LAS VEGAS -- A lot of other NFL polls are scrambling to move the New England Patriots into their No. 1 spot to replace the Dallas Cowboys, but the NFL Vegas Rankings here at Chalk have had the Patriots on top since Tom Brady returned from his suspension after Week 4.
The Patriots held onto that spot with a 30-23 win over the Baltimore Ravens on Monday Night Football after closing as 6-point home favorites. In last week's rankings, we had New England rated 5 points better than Baltimore on a neutral field, so we felt the line was correct when it was -7.5 when last week's poll was posted. If we had known the line was going to plummet to -6, we would have made it a value play.
The NFL Vegas Rankings are compiled using the average of the power ratings from Chalk handicappers Erin Rynning and yours truly, Dave Tuley, along with ESPN's Football Power Index. They're intended to compare the relative strength of teams if they were to meet on a neutral field and what the point spread should be for those matchups. We've also added the FPI and Massey-Peabody rankings to our chart for comparative purposes and to show other viewpoints; while there are differences up and down the rankings, we all continue to have the Patriots ranked highest.
Here's a look at the teams making the biggest moves up and down the NFL Vegas Rankings, and then we'll look for some Week 15 value plays using this week's power ratings:
Movin' on up
The Falcons and Packers were the only NFL teams that our panel upgraded by a full point this week after their blowout wins. The rest of the week's winners were mostly raised by just half a point.
Dropping down
Our panel downgraded the Seahawks' power rating 1.5 points for their blowout loss to the Packers. It was their second loss in three games. (Note: Seattle has one of the biggest home-field advantages in the league, so part of that will be made up in home games, but our panel felt the Seahawks had to be docked overall for their struggles on the road). The Arizona Cardinals, Los Angeles Rams and Miami Dolphins also dropped by a full point. The Dolphins beat the Cardinals 26-23 in overtime but ended up being downgraded overall with Matt Moore filling in for the injured Ryan Tannehill.
Week 15 value plays
Power ratings are used to compare the relative strength of teams to the current point spread, as if they were to meet on a neutral field before factoring in home-field advantage. The industry standard is 2.5 points for home field, but teams such as Green Bay, New England, Denver and Seattle are given a field goal or more. Note: A team's line might not be increased the full amount if hitting (and especially crossing) the key numbers of 3 and 7.
Every week during the season, we compare the lines to the NFL Vegas Rankings and list the value plays for the week. However, we also suggest using our ratings as a base to create your own numbers if you think we have some teams ranked too low or too high to help in your own handicapping.
Our value plays remain at .500 overall at 20-20-1 against the spread after going 2-2 ATS with wins on the Bengals -6 over the Browns and Falcons -6 over the Rams, but losses on the Raiders +3 against the Chiefs and Broncos +1 against the Titans.
(Note: As always, these are not my personal plays or those of any of the other handicappers but rather the group as a whole. My picks will be in the NFL betting previews for all of the Week 15 games over the weekend here at Chalk and ESPN Insider.)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans
Vegas consensus line: Houston -6
Vegas ranks line: Houston -6 (22-16)
Our panel has the Texans rated 6 points better than the Jaguars on a neutral field, so with Houston's home-field advantage, we believe the line should be over the key number of 7. However, most books have the game lined at Houston -6 with the CG Technology books in Las Vegas even lower at 5.5.
The play: Texans -6
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals
Vegas consensus line: Pittsburgh -3.5
Vegas Ranks: Pittsburgh -3 (25.5-22.5)
Our panel has the Steelers rated just 3 points better than the Bengals, who are our highest-rated team that's below .500, so with Cincinnati's home-field advantage, we have this line a lot closer to pick 'em or the Steelers as short road favorites. However, the Bengals are getting +3.5 at most Vegas books as of early Tuesday morning, with public money expected to put the line higher at books that are still dealing -3 (-120). The gap between these two teams could narrow further if reports that receiver A.J. Green could be returning for Cincinnati are true.
The play: Bengals +3.5