How to bet 2016 Ryder Cup

ESPN Chalk experts Dave Tuley and Will Harris each offer their insights and strongest bets for this weekend's Ryder Cup at Hazeltine National Golf Club in Chaska, Minnesota.

Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.

Dave Tuley:

I'm taking a different approach (pun intended) to betting this weekend's Ryder Cup. Instead of picking the winner, I'm going to make a case for the draw. It opened at 12-1 at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook and has since been bet down to 11-1 as of Tuesday.

The U.S. team is favored, but it's not like it's lopsided, as the 2-way line is just -0.5. If it was expected to be a runaway, it would be -1.5, so even though the European team doesn't look as strong, it's projected to be pretty close.

It's fair to wonder how often the Ryder Cup ends in a tie, which would require a 14-14 split of the 28 total matches played Friday through Sunday at Hazeltine. The last time it happened was in 1989, so there have been 12 Ryder Cups played since, and the next closest draw was 10 matches before that, in 1969; so historically, odds of 11-1 or 12-1 are pretty fair.

In addition, even though the last dozen Ryder Cups haven't ended in a draw, six of those cases have been decided 14.5-13.5, so if the losing side had been able to halve just one more match (or pull out a win in one of the halved matches), we could be looking at more draws. It's not like we're asking for a very unlikely scenario.

So, while this is far from a certain thing, I believe the value is there at 10-1 or better. Besides, don't forget that there's one more thing working in favor of a draw: Even though the European team is an underdog, it doesn't need to win to retain the Ryder Cup for another two years. The defending champ also keeps the Cup with a draw, so there could be a situation in the final head-to-head matches where the Europeans can lay up or play conservatively to go for the tie.

The Europeans would be just as satisfied with a draw as an outright win -- and those willing to take a shot at the draw at double-digit odds could be just as happy, as well.

Will Harris:

There is a dominant storyline for each team in this Ryder Cup, and the news on both sides of the Atlantic favors the home team.

The Americans are fed up. The United States claimed 22 of the first 25 Ryder Cups, but Europe has won 11 of the past 15. Just a couple weeks after the loss in 2014, which was highlighted by public feuding between Phil Mickelson and captain Tom Watson, the U.S. formed a special task force to develop a winning formula specific to the event.

There is no question that the American side has put more energy and effort into winning this year's Cup than any one before it, but will it pay off? A lot could depend on Mickelson, as he is not only the source of the last event's uproar and the catalyst for the new approach, but he also is more clearly and openly entrenched as the leader of this year's team than ever before.

The obvious storyline in Europe is the team's inexperience, with six Ryder Cup rookies on this year's squad. Despite all the debutantes, the Euro side does boast several highly experienced players, though spiritual leader Ian Poulter is a vice captain this time around. There are more subtle differences in this year's team, as well.

Captain Darren Clarke is a downgrade from previous captain Paul McGinley in terms of preparation, strategic acumen and leadership. Clarke and longtime pal Lee Westwood share a heavy leadership burden with so many young players; they also share a personal distraction, having severed ties with their respective golfing schools in recent weeks. Six of the players are British, including four of the rookies. Will the young Brits turn to Westwood for leadership or to the more reserved Justin Rose? The plan to assign roles to leaders and followers is not as clear as it was under McGinley and certainly not as orchestrated as the new blueprint the American side is rolling out after two years of intense scrutiny. Clarke seems to think the winning formula is already in place -- that all he has to do is not wreck the Ferrari, so to speak. But with an inordinate number of rookies and half the team uncommonly hailing from one nation, building the right chemistry is a lot trickier this time around.

Home-course advantage is another edge. The European team has actually played 34 competitive rounds at Hazeltine compared to the Americans' 23, but former Ryder Cup captain and Minnesota native Tom Lehman has assumed a leadership role in making sure that the American side has gained the edge in course preparation -- one that a home team should have.

Hazeltine itself is quite long at 7,628 yards, but it's not just a bomber's course. Players will need to hit the fairway to score on the par fives -- three of which stretch over 600 yards -- but overall driving accuracy isn't the most critical attribute. In addition to power, this course requires position, proximity and putting. The American side has an edge in both power and putting, especially the latter, which should be telling on greens that reach 13 on the Stimpmeter. The top European players are tee-to-green wizards whose putting is their weak link, while the U.S. team has strong short-game artistry.

Captain Davis Love III has been building his team's confidence by telling them how awesome they are, both individually and through the media. He has even called it the greatest golf team ever assembled. That's a highly dubious claim, but it's working. The Americans are confident, not only in their abilities but also in the mindset and process that the work of the task force has sown.

Westwood ventured the opinion that Tiger Woods' involvement as vice captain might be an unwelcome distraction for the American side, but all accounts are that Woods' contributions have been both significant and well-received. His role, along with that of the other vice captains and contributors, such as Lehman, has been smoothly incorporated into the preparation. It's all hands on deck this time around, and the organization that Love has built is completely aligned in both objective and process. The team itself is indeed "Twelve Strong," as posters, patches and stickers constantly remind them.

The unity and buy-in of this team are off the charts when compared with past American Ryder Cup editions. Meanwhile, the Europeans, who must make the transatlantic trip to a course that does not favor them, are suffering a bit with a weaker captain, a far less experienced roster and vaguely defined leadership roles.

The bottom line is that the European side has won in recent history because it has been tighter and more invested. This year, however, the Americans can finally claim those advantages.

We're bought in too. It's not the American team that will succeed or fail this year, it's the whole process. A bet on the Americans is a vote of confidence for the task force, the product it created and the underlying mentality that created it. It's also a vote of confidence in the leadership duo of Love and Mickelson outperforming Clarke and Westwood. The mission of said task force is to bring the Ryder Cup back via the creation of a winning formula. To the Americans, therefore, a tie is a loss -- which is why we're eschewing the half-point and tie options, aligning our action with the appropriate narrative. That means playing the three-way number at -175. We were really enthusiastic about this play a few months ago, when the price was much lower. Value erodes significantly as it approaches 2-1, but at -175, we still have enough belief in the Americans' edges in talent, experience, mindset, preparation, chemistry and leadership to give it a look.