In April I gave out my picks for the best value selections to win the Heisman Trophy. I also mentioned how the players with the best stats from last year are actually not only competing against the rest of the field, but must top their stats from last season as well.
It's now July and William Hill has updated odds to win the Heisman and added some new names. I still like all the players I previously mentioned, but here are a few others to look at for 2017. They all have long odds with lots of value.
Bryce Love, RB, Stanford Cardinal (100-1)
Love figures to be the focal point of the Stanford offense this year and did well in games he filled in for Christian McCaffrey. Love is a little more explosive than McCaffrey, and will be running behind an outstanding offensive line. He will be used more as a receiver and in the return game as well this year. Coach David Shaw calls him one of the most dynamic running backs in college football. Heisman contenders are helped by team success and Stanford hosts Washington this season, so they have a shot at getting to the Pac-12 title game. He'll be the star player of the offense and the 100-1 odds give you a lot of value.
Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State Nittany Lions (20-1)
Barkley is generally regarded as the top running back in college football this year. He is the complete package. He has the size that NFL scouts want at 5-foot-11 and 228 pounds, and he is powerful with a 600-pound squat. Unlike your normal big and powerful running back, he's also explosive and has legit 4.33 speed. Barkley works hard at everything and his goal is to be the best in the country at pass protection as well.
Barkley had 1,496 yards and 18 touchdowns running the ball last season, and 402 yards and four touchdowns receiving. He could top those numbers this year. I have Penn State favored in 11 of their 12 games, so he'll be playing on one of the top teams in the country. I would list Barkley in the top-five category, so he should be priced closer to 10-1.
Christian Kirk, WR, Texas A&M Aggies (100-1)
It's rare when a wide receiver wins the Heisman. To do so, he must contribute in the return game as well. You can check off that box emphatically for Kirk, as he's one of the most electrifying and dangerous return men in the country. As a true freshman he had just 14 punt returns, but had two touchdowns and averaged an amazing 24.4 yards per return, with another 385 yards on kick returns. Last year he had just six kick returns, but averaged 28.8 yards per return and he had just 13 punt returns, but had three more touchdowns and averaged 21.7 yards per return. He has averaged nearly 1,000 yards receiving in his two years despite uneven quarterback play.
The Aggies completed 66.9 percent of their passes in Kevin Sumlin's first three years as coach, but just 55.5 percent the last two years. I expect more efficient quarterback play in 2017, which will result in improved receiving numbers. With Sumlin on the hot seat and Kirk likely leaving for the NFL after the season, look for him to be even more involved in the return game and have a lot of Heisman-type moments. I'm surprised he's at 100-1.
Quinton Flowers, QB, South Florida Bulls (80-1)
Lamar Jackson won the Heisman Trophy in 2016 thanks to some big marquee games early in the year. He finished with more than 5,000 yards of total offense and 51 total touchdowns. Flowers was Lamar Jackson lite last year. He had 4,342 yards of total offense and 42 total touchdowns. He won't have the marquee games that Jackson had last year, but could top those stats as the Bulls do lose their 1,000 yard running back Marlon Mack, so Flowers may take even more of the load. South Florida also faces my No. 110 toughest schedule and will be favored in all 12 games. They are my pick to represent the Group of 5 conferences in the New Year's Day bowl games. Flowers is under-the-radar right now at 80-1 and worth a look.
You'll notice on the two lists that I don't have Lamar Jackson, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner. There are three reasons that I wouldn't bet on him winning the Heisman. The first is that the odds are just 8-1, so there's not a lot of value. The second is that there is some buyers' remorse from last year, as many who voted for him would have probably voted for Deshaun Watson after the bowls were complete. The third is what I mentioned in my original article, and that is a player has to basically top last year's stats. Louisville averaged just 19 points per game their last three games after averaging 49.6 the first 10. I don't think Jackson can top last year's stats and that is another reason Archie Griffin (1974-'75) is the only player to ever win the Heisman Trophy twice.
Other players I liked from April
Deondre Francois, QB, Florida State Seminoles (12-1)
Last year Francois got hit a lot but stayed in games, showing he's durable. Florida State will have some big marquee games (Alabama, Clemson, Louisville) for him to showcase his skills. Dalvin Cook got all the media attention on the Florida State offense in 2016, and that focus will be Francois' this year. If the Seminoles come away from their tough scheduled unscathed, Francois will have much to do with it and will put himself at the top of the Heisman list. He's my best value bet right now.
Sam Darnold, QB, USC Trojans (7-1)
Darnold deserves the favorite role, as USC was a different team once he was handed the starting job in Week 4. He is a dangerous runner, an accurate passer and is surrounded by talent at the skill positions. Darnold threw for a career-high 453 yards in leading the Trojans to a come-from-behind win in the Rose Bowl over a solid Penn State squad and has a ton of momentum going into this season. I think his odds should be closer to 5-1.
J.T. Barrett, QB, Ohio State Buckeyes (10-1)
Ohio State is enhancing its offense with the hiring of former Indiana head coach Kevin Wilson, and this should help Barrett become more consistent. The Buckeyes have a huge nonconference game against Oklahoma, and provided they win, Barrett will likely be in the driver's seat early on. Ohio State will be favored in every game and if Barrett reverts back to his 2014 form, he has an excellent shot at winning the Heisman.
Jake Browning, QB, Washington Huskies (12-1)
Browning has a great shot at improving on last year's statistics and might be worth a look. While he faltered a bit down the stretch in the big games, with another year of experience under his belt I don't think there will be a drop-off this season. Washington remains a contender in the Pac-12 as they avoid USC and will be favored in every game except at Stanford, thus making Browning a contender.
Mason Rudolph, QB, Oklahoma State Cowboys (15-1)
Oklahoma State is a prime contender in the Big 12 and the best news for Rudolph is that he's going to have arguably the best wide receiver in the nation to throw to in James Washington. After throwing for over 4,000 yards last year with a solid 28-4 touchdown to interception ratio, Rudolph could surpass those numbers in 2017.
Derrius Guice, RB, LSU Tigers (20-1)
Some have made the argument that Guice is better than Leonard Fournette. Guice will have the backfield to himself this season and will get plenty of opportunities to showcase his abilities. If LSU is in playoff consideration toward the end of the season, Guice will be a major reason why.