College football season win totals are a good way to gauge expectations for teams while also finding opportunities for betting value.
In 2015, I gave out eight season win totals and those selections went 5-2, with one "no bet." Last season, I had eight more selections and those selections went 5-2-1.
To get a head start on your research for the 2017 season, here are my top seven over/under plays for this summer.
Odds courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, as of July 18 (unless noted).
Miami Hurricanes (over/under: 9)
I've correctly picked the Hurricanes each of the past two seasons, and they look to be
I like teams with an excellent defensive front seven, and the Hurricanes have that. Last season, they started three true freshmen at linebacker and now have one of the top linebacker units in the country. I rate their defensive line No. 4 in the nation.
When I factor in their overall talent and schedule, I have the Hurricanes favored in 11 of their 12 games. With that in mind, I will choose the over again and call for Miami to make its first-ever ACC title game.
The pick: over 9
Marshall Thundering Herd (O/U: 5)
At South Point
This may be my favorite play on the board. Marshall won 11 games per season from 2013 to 2015. Last year, the Herd took a shocking dip down to just three wins, and that's why we have this exceptional value at just five for a team that has now averaged nine wins per season over the past four years.
Marshall has 13 returning starters, a veteran quarterback and brings in some Power 5 transfers on defense who will make it one of Conference USA's best defensive units. Grab the value now as this number will climb during the summer months.
The pick: over 5
Vanderbilt Commodores (O/U: 5.5)
At South Point
Derek Mason's squad has shown improvement each season, going from three to four to six wins, and this number is set for continued improvement as the Commodores have 16 returning starters and the strongest team of his tenure.
One factor that is also stronger this season is the schedule, which goes from No. 38 to No. 15 in terms of difficulty this year. Vanderbilt takes on two of Conference USA's toughest teams in Western Kentucky and Middle Tennessee and also draws a loaded Kansas State in the nonconference slate. While the Commodores beat both Western Kentucky and Middle Tennessee last season, they were outgained by 107 and 151 yards in those games.
The tough schedule means that even an improved Vandy squad may struggle to top six wins.
The pick: under 5.5
Florida Gators (O/U: 8)
At South Point
Florida is my No. 1 surprise team this year in my magazine as a non-top-10 team that I think will contend for a College Football Playoff spot. Florida has made the SEC title game each of the past two years despite losing its starting quarterback to injury in the first half of the season.
The Gators have their usual solid defense and my No. 3-rated special teams, and they will also have their best offense in over five seasons. They have only three true road games at Kentucky, Missouri and South Carolina. I think they will finish with 10 or 11 wins during the regular season, so this is a very solid play on the over.
The pick: over 8
Rice Owls (O/U: 3.5)
At South Point
David Bailiff is doing a great job at Rice, but is coming off of a rough 2016 season. Entering 2016, Rice averaged 6.3 wins per season, and the Owls' low total had been four. They opened 1-8 last season but did win two of their last three.
Last season, Colorado was a junior/senior-laden team and went from last in the Pac-12 to playing in the Pac-12 title game. This is a junior/senior-laden team, and the bar is set extremely low at 3.5 wins. I have the Owls favored in five games with one "toss-up."
The pick: over 3.5
Appalachian State Mountaineers (O/U: 9.5)
Appalachian State returns quarterback Taylor Lamb for what seems to be his ninth season, but he's actually in his fourth year as the starter. Over the past two-and-a-half seasons, coach Scott Satterfield has guided Appalachian State to a 27-5 record and may have his best team yet with 14 returning starters.
Last season, the Mountaineers' losses were to Tennessee, Miami and a road test at Troy, who finished 10-3. They do open up with Georgia, but their road games are against four teams that combined for eight wins versus FBS foes last season, and they face Idaho. They avoid Arkansas State and Troy in Sun Belt play, and I have them favored in 11 games.
The pick: over 9.5
UCF Knights (O/U: 7.5)
At South Point
Scott Frost did a great job taking over a UCF team that was 0-12 the season prior, guiding the Knights to a bowl with six wins. Upon closer inspection, though, those six wins came versus an FCS foe that had a losing record and five FBS teams that had losing records (18-42 combined).
This season, the Knights face six bowl teams from 2016 and have only four returning starters on defense. UCF goes from No. 10 on my Experience Chart to No. 53. While I expect a bowl and six wins, I don't see the Knights getting to eight wins in the regular season.
The pick: under 7.5