Reason for optimism: Despite 94 regular-season wins and coming so close to a World Championship in 2016, this year's team is markedly better.
Reason for pessimism: Too much optimism?
Cleveland Indians fans were treated to 104 total victories, a three-games-to-one lead over the Chicago Cubs and a positive World Series win expectancy in the bottom of the 9th of Game 7 last season. With the core entirely intact for 2017, management made improvements on the margin, but in terms of significance they weren't marginal improvements.
Most notably, they signed one of the biggest bats in the free-agent market, Edwin Encarnacion, replacing Mike Napoli in the lineup, if not the field. Napoli slugged 34 home runs for the Tribe last season, and while his offensive skills aren't what they were at his peak, he still got on base more often (.335 OBP) than the average American League first baseman in 2016 (.331). Those rates were effective, but likely to decline this season, which is why Encarnacion is a material upgrade. A year younger than Napoli, he hasn't hit fewer than 34 home runs since 2011 and typically gets on base more than 35 percent of the time.
There's another "new" hitter expected to play regularly in 2017, but he's not a new face. Michael Brantley, the cornerstone of Cleveland's offense in 2014 and 2015, missed virtually all of last season with recurring shoulder injuries. A return to 6 WAR form may no longer be on the horizon, but it's not really needed. Brantley is replacing Rajai Davis in the lineup and while his Game 7, bottom-of-the-8th home run will be remembered long after he stops playing, Davis didn't exactly spark the offense. Sure, his 43 stolen bases get noticed by viewers and fantasy baseball participants, but his .306 on-base rate was the worst of any lineup regular except catcher Yan Gomes. Brantley's career on-base rate of .348 suggests he can be a relative shell of his former self and still improve the offense.
There is a significant issue with both of the changes to the lineup, though, and it relates to the runs allowed side of the ledger.
The addition of Francisco Lindor to the Indians' lineup in 2015 instantly upgraded the defensive performance of the unit as a whole. There was some slippage as Cleveland dropped to 11th last year from fifth the year before in my adjusted defensive efficiency ratings. It's hard to see how Brantley, who has never ranked well on individual defensive metrics and was part of some very bad defenses from 2012 to 2014, and Carlos Santana, who at age 31 is moving back into the field to free up the DH spot for Encarnacion, will do anything but further the slippage this year. Look for Cleveland's pitchers to have mildly higher ERAs in 2017, even if their skills don't change.
When it comes to staff ERAs, though, Cleveland has some built-in room for slippage. Both the rotation and the bullpen finished second in the AL in ERA and both units flashed skills indicative of those results. For the third year in a row, the Indians' staff led the AL in strikeout rate. There would seem to be little reason to doubt that streak will hit four years as the entire rotation returns and one of the most potent strikeout arms in the bullpen, Andrew Miller, will be available for the entire season instead of just the 29 regular-season innings he tossed last year.
The Indians possess a terrific outlook for 2017 with the only red flag a potential return to the inept defensive performances of 2013 and 2014 when that unit continually sabotaged the work of the high-strikeout staff. Of course, that outlook is of no surprise to anyone, especially oddsmakers. They've installed the Indians with the highest win total in the American League at 93.5, which is right in line with my outlook, so I'll be passing on the regular-season wins market.
However, it's not the regular season that Indians fans care about. On these very pages last year, I called for the Indians to win the American League pennant, largely on the strength of the Lindor-led defense. While no team in baseball is going to have an easier time cruising to a division title than the Indians this year, I do worry about the defense and the natural variance that surrounds bullpen performance. Therefore, you'll find my call for Cleveland's pennant-winning successor, and in fact the 2017 World Series champion, in another American League preview.
2017 projection: 92-70 (first, AL Central)
Bet recommendation: Pass