LAS VEGAS -- The New England Patriots are still the No. 1 team in the NFL Vegas Rankings here at Chalk, with the Seattle Seahawks and Dallas Cowboys continuing to close the gap.
In fact, the top eight teams remain the same from last week; the only change being that the Minnesota Vikings, who were alone at No. 6 last week, have moved into a three-way tie at No. 4 with the idle Atlanta Falcons and Denver Broncos.
The main purpose of the NFL Vegas Rankings is to compare two teams as if they were to meet on a neutral field (after which most teams get 2.5 points for home-field advantage) and to assess the current point spread. We've also added the FPI and Massey-Peabody rankings to our chart.
Here's a look at the teams making the biggest moves up and down the rankings, and then we'll look for some Week 12 value plays using the rankings:
Movin' on up
Most increases this past weekend were by just a half-point. The only team to have its ranking upgraded by a full point was the Washington Redskins, who beat the Green Bay Packers 42-24 on Sunday night as 3-point home favorites. The teams being upgraded by half a point were the Seattle Seahawks, Dallas Cowboys, Minnesota Vikings, Miami Dolphins, Indianapolis Colts, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Detroit Lions and Cleveland Browns.
Note: the Colts' increase was based on their 24-17 victory over the Tennessee Titans as 3-point home favorites, but they would be docked around 4 points this week if Andrew Luck (concussion) is unable to play against the Steelers on Thanksgiving night.
Dropping down
The biggest downgrade is the Cincinnati Bengals, whom we dropped by 1.5 points. They lost 16-12 to the Bills as 2.5-point home favorites and also lost RB Giovani Bernard for the season and A.J. Green for at least this week -- and maybe much longer. The Green Bay Packers were docked a full point after their 42-24 loss at Washington. These are the teams dropping by half a point: New England Patriots, Kansas City Chiefs, Carolina Panthers, Tennessee Titans, Los Angeles Rams and Jacksonville Jaguars. The Chicago Bears' power rating was unchanged after their 22-16, spread-covering loss to the New York Giants as 7-point road underdogs, but they would drop by several points if Matt Barkley needs to take over for Jay Cutler (shoulder).
Week 12 value plays
These rankings are used to compare the relative strength of teams to the current point spread, as if they were to meet on a neutral field before factoring in home-field advantage. The industry standard is 2.5 points for home field, but teams such as Green Bay, New England, Denver and Seattle are given a field goal or more. Note: a team's line might not be increased the full amount if hitting (and especially crossing) the key numbers of 3 and 7.
Every week during the season, we compare that week's lines to the NFL Vegas Rankings and list the value plays for the week. However, we also suggest using our rankings as a base to create your own numbers if you think we have some teams ranked too low or too high to help in your own handicapping.
Our value plays are 15-15-1 ATS so far this season after going 1-2-1 ATS in Week 11 with a win on Minnesota pick 'em, but losses on Green Bay +2.5 and Houston +5.5 and a push on Jacksonville +7.
(Note: As always, these are not my personal plays or those of any of the other handicappers, but rather the group as a whole. My picks will be in the NFL betting previews for all of the Week 12 games over the weekend here at Chalk and ESPN Insider.
Thursday: Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions
Vegas consensus line: Detroit -2.5
Vegas Ranks line: Minnesota -5.5 (24.5-19)
Maybe our panel hasn't been downgrading the Vikings enough or upgrading the Lions enough, but we still have the Vikings as 5.5 points better on a neutral field. Even with Detroit's home-field advantage, we have this game being closer to Minnesota -3 than the other way around.
The play: Vikings +2.5
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens
Vegas consensus line: Baltimore -4.5
Vegas Ranks: Cincinnati -1 (21.5-20.5)
Our panel, even after the Bengals' big 1.5-point downgrade this week, still has them rated as 1 point better than the Ravens on a neutral field. Even with Baltimore's home-field advantage, we have the Ravens as only being short home faves, so there's value on the Bengals getting more than a field goal and especially as the line has continued to rise.
The play: Bengals +4.5
Monday: Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles
Vegas consensus line: Philadelphia -3.5
Vegas Ranks: Pick 'em (22-22)
These two teams are tied in our panel's power ratings, so even with Philadelphia's home-field advantage, we have this line at the Eagles -2.5 or perhaps -3. Getting the hook with Green Bay +3.5 makes the Packers a value play.
The play: Packers +3.5