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How I'm betting Super Bowl LI

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All season, Rufus Peabody has given his weekly NFL picks for ESPN Chalk. He's back with his best bets for Sunday's big game, including selections on the game, total and several prop bets.

All lines and props courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.


New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons

Spread: Opened New England -3; now New England -3
Total: Opened 58; now 59

Public consensus pick: 68 percent pick New England

The line on the Super Bowl opened at New England -3 and has stayed there. I think that's too low, though my line isn't different enough to warrant more than a lean on the game. The Massey-Peabody ratings tab Atlanta and New England as the best two offenses in football, but their defenses are another story. While New England ranks first, Atlanta is only 24th. That's a huge difference, and it's why I make the spread here New England -4.7. If it (miraculously) drops to -2.5, I'll be on the Patriots, otherwise I'll be waiting for a good New England money-line opportunity come post time (as the public loves betting the favorite on the point spread and the underdog money line).

ATS pick: Lean New England -3


Total

The total opened at 58, and while it has remained fairly steady offshore (up to 58.5 now), it has steadily climbed in Las Vegas. I expect that it will continue to do so. More so than in any other game, the Super Bowl's line movement will be driven primarily by public money -- and the public loves betting the over. My numbers peg the total at 56, and while I already have a lot of indirect exposure to the under via prop bets, I'll probably take a bite on the under if it gets to 60, which I expect it will in Las Vegas close to game time. For now, I'll sit back and wait, but the play officially is on the under. My advice: Wait as long as you can before betting it.

Pick: Under 59 (but I expect there to be 60s on Sunday)


Prop bets

Will the Falcons score a touchdown in the fourth quarter?

With the market projecting this game to be a shootout, we should be in store for plenty of touchdowns. Based on the spread and total, my algorithm projects 30 percent of Atlanta's touchdowns to come in the fourth quarter. Using my overall Falcons TD projection and some statistical inference, I get a true price of -240 on the "yes".

The play: Yes -185

Devonta Freeman longest rush:

If Freeman was going up against an average defense, there would be no value here whatsoever, but the Patriots defense has been excellent against the run, allowing only 3.57 yards per rush to opposing running backs. On the season, the Patriots have only allowed five rushes of more than 15 yards to opposing running backs; that comes out to 1 out of every 72 rushes! With Freeman splitting touches with Tevin Coleman, and the Pats favored, I don't expect there to be enough carries for Freeman to make it at all likely he hits a run of over 15.5 yards.

The play: Under 15.5 (-110)

Will there be a safety?

The public loves to bet the yes on this, and it has been rewarded over the past five years, but betting on a safety is the ultimate sucker's bet. Because of all the action books will take on the "yes," I'd wait until close to kickoff, because it's likely the price will get better. This is a pretty simple prop to handicap. Safeties are pretty unpredictable, rare and easy to model (using the Poisson distribution). Despite a slight uptick in safeties this season, and teams' increased propensity to take intentional safeties in the final seconds, I still price the "no" at around -1300.

The play: No (-900)

Will LeGarrette Blount score a TD?

While Blount has scored 19 of New England's 21 rushing touchdowns this season and faces a Falcons team that has struggled to stop the run, it is no sure bet that Blount finds the end zone. Blount accounted for 70 percent of New England's rush attempts, and 83 percent of its attempts inside the opponents' 5-yard line, in the first 10 weeks, but since Dion Lewis has returned, Blount's usage has fallen to 56 percent (74 percent inside the 5). While I still project Blount at 0.75 TDs, that makes him only a -112 favorite to score, so I like the value on the "no" here.

The play: No (+140)

Longest reception by Julian Edelman

This opened at 30.5 but has been bet down significantly, and justifiably so. While Edelman is an oft-targeted receiver and does have nine catches of more than 26 yards on the season (7.9 percent of his catches), his career norms suggest this is unusually high. Last season, only 3.9 percent of his catches went for more than 26 yards, and in 2014 that number was a mere 3.4 percent. While he has seen more deep targets this season, he is still largely the same player, and we can't completely ignore previous seasons. Despite this number being bet down all the way from 30.5, there is still some value left on the under.

The play: Under 26.5 (-110)

First reception by James White

If White doesn't catch a pass, the under wins, but considering he's projected at over 3 receptions, that's not particularly likely. While 6.5 is the median reception length for running backs on the season, only 44 percent of White's catches have been shorter than 6.5 yards in his career. Atlanta's defense helps our cause here; 56.5 percent of the running back receptions the Falcons have given up this year have gone for more than 6.5 yards.

The play: Over 6.5 yards (-110)