Reason for optimism: For Athletics fans, hopefully the Ewing Theory applies to handicappers, because I've gotten off the misguided optimism train for the first time in years.
Reason for pessimism: Traditionally attempting to excel in unconventional ways, the front office doesn't appear to have even tried to construct a .500 roster.
I've been writing individual team previews since 2012, and there's been one constant: I always seem to favor the Oakland Athletics' "over." It helped that Oakland's total wins market annually reflects diminished expectations -- thanks to its low payroll relative to the typical major league teams and a roster that features annual turnover far in excess of its competitors.
The driving reason for my bullishness, though, is that as I go through the A's projected roster each March, I almost always see a method to the madness. Whether it's spying a cohesive plot for how a planned platoon will materialize or a focus on defense or the assembly of a bullpen that will minimize shortcomings of the rotation, there's always been a catalyst that leads me to an optimistic outcome for Oakland.
ESPN Chalk readers know that has been an unfortunate default setting; I've made 37 over/under recommendations over the past two seasons and have a 26-10-1 record, but I'm 0-2 when it comes to Oakland.
That changes this year.