With Jon Jones, the former top "pound-for-pound" fighter in the UFC, on the shelf indefinitely, the light heavyweight division is now up for grabs far earlier than anyone expected. And that could mean much more competitive pairings for a division that has watched Jones clean out all the top competition during a dominant eight-fight title reign.
With just weeks to go before UFC 187, the new title matchup between Anthony Johnson and Daniel Cormier is now on the table, and the odds are in.
Breaking the odds
Oddsmaker Nick Kalikas of MMAOddsbreaker.com has released the opening odds for the new title matchup. Former title challenger Daniel Cormier will open as a slight minus-140 favorite, with the underdog Johnson at plus-110. These margins will tighten up after initial action comes in, and as the fight date approaches.
The glaring takeaway here is that this will be a much closer matchup than the original title fight with Jones, who was a comfortable minus-260 favorite over Johnson at plus-220. In fact, that matchup was one of Jones' closer betting lines, and we are now faced with a near pick 'em between Johnson and Cormier.
During Jones' title reign, on average he was a 4-to-1 favorite against challengers, with the closest odds coming in his fight against Cormier. Cormier steps in as the late challenger, but assumes the role of slight favorite against Johnson, who remains an underdog -- but just barely.
However, Johnson is no stranger to underdog status, and apparently has been underestimated since his return to the UFC in 2014. Since returning, Johnson has been an underdog twice -- in his matchups with Phil Davis (plus-220) and Alexander Gustafsson (plus-260) -- and a favorite only once, against Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (minus-660). Johnson won all three fights in convincing fashion, so don't expect him to flinch in the face of nearly imperceptible underdog status.
Conversely, Cormier has enjoyed the role of heavy favorite in each of his UFC appearances leading up to the title shot against Jones. Cormier rolled through the likes of heavyweights Roy Nelson and Frank Mir, then light heavyweights Patrick Cummins and Dan Henderson, while averaging more than 4-to-1 odds. But that's not to say he's always been fully appreciated by the market. While competing in Strikeforce, Cormier was a mild underdog twice to larger heavyweights Antonio Silva and Josh Barnett en route to winning the Strikeforce heavyweight Grand Prix against fairly long cumulative odds.
The betting odds here reflect what should be a very closely contested matchup, in potentially a far more competitive era for the division. Both men have paths to victory, and a quick peak at the performance metrics reveal why this is the case.
Performance stats
The performance stats of these two fighters are surprisingly similar, and there are "ties" in several metrics. However, it's important to remember some of Johnson's fights came in smaller weight classes, while Cormier was competing as a heavyweight for most of his career. That said, this matchup will have a familiar feel for both men, as Johnson will have a sizable range advantage while Cormier is accustomed to having to close the gap.
The striking advantage likely goes to Johnson, who is one of the hardest hitters in the UFC, but who also shows up as fairly technically sound on the statline. The ground game will be the bigger question here. Cormier's Olympic-caliber wrestling skills have been useful in most of his fights to date, but were largely absent in his five-round decision loss to Jones. Meanwhile, the hole in Johnson's game, at least historically, has been his grappling. Johnson has been submitted three times in his only real UFC losses (excluding the one loss by unintentional eye poke). However, Johnson appears to have improved his defensive wrestling, notably dominating Davis for three rounds at UFC 172 in his return to the promotion.
If Johnson can indeed keep the fight standing, then he should have the upper hand in the striking matchup. But as with many MMA matchups, that "if" is quite critical to how the fight will play out. Lines this close have flipped sides before based on market action, so don't be surprised to see some movement due to the closeness of the matchup and the enticing and affordable prices at play for a title fight.
In money-line odds presented here, favorites are negative values. E.g., a money line of minus-300 for a favorite means you must risk $300 to win $100. Underdogs are positive values. E.g., a money line of plus-250 means you win $250 by risking $100. Prop bets follow the same rules. The analysis offered here does not include unit-based bet recommendations or account for final closing lines. Raw data is provided by FightMetric, with analysis by Reed Kuhn, author of "Fightnomics: The Hidden Numbers and Science in Mixed Martial Arts."