon. He takes over a UCLA team that has plenty of highly touted recruits, so I could paint a scenario for instant success. I look at this the other way, though, and view this season as a rebuilding year for the Bruins. Kelly has not coached in college since 2012, and he is changing the schemes on both offense and defense and must learn the players' strengths and weaknesses. UCLA is No. 118 on my experience chart and lost starting quarterback Josh Rosen to the NFL. The Bruins return only 12 starters and face the toughest schedule in the country as they draw Washington, Stanford and Oregon out of the Pac-12 North and face Oklahoma and Fresno State in nonconference play.
Ohio Bobcats (over 8.5 at South Point)
Steele: Ohio should have one of the most explosive offenses in the country led by quarterback Nathan Rourke, running back A.J. Ouellette and wide receiver Papi White. The defense will return only four starters but should still be reliable. When I ran my nine sets of power ratings into the 2018 schedule, all nine sets called for double-digit wins with two sets of power ratings at 12-0 and the majority at 11-1. That makes over 8.5 an excellent play.
Minnesota Golden Gophers (over 6)
Harris: I was very impressed with what P.J. Fleck accomplished with a threadbare roster last season, and now in Season 2 Fleck's "Row the Boat" culture has taken hold. The Gophers are starting a true freshman at quarterback, but the offense will have improved line play and a pair of difference-makers in workhorse senior tailback Rodney Smith and deep-ball artist Tyler Johnson, who averaged nearly 20 yards per catch last season. A forgiving schedule sees just one of the top four East teams appear alongside Maryland and Indiana as crossover opponents, and the Gophers will likely be prohibitive underdogs in only two or three games.
Tennessee Volunteers (under 5.5)
Harris: The Tennessee program is in disarray, and that will persist until longtime power brokers Phil Fulmer and Jimmy Haslam are rolled out in favor of new decision-makers. One thing is certain: This is a large, proud, hungry fan base that is beyond ready to see this SEC blue blood reclaim its rightful place as a top-15 program. Vols fans just endured five seasons of mediocrity under Butch Jones. If things don't improve very fast under Jeremy Pruitt -- and there's no reason to think that they will -- the fan base will see its next coach off after something closer to two seasons than five. At some point, the administration will go too, Tennessee will finally land a top-shelf head coach and give him the authority he needs and the Vols will be back in the national rankings where they belong. In the meantime, fading this bunch is the day's business.
Heisman Trophy bets
Jake Browning, QB, Washington Huskies (25-1)
Steele: Browning had decent numbers last season -- completing 68.5 percent of his passes with 19 touchdown passes and five interceptions -- but those numbers were far below expectations. Two seasons ago, he passed for 3,340 yards with 43 touchdown passes and just nine interceptions. I project Washington to make the College Football Playoff this year and Browning has a big opening national television game against Auburn that could get his campaign started.
Harris: The Heisman hasn't gone to a quarterback who wasn't a rushing threat since Sam Bradford a decade ago, but at longer odds, Browning certainly has an otherwise tempting profile: star producer on a championship-caliber team poised for a monster senior season as the leader of a loaded offense.
Trace McSorley, QB, Penn State Nittany Lions (15-1)
Steele: McSorley is like a coach on the field and last season he passed for 3,570 yards with 28 touchdown passes and 10 interceptions. Look for him to take on more responsibility with Saquon Barkley now in the NFL. The offense could be just as potent as last season when the Nittany Lions averaged 41.1 points per game. Penn State faces only one team on the road that had a winning record last season (Michigan) and is a legitimate national title contender, which always helps a Heisman bid.
D'Andre Swift, RB, Georgia Bulldogs (30-1)
Steele: Last season, Swift was one of three NFL running backs on the Georgia roster and this year he is without a doubt the top guy. He is running behind my No. 2-rated offensive line in the country. Georgia will be favored in every game and is a legitimate national title contender.
Jonathan Taylor, RB, Wisconsin Badgers (8-1)
Harris: Bryce Love has earned the top spot in the betting order, but I prefer this Wisconsin workhorse in 2018. The sophomore was just 23 yards shy of 2,000 in his debut last season, but scored only 13 touchdowns. This season he has bulked up and gained power without losing speed, and that should make him stronger at finishing runs and more of a goal-line threat. The Badgers also return the entire offensive line unit, a group that might be the nation's best. Taylor will have plenty of chances to reach the second level quickly and untouched, and a back with his vision can do damage in big chunks. Since this is still very much a run-first team, an improved passing game will probably help open things up for the backs more than it cuts into their production.
Game of the Year bets
Texas Longhorns (+5) vs. Oklahoma Sooners
Oct. 6 in Dallas
Harris: This number has already dropped a touchdown since opening, but the wrong side is still favored. Bob Stoops gave Oklahoma a coaching edge in this matchup for years, and recently the Sooners have had better players as well. Those advantages have been eliminated, more thanks to the influx of quality coaches, players and culture accompanying Tom Herman's arrival than because Lincoln Riley or the Oklahoma program is lacking. This season, Texas is fed up and laser focused on winning this game, and the Longhorns have a grueling September schedule that will leave them battle-tested entering this matchup. The favorite hasn't covered this game since 2012.
Michigan Wolverines (+7.5) at Ohio State Buckeyes
Nov. 24
Harris: The prevailing narrative is that Michigan has been very good under Jim Harbaugh, but not good enough. The offensive woes, the failure to finish better than third place in the Big Ten East Division and the 1-5 record versus rivals Michigan State and Ohio State are all sources of angst. Harbaugh isn't exactly on the hot seat, but the natives are restless. There's a sense that Harbaugh needs to produce more this season and to fix his side of the ball. You can bet he feels it, too. So, what's going to happen?
The most likely scenario is that this elite coach answers the bell and turns in a big season, replete with a better showing against his rivals and a better one from his offense. In Shea Patterson, Harbaugh finally has his man at quarterback, and I'm expecting the head coach to be much more personally and directly involved in calling the offense this year, after plenty of recent staff turnover on that side of the ball. Put those improvements alongside one of the nation's top defenses and one of the most talented place-kickers and you've got an elite team. I'll be shocked if the Wolverines are getting this kind of weight come November from Ohio State.