Jamel Herring will defend his WBO junior lightweight world title against the undefeated Shakur Stevenson in the main of a Top Rank Boxing card in Atlanta, Georgia (Saturday, ESPN/ESPN+, 10:30 p.m. ET). Herring (23-2, 11 KOs) enters the ring on a seven-fight winning streak, making the fourth defense of his world title, and he's coming off of arguably the biggest win of his career -- a sixth round TKO victory over Carl Frampton in April.
Stevenson (16-0, 8 KOs), a former featherweight world champion, will be the favorite on Saturday. At 24 years old, he's 11 years younger than Herring, and his defensive prowess makes him one of the most promising young fighters in boxing today. However, Herring has made a habit of pulling off upsets in fights in which he's being overlooked.
So what should we expect in this title fight between 130-pound southpaws at very different points in their respective careers? ESPN boxing analyst and two-division world champion Timothy Bradley Jr. weighs in on the key factors that will shape the outcome of this clash between Herring and Stevenson.
Similarities between two left-handed fighters
Southpaws are not really used to fighting against other left-handed fighters, and it's something that they are going to have to adjust to. Herring and Stevenson are basically looking at themselves in the mirror, so to speak. When you're facing an orthodox fighter, for example, you know the right spots to aim for, where to hit.
Things as simple as shooting a jab straight down the middle can get complicated. There's really not a whole lot of battling with the lead hand going on. When they're moving, the natural instinct for a southpaw is to circle to their right, which is the natural movement. They're more used to standing opposite an orthodox fighter, who's typically circling to their left, and coming at them. When both guys are circling right, they're not going to create the same angles and openings that they're used to seeing, and the ability to adjust will be crucial.
Another factor is that there are parts of a southpaw's body that are more exposed than they might be used to, when facing another southpaw. The liver, which is on the right side of the torso, sits front and center, open from a big shot from the back hand if it's not protected. They can turn all the power on, and if they connect flush, it can be a key shot, basically, that can either transform a fight or even end it with a body punch.
Both of these guys have overlapping styles, similar in some ways but not identical by any means. Both of these guys are boxers -- Herring's a boxer/puncher, and Stevenson's more of a pure boxer, not as much of a big power puncher. Both guys have really good jabs.
There's a lot of similarities. Both throw straight left hands, both guys throw great uppercuts, body work. Both guys represented the United States in the Olympics.
The differences that separate Stevenson and Herring
The main difference, physically, is the body type -- Herring is 3 inches taller and has a 4-inch reach advantage. But Herring is also 11 years older. Herring has been in the game a lot longer and has suffered a lot of wear and tear along the way.
Stevenson's edge comes from his technical skills, and how he approaches a fight. He is extremely calculated with every move that he makes -- every single one has a purpose. He's a chess player inside the ring, and he's not a guy who is going to throw caution to the wind. He wants to make everything count. He's fearless because he believes in himself, but cautious of taking the wrong risks. He likes to fight his fight on his terms.
And that's not a bad thing. Stylistically, he's a guy that can do that by taking the air out of the ball and make a fight his brand of ugly. Stevenson is probably the best defensive fighter in boxing right now. He doesn't get hit often, and that can become demoralizing for an opponent, when you're constantly getting hit, and you can't hit him. It's a gift that Stevenson has, to be able to see these punches coming.
There's a lot that goes into that. You have to know your range and where you are relative to your opponent and the ropes at all times. He has the ability to see things coming before they even happen, based on a certain twitch or body movement that an opponent makes.
How could Herring find the upset against Stevenson?
Stevenson shouldn't underestimate Herring. I think that's the biggest thing that could trip him up. Herring fights better when his back is against the wall, because he has plenty of experience in that position. He's consistently being overlooked -- we saw it heading into the Carl Frampton fight, where everyone was talking about Frampton making history in a third division, and Herring was an afterthought. Herring wasn't expected wither to beat Masayuki Ito for the title in the first place.
I would say Herring's back is against the wall against Stevenson, even more so that any of those previous fights. He's the champion, but he's being treated as the clear B-side. No one believes that Herring can beat Stevenson. But he does.
So how could Herring beat Stevenson? Forget about the head. Stevenson keeps his head out of range while he's moving, and I haven't seen anyone to this point in Stevenson's career primarily attack his body. As a boxer, we're told at a young age that if you can't get to the head, you need to hit the body, and you have to hit something. Herring can aim for the shoulder, the body, the chest. It's something to disrupt Stevenson's timing, which is so crucial to what he does.
Another thing Herring can do is use his reach advantage, and his height. His jab should be a key weapon in that part of the fight. And this fight, reach could be a big advantage for Herring. One of the things that I've noticed about Stevenson's opponents, is that they can't ever land their jab. And if you can't land your jab, you're not going to be able to execute any other offense. The jab is the table setter.
If there's going to be an opening for Herring, his left uppercut on the inside could be a good weapon. That punch could be a sneaky shot he could look for when Stevenson is in the high guard, trying to press forward. A straight left hand on the inside could also be an effective punch. Stevenson drops his lead hand on the inside, and kind of does that Floyd Mayweather shoulder roll kind of thing, and Herring should look for that opening if it presents itself.
Which version of Stevenson will we see?
I think that Stevenson has heard the criticism, the heat he gets for winning fights in a cautious way, especially in the way his fight against Jeremia Nakathila went down back in June. I think being a fighter -- a young superstar fighter -- it's hard to deal with that criticism and impossible not to hear it. And I think that it definitely will propel him to do some things that you probably wouldn't expect of him this time around, having watched some of his previous fights.
I know that Stevenson wants to be liked, and I know that he wants to be great. I think that we're going to see a side of Stevenson that we haven't seen in the last few fights -- a version of Stevenson that has an edge and an attitude, as he looks to make a statement.
Stevenson's weapon of choice against Herring should be his back hand. Herring is weak on his right side. Herring gets cut often on his right side, and I think his vulnerability there is one of the key factors in this fight. Stevenson should be throwing a lot of straight left hands, and looping lefts, to attack that right side of Herring's body.
How will the fight play out?
Some folks are worried we might see another defense-heavy fight as Stevenson dictates the pace, and that's certainly a possibility. But I see this fight being a lot better, exceeding expectations. When you have two southpaws, someone has to get aggressive. And that someone will probably be Herring, because he's not going to outbox Stevenson, so he'll have to get aggressive and push the issue.
The criticism from Stevenson's last fight will probably be in the back of his head, and push him to be more aggressive as well. I see a really good chess match in the beginning turning into a firefight towards the back end in this fight. Herring is going to give everything he has, and Stevenson, the younger, fresher, hungrier fighter has a lot to prove.
Stevenson's fighting for more than a world title in a second division. He's fighting for respect. Boxing is more than a championship. World titles and money, every fighter is after that, but you can't set aside what it means to be respected and loved by the fans and the boxing community. It is important. I think we're going to see the best Shakur Stevenson that we've ever seen.
While everyone's looking for a technical fight and a 12-round boxing decision, I think Stevenson is going to look for a KO shot late, and I think he's going to do it with the left hand. He's going to find a way to open a cut up, and that's going to make things very, very difficult for Herring, with blood dripping down in his eyes and everything else he's going to have to be dealing with.
I think Stevenson steps it up and stops Herring late, in the 11th or 12th round, or settles for a decision with Herring hanging on at the end.