Reason for optimism: "Sanchez and Bird" may sound like a buddy cop movie, but they represent the hopes and dreams of Yankees fans.
Reason for pessimism: Matt Holliday is part of the youth movement.
You wouldn't think it would be possible for Holliday, 37 years old, to join a team's lineup and contribute to its youth movement, but he's currently slated to take the more than 600 DH at-bats that in 2016 went to Carlos Beltran (now 39) and in 2015 went to Alex Rodriguez (now 41). Despite the presence of A-Rod and Beltran last season, as well as Mark Teixeira, the Yankees broke a streak I don't believe will be equaled. More on that below.
To my eye, Joe Girardi is, by far, the most underrated manager in the majors. For the third time in the last four years, Girardi led the Yankees to an above-.500 record with a negative run differential. Hell, they were outscored by the San Diego Padres, who not only don't use the designated hitter, but judging from their perpetual futility on offense, sometimes you wonder if they even use bats.
Of course, finishing with a record above .500 is commonplace for the Yankees. While New York finished over .500 for the 24th consecutive year, in 2016 the club did it for the first time since 1993 with an everyday lineup whose average age was under 30. That's a streak that will never be broken. For 22 straight years, based on Baseball Reference's at bat-weighted age calculation, the Yankees had fielded an over-30 team.
In addition to Holliday (snicker, snicker), the youth movement continues this year at catcher and first base. Gary Sanchez, the 2016 sensation who led the lineup in WAR (per FanGraphs) despite only making 229 plate appearances, will be joined by 2015 breakout star Greg Bird, whose left-handed power seems tailor-made for Yankee Stadium (and who missed all of 2016 with a shoulder injury). Sanchez and Bird have a total of 409 plate appearances between them and have slugged .600. Their presence in the lineup has Yankees fans very excited for the 2017 season.
Unfortunately, it looks to me like that's where the excitement ends. The mere fact that Sanchez could lead the team in fWAR with just 229 plate appearances tells the story. The rest of the lineup is aging and not terribly effective. New York finished 25th in on-base percentage and 21st in slugging, and while Sanchez and Bird are surely going to help those rankings, as the rest of the team is currently constructed, they're much more likely to lead the team to more of a league-average offense than lift it to the levels of their division mates in Boston, Baltimore and Toronto.
Further, don't expect the two newcomers to help elevate a defense that hasn't been an asset to its pitching staff for at least the last five years. Also, Sanchez replaces Brian McCann behind the plate, where McCann had superb framing skills.
There will be two new faces in the rotation as well, which is led by last year's most valuable Yankee, Masahiro Tanaka. However, Chad Green's and Bryan Mitchell's (or perhaps Luis Cessa's) presence won't be met with the same anticipation as that of their new battery mate.
Of course, we haven't covered the true strength of the Yankees in 2016 and the sole reason they maintained their streak of winning records. The dominating trio of Andrew Miller, Aroldis Chapman and Dellin Betances anchored the bullpen and, through the first 100 games of the season, they had an ERA of 1.98. Miller and Chapman were traded at that point, but of course, Chapman returns this year having signed a five-year deal as a free agent. The bullpen might have been spectacular in high-leverage situations, but the rest of the relievers look like a league-average crew, which helps explain the winning record/negative run differential dichotomy. New York hopes Tyler Clippard can fill the Miller role in 2017.
Thanks to the incredible exploits of Sanchez over the last two months of the season, the Yankees are a sexy pick this year to surprise. As I wrote last year in the Diamondbacks essay, you can be a fan of Justin Timberlake's efforts to "bring sexy back," but as a sports bettor, it's never a good idea to back sexy. With a total wins market of 83 1/2, oddsmakers are simply asking whether you think the Yankees will do better or worse than last year. For me, it's an easy call.
The team wasn't 84-wins good last year, and while Bird and Sanchez provide the excitement that comes from youthful power hitters, I don't see New York outscoring their opponents this year.
2017 projection: 79-83 (tied for fourth, AL East)
Bet recommendation: Under