LAS VEGAS -- The New England Patriots stayed atop the NFL Vegas Rankings, but the Seattle Seahawks closed the gap, while the Dallas Cowboys continue their rise.
The Patriots were rated 4 points higher than the Seahawks last week in our panel's power ratings -- which are compiled by taking the average of the power ratings of ESPN Chalk handicappers, including Erin Rynning and yours truly, and ESPN's Football Power Index -- so it wasn't too shocking that the Patriots were favored by 7.5 with home-field advantage. But after the Seahawks went into New England and won 31-24, the Patriots are now just 2.5 points ahead of the Seahawks and the line would clearly be under a touchdown if they were to play the game again (or around a field goal if meeting on a neutral field).
Remember, the main purpose of the NFL Vegas Rankings is to use the power ratings to compare two teams as if they were to meet on a neutral field (after which most teams get 2.5 points for home-field advantage) and can be used to compare to the current point spread. We've also added the FPI and Massey-Peabody rankings to our chart for comparative purposes.
Here's a look at the teams making the biggest moves up and down the rankings, and then we'll look for some Week 11 value plays using this week's power ratings:
Movin' on up
Most increases this past weekend were by just a half-point. The Seahawks, as described above, were the most prominent team to receive a 1-point increase in their power rating this week. The Tennessee Titans also earned a full-point upgrade for their 47-25 rout of the Green Bay Packers while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were bumped up by a point for their 36-10 rout of the Chicago Bears.
Dropping down
Conversely, no teams were downgraded by more than a point, with most adjustments also by a half-point. However, the Packers and Bears were both docked 1 point for their aforementioned blowout losses while the New York Jets also were dropped a full point after their 9-6 loss to the Los Angeles Rams (and the move to Bryce Petty at quarterback) and the Cleveland Browns dropped another point to take over the cellar with their 28-7 loss at the Baltimore Ravens on Thursday night.
Week 11 value plays
Power ratings are used to compare the relative strength of teams to the current point spread, as if they were to meet on a neutral field before factoring in home-field advantage. The industry standard is 2.5 points for home field, but teams such as Green Bay, New England, Denver and Seattle are given a field goal or more. Note: A team's line might not be increased the full amount if hitting (and especially crossing) the key numbers of 3 and 7.
Every week during the season, we compare that week's lines to the NFL Vegas Rankings and list the value plays for the week. However, we also suggest using our ratings as a base to create your own numbers if you think we have some teams ranked too low or too high to help in your own handicapping.
Our value plays are 14-13 ATS (51.7 percent) so far this season after going 1-1 ATS in Week 10 with a loss on Minnesota +3 on Sunday and a win on Cincinnati +2.5 on Monday night.
(Note: As always, these are not my personal plays or those of any of the other handicappers, but rather the group as a whole. My picks will be in the NFL betting previews for all of the Week 11 games over the weekend here at ESPN Chalk and ESPN Insider.)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions
Vegas consensus line: Detroit -7 (EVEN)
Vegas Ranks: Detroit -2 (18.5-16.5)
Our panel has the Lions rated 2 points better than the Jaguars on a neutral field, so it's a little surprising to see this line all the way at a touchdown. Even with home-field advantage, Detroit should only be -3.5 or -4, so we see a lot of value on Jacksonville.
The play: Jaguars +7 (-120)
Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings
Vegas consensus line: Pick 'em
Vegas Ranks: Minnesota -0.5 (24-23.5)
Our panel still has the Vikings, losers of their last four games, as a half-point better than the Cardinals, who have also underachieved recently. So, with Minnesota's home-field advantage, we have the Vikings being closer to a 3-point favorite, yet we're getting them at pick 'em.
The play: Vikings pick 'em
Green Bay Packers at Washington Redskins
Vegas consensus line: Washington -2.5 (-120)
Vegas Ranks: Green Bay -2.5 (23-20.5)
Despite the Packers' recent woes, we still have them rated 2.5 points better than the Redskins. Even with Washington's home-field advantage, that only puts this game around pick 'em, but we're getting close to a field goal because of Aaron Rodgers.
The play: Packers +2.5 (EVEN)
Houston Texans vs. Oakland Raiders (in Mexico City)
Vegas consensus line: Oakland -5.5
Vegas Ranks: Oakland -2 (23.5-21.5)
Our panel has the Raiders rated 2 points better than the Texans on a neutral field, which is what we're getting Monday night in Mexico City. However, the Raiders are favored by 5.5, which is what we would expect if they were playing in Oakland. We recommend taking the value on Houston.
The play: Texans +5.5