LAS VEGAS -- The New England Patriots are still the No. 1 team in the NFL Vegas Rankings heading into the playoffs, and are also a 7-5 Super Bowl favorite at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.
The Patriots were the best bet in the league during the regular season, finishing 13-3 ATS after beating the Miami Dolphins 35-14 as 9.5-point road favorites, clinching the top seed in the AFC in the process.
The NFL Vegas Rankings are compiled using the average of the power ratings from ESPN Chalk handicappers Erin Rynning and yours truly, Dave Tuley, along with ESPN's Football Power Index. They're intended to compare the relative strength of teams if they were to meet on a neutral field and what the point spread should be for those matchups. We've also added the FPI and Massey-Peabody rankings to our chart for comparative purposes and to show other viewpoints; while there are differences up and down the rankings, we all continue to have the Patriots ranked highest.
Our panel has the Atlanta Falcons at No. 2 even though the Dallas Cowboys are the No. 1 seed in the NFC, though it's by just 1.5 points and the Cowboys would still be favored if they were to meet in Dallas for the NFC Championship Game.
We're only listing the 12 remaining teams in the NFL Vegas Rankings below. The FPI and M-P rankings columns list the 12 in order but also show where they rank the teams in the entire league: the Houston Texans, the Dolphins and the Detroit Lions (three teams that are 100-1 to win the Super Bowl) are all outside the top 20 in the FPI and M-P rankings.
Here's a look at the teams making the biggest moves up and down the NFL Vegas Rankings, followed by a glance at this weekend's wild-card round matchups:
Movin' on up
The New York Giants were upgraded 1.5 points by our panel after their impressive 19-10 win as nine-point road underdogs over the Washington Redskins, knocking Washington out of the playoffs even though the G-men had nothing to play for but pride. The Giants' defense has been especially impressive down the stretch, and the team probably deserved an increase earlier.
The Kansas City Chiefs were the only others to have their power rating increased by a full point, after their 37-27 win as six-point road favorites over the San Diego Chargers.
Dropping down
The biggest decrease was to the Oakland Raiders, who had already been downgraded after Derek Carr was lost for the season and suffered a further setback when backup Matt McGloin also went down in a 24-6 loss (as one-point road underdogs) at the Denver Broncos in Week 17.
The Detroit Lions were also docked a full point after their 31-24 loss as 3.5-point home underdogs to the Green Bay Packers.
Wild-card round matchups
Power ratings are used to compare the relative strength of teams to the current point spread, as if they were to meet on a neutral field before factoring in home-field advantage. The industry standard is 2.5 points for home field, but teams such as Green Bay, New England, Denver and Seattle are given a field goal or more. Note: A team's line might not be increased the full amount if it would hit (or especially cross) the key numbers of 3 and 7.
Every week during the season, we compare that week's lines to the NFL Vegas Rankings and list the value plays for the week. However, we also suggest using our ratings as a base to create your own numbers if you think we have some teams ranked too low or too high to help in your own handicapping.
Our value plays fell to 21-26-1 ATS after going 1-2 with a win on Carolina and losses on Indianapolis and Detroit (another reason for the Lions' downgrade this week).
Let's still take a look at the weekend's four games:
(Note: As always, these are not my personal plays or those of any of the other handicappers but rather from the group as a whole. My wild-card picks will be published in the NFL betting previews here at ESPN Chalk and ESPN Insider on Thursday.
Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans
Vegas consensus line: Houston -3.5 (Even)
Vegas Ranks: Houston -2.5 (22.5-20)
The Raiders would have been road favorites at Houston a few weeks ago, but the loss of Derek Carr changed everything. Our panel now has the Texans (who have QB concerns of their own between Tom Savage and Brock Osweiler) rated 2.5 points better than the Raiders. With Houston's home-field advantage, that pushes the line through the key number of 3 and to the -3.5 line that we're seeing at most books.
Detroit Lions at Seattle Seahawks
Vegas consensus line: Seattle -8
Vegas Ranks: Seattle -5.5 (24.5-19)
The Seahawks are rated 5.5 points better than the Lions on a neutral field. Seattle has among the biggest home-field advantages in the league, so it's easy to see how the oddsmakers have also pushed it through the key number of 7 to the current consensus line of Seattle -8.
Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers
Vegas consensus line: Pittsburgh -10
Vegas Ranks: Pittsburgh -7 (26.5-19.5)
Our panel has the Steelers as seven points better than the Dolphins on a neutral field, and the home-field advantage pushes it all the way to -10 (most books opened at Pittsburgh -9.5 and it was bet to 10). There is some uncertainty in Miami about whether Ryan Tannehill will be able to return for Sunday's game or whether the Dolphins will have to start Matt Moore again; however, our panel doesn't see much of an upgrade with a rusty Tannehill.
New York Giants at Green Bay Packers
Vegas consensus line: Green Bay -4.5
Vegas Ranks: Green Bay -2.5 (25-22.5)
The Packers are rated 2.5 points better than the Giants on a neutral field, so you can see how Green Bay's home-field advantage has pushed the line through the key number of 3 and up to the current line of Green Bay -4.5.