LAS VEGAS -- The New England Patriots continue to roll along as the No. 1 team in the NFL Vegas Rankings and the Super Bowl favorites while the other top contenders continue to shuffle behind them.
The Patriots went into Denver in Week 15 and came out with a 16-3 victory as 3-point road favorites. The Pittsburgh Steelers rallied in Cincinnati to win 24-20 and cover as 3-point road favorites and are now tied for No. 2 by our panel of ESPN Chalk handicappers with the Atlanta Falcons, who routed the San Francisco 49ers 41-13 as 14-point home favorites. While the Patriots are 9-5 to win the Super Bowl at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, the Steelers and Falcons are 10-1 and 16-1, respectively. They actually have higher odds than our No. 4 and 5 teams, the Dallas Cowboys and Seattle Seahawks, who are 7-2 and 5-1 respectively.
The NFL Vegas Rankings are compiled using the average of the power ratings from ESPN Chalk handicappers Erin Rynning and yours truly, Dave Tuley, along with ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI). They're intended to compare the relative strength of teams if they were to meet on a neutral field and what the point spread should be for those matchups. We've also added the FPI and Massey-Peabody rankings to our chart for comparative purposes and to show other viewpoints; while there are differences up and down the rankings, we all continue to have the Patriots ranked highest.
The Green Bay Packers are our No. 6 team as they try to make a playoff push, though our panel downgraded them by half a point after they won 30-27 in Chicago but didn't cover as 4.5-point road favorites. The Packers still are trying to catch the Detroit Lions in the NFC North, but we have them rated four points better than the Lions, who have trailed in the fourth quarter in all but one of their games this season.
Here's a look at the teams making the biggest moves up and down the NFL Vegas Rankings, and then we'll look for some Week 16 value plays using this week's power ratings:
Movin' on up
There weren't any teams that had their power rating upgraded by more than a full point this week. There were four teams that saw a 1-point increase: the Seahawks for their 24-3 rout of the Los Angeles Rams on Thursday night as 16-point home favorites, the Indianapolis Colts for their 34-6 rout of the Minnesota Vikings as 6-point road underdogs, the Miami Dolphins for blowing out the New York Jets 34-13 on Saturday night as 2.5-point home favorites and the aforementioned Pittsburgh Steelers.
Dropping down
Usually the teams dropping the most are the teams that lose to the teams rising the most, but this week the only corresponding team is the Vikings being downgraded a full point for their loss to the Colts. The only other team getting docked a full point was the Arizona Cardinals after their 48-41 loss to the New Orleans Saints as 3-point home favorites (though part of that was from not being downgraded enough in previous weeks).
Week 16 value plays
Power ratings are used to compare the relative strength of teams to the current point spread, as if they were to meet on a neutral field before factoring in home-field advantage. The industry standard is 2.5 points for home field, but teams such as Green Bay, New England, Denver and Seattle are given a field goal or more. Note: a team's line might not be increased the full amount if hitting (and especially crossing) the key numbers of 3 and 7.
Every week during the season, we compare that week's lines to the NFL Vegas Rankings and list the value plays for the week. However, we also suggest using our ratings as a base to create your own numbers if you think we have some teams ranked too low or too high to help in your own handicapping.
Our value plays fell below .500 at 20-22-1 ATS after going 0-2 last week with losses on Houston minus-6 and Cincinnati plus-3.5. Most of our ratings have this week's matchups right around the current lines (though keep an eye on line movement through the week), but we think we have one favorite and one underdog with value.
(Note: As always, these are not my personal plays or those of any of the other handicappers, but rather the group as a whole. My picks will be in the NFL betting previews for all of the Week 16 games over the weekend here at ESPN Chalk and ESPN Insider.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints
Vegas consensus line: New Orleans -3 Vegas Ranks: Tampa Bay -1 (21.5-20.5)
Our panel actually has the Buccaneers rated as one point better than the Saints on a neutral field. With New Orleans' home-field advantage -- which isn't what it used to be -- we would only flip the Saints to around minus-2 or minus-2.5, but not a full field goal.
The play: Buccaneers +3
San Diego Chargers at Cleveland Browns
Vegas consensus line: San Diego -6 Vegas Ranks: San Diego -9 (20.5-11.5)
The Chargers are having a rough season, but they've certainly been more competitive in most of their games than the Browns and we have them rated nine points better on a neutral field. Cleveland's home-field advantage is negligible at best. We wouldn't adjust this line past the key number of 7, so there's value here on the road favorite.
The play: Chargers -6