Reason for optimism: For Athletics fans, hopefully the Ewing Theory applies to handicappers, because I've gotten off the misguided optimism train for the first time in years.
Reason for pessimism: Traditionally attempting to excel in unconventional ways, the front office doesn't appear to have even tried to construct a .500 roster.
I've been writing individual team previews since 2012, and there's been one constant: I always seem to favor the Oakland Athletics' "over." It helped that Oakland's total wins market annually reflects diminished expectations -- thanks to its low payroll relative to the typical major league teams and a roster that features annual turnover far in excess of its competitors.
The driving reason for my bullishness, though, is that as I go through the A's projected roster each March, I almost always see a method to the madness. Whether it's spying a cohesive plot for how a planned platoon will materialize or a focus on defense or the assembly of a bullpen that will minimize shortcomings of the rotation, there's always been a catalyst that leads me to an optimistic outcome for Oakland.
ESPN Chalk readers know that has been an unfortunate default setting; I've made 37 over/under recommendations over the past two seasons and have a 26-10-1 record, but I'm 0-2 when it comes to Oakland.
That changes this year.
I'm not going so far as to recommend a short on Oakland, but even with the reduced expectations that go along with possessing the second-lowest wins hurdle in the American League, I don't see where the upside will come from.
The A's won 69 games last year, but unlike 2015, when they won 68, I'm not convinced they were a better team than their record indicated. The strongest evidence of this is a comparison of their run differentials. Oakland won one more game year-over-year, but its opponents outscored them by a whopping 73 more runs in 2016. Unlike 2015, I don't see areas of weakness that had easy and obvious fixes or that have been radically overhauled.
Let's start with the defense. From 2012-2014, which featured Oakland's post-"Moneyball" resurgence, the A's defense always ranked high in my adjusted defensive efficiency rankings, topping out in 2014 as the best in baseball. That all changed the next year, coinciding with the trade of Josh Donaldson among other roster shifts, and the A's followed a steep path of decline falling to 12th in 2015 and then 20th last season.
For the A's, there's relative stability in the everyday lineup this year, with only three new faces slated to start Opening Day: Trevor Plouffe at third base, Matt Joyce in right field and Rajai Davis returning for his second stint with the team. Davis' defensive reputation has never been good, and my team-based assessment of defensive shows Davis to have been the outfield anchors on some abysmal defenses in Detroit in 2014 and Toronto in 2013 (Cleveland ranked a mildly above-average 11th last season). Plouffe comes from Minnesota, whose defense is perennially bad. In 2014, the only defense worse than the Tigers was the Twins. Offensively, none of the additions look to materially upgrade the men they're replacing, although Plouffe does add some pop to a corner infield slot.
If the everyday players don't create excitement, it's a problem, because the rotation most likely induces dread. Oakland's rotation ranked 14th in the American League in ERA, finishing with a 4.84 mark, its worse finish since 1999. Alarmingly, the man who did the most to keep that figure under 5.00, Rich Hill, won't be around to make 14 starts worth of 2.25 ERA production. I don't necessarily think Oakland will have a 5.00 ERA rotation this year, as much of the damage came from spot starts and rotation castoffs forced into starting roles, but it can't be ruled out. Starting with the health and production decline from Sonny Gray, there is no guarantee at all that the A's won't be turning to replacement arms to make dozens of starts.
I normally see opportunity on unrealistically reduced expectations, but even with oddsmakers posting the lowest A's wins total since 2012 at 74.5, I just don't see the upside this year. In fact, I can see them finishing at 69 or below with a far greater frequency than I can at 80 and above, even though they're equidistant apart from par. There's no way to get paid on that skew, however, and my numbers have the A's projected to fall right around 74 wins, so this is a pass for me. For Oakland fans who are faced with the reality that the A's now will be the only professional franchise left in town in a couple of years, it's a sobering outlook.
2017 projection: 73-89 (fifth, AL West)
Bet recommendation: Pass