LAS VEGAS -- The New England Patriots are still the No. 1 team in the NFL Vegas Rankings heading into Week 17, but the big news over the holiday weekend was the quarterback injuries suffered by the Oakland Raiders and Tennessee Titans.
The Raiders beat the Indianapolis Colts 33-25 as 3.5-point home favorites, and our panel of Chalk handicappers would have normally raised their power rating by a half-point or a full point, but after starting QB and MVP candidate Derek Carr suffered a season-ending broken fibula, we lowered them by two full points. The 12-3 Raiders are now ranked in a tie for No. 13 and behind teams that have been eliminated from the playoff race, such as Denver, Baltimore, Indianapolis and Cincinnati.
The Titans were on their way to losing 38-17 to the Jacksonville Jaguars when they lost Marcus Mariota for the season. Our panel lowered the Titans' power rating by a whopping four points, though that's just in effect for Week 17, as they were put out of their misery and eliminated when the Houston Texans beat the Cincinnati Bengals 12-10 on Saturday night to clinch the AFC South and eliminate the Titans.
The NFL Vegas Rankings are compiled using the average of the power ratings from ESPN Chalk handicappers Erin Rynning and yours truly, Dave Tuley, along with ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI). They're intended to compare the relative strength of teams if they were to meet on a neutral field and what the point spread should be for those matchups. We've also added the FPI and Massey-Peabody rankings to our chart for comparative purposes and to show other viewpoints; while there are differences up and down the rankings, we all continue to have the Patriots ranked highest.
Here's a look at the teams making the biggest moves up and down the NFL Vegas Rankings, and then we'll look for some Week 16 value plays using this week's power ratings:
Movin' on up
The Green Bay Packers, who beat the Minnesota Vikings 38-25 to cover as 6.5-point home favorites, and the Kansas City Chiefs, who beat the Denver Broncos 33-10 as 3.5-point home favorites, were the only other teams besides the Falcons, Cowboys and Texans to have their power ratings increased by a full point this past week.
Dropping down
Besides the four-point drop by the Titans and the two-point downgrade for the Raiders, the only other teams to get docked a full point were the Seahawks, Broncos, Vikings, Chargers, Bears, Jets and Rams. Most other teams moved up or down by just half a point.
Week 17 value plays
Power ratings are used to compare the relative strength of teams to the current point spread, as if they were to meet on a neutral field before factoring in home-field advantage. The industry standard is 2.5 points for home field, but teams such as Green Bay, New England, Denver and Seattle are given a field goal or more. Note: A team's line might not be increased the full amount if hitting (and especially crossing) the key numbers of 3 and 7.
Every week during the season, we compare that week's lines to the NFL Vegas Rankings and list the value plays for the week. However, we also suggest using our ratings as a base to create your own numbers, if you think we have some teams ranked too low or too high, to help in your own handicapping.
Our value plays fell to 20-24-1 ATS after going 0-2 last week with losses on Tampa Bay +3 and San Diego -6, but we believe we have three plays this Sunday. We're keeping these to games where we have teams with similar incentives or non-incentives and could expect more "honest" efforts.
(Note: As always, these are not my personal plays or those of any of the other handicappers, but rather the group as a whole. My picks will be in the NFL betting previews for all of the Week 16 games over the weekend here at ESPN Chalk and ESPN Insider.)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts
Vegas consensus line: Indianapolis -4.5
Vegas Ranks: Indianapolis -5 (22-17)
Our panel has the Colts rated five points better than the Jaguars on a neutral field. With Indianapolis' home-field advantage, we believe this line should be at least Colts -7, so we're getting a little value laying less than a touchdown.
The play: Colts -4.5
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Vegas consensus line: Tampa Bay -6.5
Vegas Ranks: Tampa Bay -0.5 (21-20.5)
The Buccaneers are rated just half a point better than the Panthers, so even with Tampa Bay's home-field advantage, this line should be Bucs -3 at the most. We understand the Buccaneers still have an outside chance at a wild-card spot, but the adjustment shouldn't be this much as the Panthers have shown they're still trying to finish a disappointing season on a strong note.
The play: Panthers +6.5
Vegas consensus line: Green Bay -3.5
Vegas Ranks: Green Bay -4.5 (25-20.5)
Our panel has the Packers as 4.5 points better on a neutral field as we've been slow to increase the Lions all season, but with Detroit's home-field advantage, we have this line at Green Bay -3 or maybe even lower at -2.5. With the Lions getting more than a field goal, that becomes a value play.
The play: Lions +3.5
Note: There are several games with lines that are way off, but that's because the oddsmakers are adjusting for the possibility of players being rested for the playoffs. However, if you believe those teams will put forth solid efforts anyway, here are those plays: Houston +3 at Tennessee (we have it more like Houston -3 or -3.5), New York Giants +8 at Washington (we have it Washington -3), Dallas +4 at Philadelphia (we have Dallas around -3), Pittsburgh -7.5 vs. Cleveland (we have Pittsburgh more like -17 if everyone was playing) and Miami +9.5 vs. New England (we have it New England -7).