We're halfway through the 2015 Major League Baseball season, which means wins have been banked, the St. Louis Cardinals are dusting off the playoff-ticket printing press and the Philadelphia Phillies have confirmed tee times for the first week in October.
But most importantly for our purposes, spring training projections can be evaluated because history tells us at least 70 percent of October's participants have been identified. MLB's 10-team postseason is only four years old, but from 2012 to 2014, a minimum of seven of the 10 teams slotted for the playoffs at the All-Star break each year have made it to the postseason. Overall, 22 of the 30 teams that made the playoffs would have also made the playoffs if the season ended at that year's All-Star break.
Of course, attempting to identify the other teams is the fun part of handicapping. So let's dig into the first half of the 2015 season, compare results with expectations and possibly find some over- and undervalued teams for the next three months.
Note: Records are reflective of all games played through Sunday.
All statistics are through each team's 81st game.
Season-to-date pricing adds the implied win probability from the money line of each team's first 81 games and converts it to 162 games. For instance, a team that was minus-150 (60 percent win probability) in each of its first 81 games would be valued as a 97.2 (60 percent x 162) win team.
Detroit Tigers
Vegas projection: 84.5 wins
My projection: 80 wins
Current record/pace: 44-43 (81-win pace)
Season-to-date pricing: 85.3 wins
What has gone right: Despite coming off a 256-inning workload in 2014 (including a playoff start), David Price has shown zero effects of that usage in 2015.
At this point it's impossible not to credit the Tigers for the savvy acquisition and subsequent development of Astros castoff J.D. Martinez. With 48 home runs in a little over a season of work while wearing a Tigers uniform, there's adequate evidence that the Tigers may have unearthed the next Jose Bautista. Martinez is an enormous asset to the lineup and his cost effectiveness will give the Tigers plenty of flexibility in the offseason.
With Jose Iglesias having a career year at the plate and Martinez augmenting an already powerful core featuring Miguel Cabrera and Yoenis Cespedes, the Tigers have turned to slugfests as a way to maintain a .500 record. How many slugfests have the Tigers been in? From June 17 to July 8, all 19 games the Tigers played went over the posted game total in Vegas.
What has gone wrong: Although fun for fans, shootouts aren't the best blueprint for consistent winning and the six-to-eight-week loss of the never-been-injured-before Cabrera calls into serious question the viability of that approach. The Tigers need to win shootouts because they have no way to suppress runs allowed. As mentioned above, outside of Price the rotation is abysmal, but it's not like Brad Ausmus can use a quick hook to try to turn every game into a four-inning battle of the bullpens. The Tigers' bullpen has the sixth-worst ERA in the majors, and even more alarming, the next-to-last SIERA -- a better predictor of bullpen ERA for the rest of the season.
Then there's the defense. It doesn't put them at too much of a competitive disadvantage versus anyone else in their division except for the Royals, but as has been the case for years now, the Tigers are well below average at converting batted balls into outs. They ranked 24th through 81 games, and with a pitching staff as limited as Detroit's, it only makes a bad situation worse.
Second-half outlook: Reread the sentence above comparing the Tigers' rotation to the Phillies' pitching staff and then take a look at the season-to-date pricing above. How the Tigers have been priced higher on a daily basis than the Royals is not only baffling to me, it's a study in perceptions; high-octane offenses and name brands always get valued higher than low-profile efficiency.
It may look invisible, but winning baseball games is as much about preventing runs as scoring them, and the Royals' bullpen and defense are so much more above average than the Tigers' offense is that I can't imagine Detroit will catch Kansas City by season's end. In fact, not only am I doubling down on my preseason "under" call for the Tigers, I think you can close your eyes and pick against the Tigers the rest of the way, and it will be a profitable endeavor.