Every Monday throughout the college football season, an early betting look provides the essential grab bag of numbers, trends, reads and concepts. Join us for opening week as we forecast the rise of an ACC dark horse, reveal what Mississippi State's status as a preseason darling means for bettors, plus break down a unique challenge for one Big 12 coach and a high-stakes opener for another.
Portfolio checkup
In portfolio checkup, we explore which teams we're buying and selling, and why.
Buy:
This is Steve Addazio's best team in his six years at Chestnut Hill.
Sell:
Last year, Lincoln Riley inherited a ready-made team from Bob Stoops when the latter stepped down in June. Stoops had already done what Riley is tasked with doing for the first time this year -- forging a team from scratch, starting in January. Riley will have to do it without Baker Mayfield and the core group of now-graduated team leaders who helped guarantee that last year's squad would be player-led. We're fans of Riley, who did a fantastic job last year. That said, 2018 is a steeper, unfamiliar challenge, and one made more difficult by a quarterback shared with another sport and a defense without a single obvious all-conference performer.
Hold:
Raise your hand if you've got Mississippi State pegged as the fourth-best team in the SEC. Raise it again if you wouldn't have said that in February. Raise it one last time if you can't exactly say why that's the case.
What exactly has changed to cause the Bulldogs to emerge from a crowded SEC middle-class that includes LSU, Texas A&M, Missouri, South Carolina and Florida to near-unanimous status as the league's fourth-best team? The gaudy returning-starter count and stud quarterback were known commodities before spring, but the State hype machine didn't hit its full stride until the summer. Now, the Bulldogs are the darlings of bettors and pollsters alike.
The zeal with which the fanbase has embraced new boss Joe Moorhead and the positive vibes out of Starkville are undeniable, but this is still a new, lightly experienced staff installing new schemes at a school that doesn't have many trophies in the case. We're not saying that State won't justify its top-20 ranking in the end, but we're not close to sold yet, either. What we do know is that this team has seen heavy media attention and betting action this offseason, and coming into Week 1, the bandwagon is already full and all value is tapped. Even if you're buying that the Bulldogs are legit and you end up being right, the best edges will probably not be in September.
Slate standout
Slate standout provides games that we'll be studying closely this week and what we're looking for out of the contest.
Texas Tech Red Raiders (-2) vs. Ole Miss Rebels (Houston)
One regime facing a referendum right out of the chute is Kliff Kingsbury's Texas Tech program. The popular Kingsbury barely held on to his job last season, and probably can't afford a fourth losing season in Year 6. We're not that optimistic about Kingsbury's long-term future in Lubbock, but this year could well end up being his best. Fourth-year defensive coordinator David Gibbs' takeaway-oriented schemes have gradually taken root with what will this year be the most veteran defensive unit of Kingsbury's tenure. This should be the best offensive line Tech has fielded in that span, as well.
There is hope that the team he almost didn't get to coach could be Kingsbury's best, but the schedule is tough, and an opening loss risks the fanbase checking out early. Kingsbury has gone 1-11 over the past four years versus the first three conference opponents on the 2018 slate, and are likely underdogs in six Big 12 games. This a fair fight against an SEC team to kick off a "put up or shut up" season. Tech and its head coach need this one more than Ole Miss does, and we'll be watching to see if the Red Raiders display an undercurrent of urgency to all the usual opening-week excitement and enthusiasm.
Handicapper's toolbox
Handicapper's toolbox will provide a different concept every Monday, along with how to apply it on Saturday.
Know how programs have matched up in the past so that you will recognize when either prices or circumstances are out of line with historical norms.
Boston College has its best team in years, but the price Eagles' backers are being asked to lay -- UMass (+18.5) -- isn't sufficiently different than what far-lesser Eagles squads handed out in the other three meetings between these schools this decade. Boston College took those contests by an average score of 34-9, covering as 12-, 15- and 17-point favorites.
The 2018 Eagles shape up to be much stronger than average, but the 2018 Minutemen do not profile as an outlier. Typical Boston College teams haven't been asked to lay big weight often, but they have certainly handled Massachusetts. We don't see why the best team out of Chestnut Hill since the Matt Ryan era shouldn't hold serve as well. One constant in the Massachusetts program that doesn't bode well for the underdog's chances against the bruising Eagles: The Minutemen have surrendered at least 192 rushing yards per game for six straight seasons.
Chalk bits
Chalk bits will provide observations, issues, clues and questions from around each week's slate.
The Northwestern Wildcats (+3) have beaten the Purdue Boilermakers in four straight years, and Purdue hasn't been favored in the series since 2009. Both Boilermaker quarterbacks have seen plenty of the Wildcats. David Blough has 81 career pass attempts versus Northwestern, while Elijah Sindelar has 75.
The South Carolina Gamecocks have a poor historical track record as a big favorite over FCS teams or FBS competition from weaker leagues, and Will Muschamp has a lousy record in such spots, both at Florida, and now in Columbia, where he's gone 0-4 ATS laying more than a score. The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (+29.5) will again have coach Joe Moglia on the sideline. The Ameritrade CEO-turned-coach missed last year with a health issue.
The Vanderbilt Commodores (-3.5) are 15-3 versus the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders, and have beaten them in each of the past three years -- all competitively priced affairs. Before that, the two hadn't met since 2005, the year before 13th year MTSU boss Rick Stockstill arrived in Murfreesboro. The teams aren't scheduled to play again for at least a decade, so this will be the last crack at Vanderbilt for the Stockstill family. Brent Stockstill is Rick's son, and he's also a sixth-year senior, the school's all-time passing pacesetter and the undisputed team leader. An in-state SEC school a half hour away is a big scalp for the Blue Raiders, and you can be certain that the Stockstills have put everything they have into their last chance to bring the program a rare win over the Commodores. Vanderbilt coach Derek Mason is just 4-8-1 ATS as a favorite, with two of the four covers coming against MTSU.
Over the past three years, the SMU Mustangs have outscored the North Texas Mean Green by 55 points, winning all three matchups en route to covering lines of of 6, 7 and 13 points. This week, though, North Texas (-3.5) is favored in the series for the first time since 2014.
All six of the FBS teams in action in "Week Zero" on Aug. 25 are also playing the following week. Each will have the benefit of having already played a game, but their opponents will have the benefit of a game of 2018 film. Of the six, the Colorado State Rams and New Mexico State Aggies both have a short week, with the Aggies' situation the worse of the two: After losing at home to the Wyoming Cowboys, 29-7, NMSU must travel to the Minnesota Golden Gophers for a game on Thursday, August 30.
The Stanford Cardinal (-14.5) and the Texas Longhorns (-13.5) are both in obvious revenge spots this week. The Maryland Terrapins humiliated Texas, 51-41 in Austin, in Tom Herman's first game as coach last September. The San Diego State Aztecs held Stanford to 254 yards in a game that featured a late fourth-quarter power outage.