Reason for optimism: Giancarlo Stanton and Jose Fernandez are scheduled to take the field together on Opening Day for the first time since May 9, 2014.
Reason for pessimism: C'mon, it's the Marlins.
The accepted wisdom among many commentators this spring is that there is such a clear distinction between the teams that are trying to win in the National League, and those engaged in a tear-down, that there are only eight teams vying for five playoff spots. Therefore, it's reasoned, only three teams are going to end the season disappointed. Cue Leo Corso -- "Not so fast, my friends."
Twenty-eight games. Why is that a significant data point?
Since 2013, when Fernandez burst onto the scene, he and Stanton have combined for a 21.3 fWAR. That's an impressive combination of pitcher and position player, and there aren't many similar pairings of under-28 stars across the majors, if you stipulate that each player has to have generated at least 7 fWAR; Bryce Harper and Stephen Strasburg, Mike Trout and (believe it or not) Garrett Richards and Yasiel Puig and Clayton Kershaw are among the most visible. There is a massive difference between the Marlins duo and the others, however -- Fernandez and Stanton have taken the field together only 28 times in their careers. That is incredible, when you take into account that Baseball-Reference.com already has both players in the Marlins' all-time top 20 in WAR.
If all goes right for the Marlins this year, these two stars will more than double that figure by October and, as a result, the Marlins have a much better-than-expected chance to crash the postseason party. That seems like an odd statement for a team that won 71 games last year, in a division that found them behind the Phillies on Memorial Day, and in a season in which they barely caught the Braves by Labor Day.
However, the Marlins were a far better team than their record indicated. Thanks to both negative Pythag luck and cluster luck, the Marlins were roughly six wins better than their final record. If Miami were a 77-win team with half-seasons from Stanton and Fernandez, shouldn't they be considered at least a .500 team with full-time participation from both of them?
There are other helping factors as well. The defense, which ranked 28th in adjusted defensive efficiency in 2014, jumped to ninth last season. That difference in run suppression is often crucial in distinguishing between teams that miss and make the playoffs and, encouragingly, that type of year-over-year improvement from bottom-third to top-third tends to be sticky. Aiding in that run suppression will be an improved rotation.
In addition to an extra 20 starts from Fernandez, the Marlins signed Wei-Yin Chen to anchor the front of the rotation. While this doesn't give the Marlins a Max Scherzer/Strasburg one-two punch, it's still a very helpful move. Chen has shown improvement in each of his four years in the majors, highlighted by across-the-board career bests last season. While he might not have the skills to replicate his 3.34 ERA in 2015, the aid he gets from the AL-to-NL shift and the backing of a better defense might be enough to keep his ERA below 3.50. Given that Chen is being asked to replace the nearly 30 starts from Mat Latos (4.48 ERA) and Brad Hand (5.68 ERA), the potential for improvement is significant.
If it's going to come together for the Marlins this year, the breakthrough is going to have to happen on offense. In the Fernandez era, the Marlins have scored fewer runs than any other team in baseball, and the reason has been their 30th-ranked slugging percentage over that time. That's what makes last year's emergence of Justin Bour, J.T. Realmuto and Derek Dietrich so encouraging.
The Marlins don't need another Stanton to contend -- they need to surround him with league-average players. Michael Morse (.313 SLG at the most important hitting position on the diamond) was a disaster as last year's Opening Day first baseman, accounting for 12 RBIs over the equivalent of a third-of-a-season's worth of at-bats; at only 26 years of age, Bour had 73 RBIs and slugged .479 in the other two-thirds of the season. When Jarrod Saltalamachhia posted a batting average (.069) that would be embarrassing for a pitcher, the Marlins turned to Realmuto; the rookie slugged .406, and led all catchers in stolen bases while only playing an abbreviated season.
When it comes to leadoff hitter Dee Gordon, who demonstrated the huge strides he made with Los Angeles in 2014 was no fluke, well, I'm humming "I'm a Dee-liever" to the tune of the Monkees classic. His age, speed and contact rate support an elevated BABIP, which ranked third in the majors last year at .383.
As measured by their total wins market the last two years, expectations are incorrectly reversed for Miami. Last year, with Fernandez shelved for at least half the season, new faces across most of the infield and Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna yet to show they could produce over a full season, Vegas posted a total wins market that not only didn't start with a "6" for the first time in three years, it foresaw the Marlins as an above-.500 team. I saw a roster that was a year away, confidently recommended the under and easily cashed.
This year the Marlins opened at 78.5 wins and have ticked up to 79. I've got them modeled as an 85-win team this year, underscoring that my belief expectations are reversed -- but truthfully, I think they could win 90. This is my highest-conviction "over" in the entire National League.
Incidentally, I never recommend futures plays because when a business is selling one-dollar bills in parcels that add up to $1.40, the chance of finding true value is miniscule. I still feel that way, but if you're inclined to make a title bet, the team with the least amount of negative value, if you will, has to be the Marlins.
2016 projection: 85-77 (third, NL East)
Bet recommendation: Over