Reason for optimism: This is probably the most improved offense in the majors.
Reason for pessimism: If run prevention regresses just as much, another losing record will follow.
In the Chicago Cubs capsule, it was mentioned that in 2015 the Cubs made a change at catcher that replaced one of the worst pitch framers in baseball with one of the best, a switch that Baseball Prospectus calculated improved run prevention by 40 runs. Across the majors this year, there aren't too many changes at the catcher position, but the White Sox have made a switch.
After three years with Tyler Flowers spending the majority of time behind the plate, former Tiger Alex Avila will be Chicago's starting catcher in 2016. White Sox fans are excited because Flowers has been just an average-hitting catcher at his best. But while Avila's best seasons in 2011 and 2012 were stellar, he hasn't been above-average at the plate the past three seasons. However, that comparison neglects the change to runs saved through pitch framing.
Avila ranked 109th last season out of 120 catchers at framing pitches, while Flowers ranked third. That has the potential to be just as big a liability for the White Sox this year as it was an asset for the Cubs last season, and I doubt there are many handicappers modeling that change.
Avila isn't the only new name in the White Sox lineup -- far from it. Todd Frazier heads a list of new faces that also include Brett Lawrie, Jimmy Rollins and Austin Jackson. Those are big names, and with the exception of Rollins, almost all are certainly going to produce more offense than the men they replace. That's going to be huge help for table setter Adam Eaton and cleanup hitter Jose Abreu. I'm not going out on a limb at all to predict the White Sox will have the largest year-over-year increase in runs scored across the majors.
As encouraging as that appears, though, it's important to remember the starting point for that improvement: The White Sox were the American League's lowest-scoring team in 2015 by 22 runs.
In other words, the big improvement in runs scored might not lift Chicago to much more than league average on offense. The White Sox were essentially league average at preventing runs last season, so if the team wants to post a winning record and have any chance to challenge for a postseason berth, it must vastly improve in this area. That's why the top of this preview began with a discussion of pitch framing. It's very possible that factor will eat into the improvement on offense. The defense was the worst in the AL in adjusted defensive efficiency, and while the new faces in the lineup replaced the worst of the bats from last year, individual defensive metrics suggest Eaton and Abreu were among the worst offenders on defense.
As far as the most important element of run prevention -- the pitchers themselves -- there's just one change to the rotation, as Mat Latos will be replacing Jeff Samardzija. Samardzija had an unsightly 4.96 ERA, so it shouldn't be hard for Latos (lifetime ERA of 3.51), to improve upon, except that he posted a 4.95 ERA himself last season. Still, he has high-3.00 ERA skills, not high-4.00 skills. Every single reliever who threw more than 10 innings for the White Sox in 2015 returns. That's great for stability, but it's a returning bullpen that was just mildly above-average last year.
The White Sox will not be the lowest-scoring team in the AL this season, which means it's going to be a lot more fun for their fans to watch them play. The key factor to their overall success, however, will be their defense. Somewhere between 20-40 games into the season, we'll have a reading on how the five new defensive starters are jelling as a unit. At the same time, watch the strikeout and walk rates of returning starters Chris Sale, Jose Quintana and John Danks, who have spent the past three seasons throwing to Flowers. If there is a decline in their command rates, it might be the result of having Avila behind the plate.
Oddsmakers' expectations for the White Sox reveal a team that should flirt with .500. Chicago's total wins market is 80.5, and based on my observations, they are a very popular "over" call. I'm much more conservative in their outlook due to the problems I see in holding the line on runs allowed, even though the offense should be much more productive.
It doesn't rise to the level of a play for me, but you can definitely color me more bearish than bullish based on expectations of a .500 team. Perhaps there will be juicier ways to play that skepticism on a daily basis as the season progresses.
2016 projection: 78-84 (tie-third, AL Central)
Bet recommendation: Pass