Katie Taylor will look to make it 3-0 against Amanda Serrano when they meet Friday for Taylor's undisputed junior welterweight championship at New York's Madison Square Garden (Netflix, 8 p.m. ET).
Taylor won the first fight in April 2022 by split decision and followed up with a unanimous decision win in the rematch last November. Both fights were very close, and that created calls for a trilogy fight.
In the co-main event, Alycia Baumgardner defends her undisputed junior lightweight championship against Jennifer Miranda in what could be a very interesting matchup with an early finish.
On Saturday at Louis Armstrong Stadium in Queens, New York, Edgar Berlanga takes on Hamzah Sheeraz in a super middleweight bout (DAZN PPV, 5 p.m. ET). Berlanga won his first 16 fights by first-round stoppages but has only two KOs in his last eight fights.
In the co-main, Shakur Stevenson puts his WBC lightweight title on the line against William Zepeda in what could be the fight of the weekend.
With Serrano a slight favorite in her fight against Taylor, and Baumgardner the biggest favorite on the all-women card, where is the best value for bettors? Stevenson is another big favorite, and knowing his style, the sure bet is that the fight will go to a decision. But is that the best bet?
ESPN betting expert Ian Parker breaks down the top fights on both cards and offers betting guidance.
Odds accurate as of Thursday. All odds by ESPN BET
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Katie Taylor (+160) vs. Amanda Serrano (-200)
Despite trailing 2-0 going into her trilogy fight against Taylor, Serrano sits as the almost 2-1 betting favorite. The first fight was very competitive, and in the second, Serrano had moments when she had Taylor hurt but couldn't close it out. With another opportunity to finally get a win in what could be another epic showdown, Serrano will be looking to utilize the two clear advantages she has over Taylor: her power and pace.
There are a lot of ways to find value in this fight.
1. I am on the Serrano side going into this fight, but if the price tag of -175 is a bit high for your liking, take her to win by decision at -110. As powerful as Serrano is and even with her ability to hurt opponents, she is facing, in Taylor, a fighter whose grit and durability are almost unmatched.
2. With Serrano being known for her power, there are a few props that have tremendous value and are worth a play. Even as durable as Taylor is, she is almost 40 years old, so I would say there is a ton of value in Taylor being knocked down (+350).
3. If you are on the Taylor side, the moneyline is +140. But if you are feeling lucky, take Taylor to get knocked down and still win (+2000). That certainly isn't out of the realm of possibility. Taylor could get dropped early but outpoint Serrano the rest of the way.
Alycia Baumgardner (-3500) vs. Jennifer Miranda (+1200)
How do we get any value out of Baumgardner, who should have no issue with Miranda and is the biggest betting favorite on the card? The only way to bet on this fight is to take Baumgardner to win by decision at -190 or by KO/TKO at +165. I think the value is in the KO/TKO prop. Baumgardner should have the advantage everywhere in this fight, and she carries decent KO power (7 KOs in 15 fights). She should have no issue pushing the pace, overwhelming Miranda with high volume and eventually landing a knockout punch. I am surprised we are getting this good of a number for the KO/TKO for the defending champ.
Savannah Marshall (-550) vs. Shadasia Green (+375)
Marshall is another big favorite, as she sits at -500 against Green. This line is way too wide, as Green does present a threat with her power and speed, and considering that Marshall is fighting for the first time in two years. However, Marshall has the experience advantage and has consistently fought high-level competition, including Claressa Shields and Franchon Crews-Dezurn. And she's the overall better boxer. As long as Marshall doesn't get caught early by Green's power, I would look to get that -500 betting line down by parlaying Marshall to win by decision at -120.
Edgar Berlanga (+110) vs. Hamzah Sheeraz (-135)
At -135, I think we are getting a very good number for Sheeraz as he takes on the always aggressive and dangerous Berlanga. There is no question that Sheeraz is the better boxer, but he has to avoid the explosive onslaught Berlanga brings to every fight in Round 1. That and any brawls along the way are Berlanga's paths to victory. If Sheeraz can keep his composure, he should be able to weather the early storm and take over as the fight goes on. With Berlanga notoriously fading later in fights, there are a few ways to bet on this fight.
1. -135 Moneyline for Sheeraz. This price is low enough that you can bet it comfortably without having to stress a method of victory.
2. Sheeraz by KO/TKO at +325 is a great number for a fighter with great power and a great gas tank, against a fighter who slows down and loses his luster as the fight goes on.
3. The fight to not go the distance at +105. If you don't want to bet a side because of how close it is -- and rightfully so -- betting the finish at plus odds is a great way to go. We know Berlanga will be going for the KO any chance he gets, and if he doesn't get it, he might exhaust himself to the point where Sheeraz can finish him later in the fight.
Shakur Stevenson (-1100) vs William Zepeda (+650)
At -1100, Stevenson is the biggest favorite on Saturday's card, and if you've watched him long enough, you know the price tag on him to win by decision isn't going to be cheap. However, at -200, I don't hate it. Zepeda is a knockout artist (27 KOs in 33 fights), so I expect Stevenson to defend and win with his high volume and point-scoring style while never putting himself at risk, therefore not going for the KO himself. If you want better value, take Stevenson to win by decision and the fight to go the distance at +105.