We're halfway through the 2015 Major League Baseball season, which means wins have been banked, the St. Louis Cardinals are dusting off the playoff-ticket printing press and the Philadelphia Phillies have confirmed tee times for the first week in October.
But most importantly for our purposes, spring training projections can be evaluated because history tells us at least 70 percent of October's participants have been identified. MLB's 10-team postseason is only four years old, but from 2012 to 2014, a minimum of seven of the 10 teams slotted for the playoffs at the All-Star break each year have made it to the postseason. Overall, 22 of the 30 teams that made the playoffs would have also made the playoffs if the season ended at that year's All-Star break.
Of course, attempting to identify the other teams is the fun part of handicapping. So let's dig into the first half of the 2015 season, compare results with expectations and possibly find some over- and undervalued teams for the next three months.
Note: Records are reflective of all games played through Sunday.
All statistics are through each team's 81st game.
Season-to-date pricing adds the implied win probability from the money line of each team's first 81 games and converts it to 162 games. For instance, a team that was minus-150 (60 percent win probability) in each of its first 81 games would be valued as a 97.2 (60 percent x 162) win team.
Toronto Blue Jays
Vegas projection: 82.5 wins
My projection: 86 wins
Current record/pace: 45-46 (80-win pace)
Season-to-date pricing: 94.9 wins
What has gone right: The Blue Jays have been the offensive juggernaut they looked to be in spring training.
Who knows if it's a relaxed confidence in the field that comes from high offensive production, or the addition of defensive standouts Josh Donaldson and Russell Martin, but the Blue Jays have moved up from 20th and 17th in 2013 and 2014, respectively, to ninth in adjusted defensive efficiency this year. A very tangible measurement of Martin's presence comes from runners erased via caught stealing. With Martin now behind the plate, the Blue Jays went from 28th last season to sixth in percentage of base stealers caught. Further -- and this isn't in the adjusted defensive rating above -- Martin continues to be one of the best pitch framers in baseball, per Baseball Prospectus, getting his pitchers nearly five runs' worth of extra strike calls through the first half of this season, good for ninth in baseball.
What has gone wrong: While the offense turned out to be as good as hoped, the pitching staff turned out to be just as challenged as feared. Remember how the hitters ranked high in all components of offense? Well, the Blue Jays' rotation is somewhat of the mirror opposite, ranking 24th, 24th and 27th in AVG, OBP and SLG against, respectively.
While the rotation is without question below average, the relief corps' middling performance has been a bit deceiving. Based on component skills (strikeout percentage, walk percentage and ground ball percentage), the Blue Jays project to have the fourth-lowest ERA across baseball; however, they have only the 16th-best ERA. SIERA, a projected ERA measure based on component skills, assumes average defensive support, but as mentioned above, that shouldn't be a factor for the Blue Jays because they've had an above-average defense this year. Cluster luck calculations estimate the Blue Jays should have given up nine fewer runs than they actually did, so it looks like all of it came at the bullpen's expense.
Second-half outlook: Speaking of cluster luck, the Blue Jays' offense may have been the best in baseball in the season's first half, but it was also the luckiest, which may come as a surprise to those who have watched Minnesota play this year. Stripped of all luck, the Blue Jays would still have the highest-scoring offense in baseball, but their adjusted run differential suggests they are a team with mid-80s win talent instead of mid-90s.
Without question, Toronto has the most explosive lineup in the division, and I stand by my preseason preview: To have any reasonable chance to win 90 games, the Blue Jays need an ace to emerge. Thus far into the season, there don't seem to be any candidates in-house, so for the Blue Jays to take the division, they need to acquire an arm or two at the trade deadline -- or hope no one else in the division pulls away.