Tyson Fury and Deontay Wilder fight for the third time on Saturday in Las Vegas, with the WBC heavyweight title and the lineal championship on the line (ESPN+ PPV, 9 p.m. ET). The first time they fought, Wilder knocked Fury down twice, in Round 9 and Round 12. But after Fury got back to his feet both times, the judges scored the fight a split draw.
The rematch was an entirely different story. Fury walked Wilder down, battered him, and one of Wilder's cornermen threw in the towel, giving Fury a seventh-round TKO victory and handing Wilder his first career loss.
Ahead of the trilogy fight, ESPN analyst and two-division world champion Timothy Bradley Jr. breaks down key moments from both fights and projects potential difference-makers for Fury-Wilder 3.
The way that Fury pushed the issue with Wilder in their second fight reminded me a lot of what Muhammad Ali did to Ken Norton the second time around. In their first fight, Ali gave up a little bit too much real estate and Norton ended up winning because of his pure aggression, standing on top of Ali and pushing him back. Ali tried to dance around, but Norton was just too strong.
In their rematch Ali came out and decided he's going to impose his will. He stuck his flag in the center of the ring and said he wasn't going to back up too often. He's going to find his spots and move only when he has to. Telling Norton, "You're gonna know that I'm here." That's how he was able to get that victory.
A lot of people say you shouldn't follow a puncher around, that you shouldn't go after a puncher. But Norton-Ali 2 and Wilder-Fury 2 proved otherwise. Fury did the right thing by stepping on the gas, and he surprised Wilder -- backed him up and put him on his back foot.
Fury stood his ground, and that's the way you're supposed to fight a bully, a puncher that relies solely on his one-punch power and the intimidation factor that comes with it.
"I don't care what weight class you look at, from heavyweight down to strawweight, a superior boxer will always give a pure puncher trouble. Nine times out of 10, the boxer is going to win unless something extraordinary happens." Timothy Bradley Jr.
From watching film it was clear that Wilder doesn't fight well off the back foot, and he doesn't defend well. A lot of his power is generated when he's marching forward, and as long as Fury was able to keep him off balance and constantly aware of where Wilder's right hand was, he was OK.
I don't care what weight class you look at, from heavyweight down to strawweight, a superior boxer will always give a pure puncher trouble. Nine times out of 10, the boxer is going to win unless something extraordinary happens.
Despite the draw in the first fight, let's put things into perspective by asking a simple question: how many rounds has Wilder actually won against Fury across two fights? If you count the first round for Wilder in the second fight, that's really the most you can give him. I thought he got blown out, and lost every single round, but let's give Wilder the benefit of the doubt, so that's six rounds for Fury, one for Wilder.
Then you have the 12 rounds they had the first time around, and watching that fight back, Fury probably should have won eight rounds to four, minimum. Not to say the judges were way off -- with the two knockdowns, that would be a 114-112 score for Fury, which is what one judge had, and another scorecard was 113-113 (the third judge had the fight 115-111 for Wilder).
I don't think it was even that close -- I thought Fury won every round besides the two he got dropped in. So when you take 19 rounds right there, at best for Wilder, he won five, and Fury won 14 of them, at best. Fury's just a better fighter. If he stays on his feet, he's going to win this fight.
Could Wilder's change in camps make the difference in the third fight?
Wilder hasn't said too much of anything ahead of this third fight. He's determined to get this victory back, and he feels like he's made the proper changes that he needs by training with Malik Scott.
Wilder never really had to learn a lot of the more subtle mechanics of the sweet science, and instead relied on his incredible power. Now, he decides after 40-plus fights to learn how to actually box and move? Use defense and a variety of jabs to try to set up his offense? That's just fine until you get hit upside your head. In those situations, you're almost always going to revert back to what you know as a fighter, what comes instinctively.
I see Wilder trying to disguise his offense, that big right hand, a little bit more this time around, especially early. But I don't expect something dramatic to change. Any attempt to try to outbox Fury would be stupid, completely fruitless.
If I was in Wilder's corner, what I would tell him is to fight fire with fire, in terms of what Fury did in the second fight. Wilder has the biggest weapon in this fight, which is his right hand. He should really want to step up to Fury, and he needs to fight him where he is. If Fury's going to push forward, Wilder just has to step to him right back.
I wouldn't tell Wilder to get on his bike and try to set things up for most of the fight, and then try to find something late. For what? If I'm Wilder, we need to get this guy out of here. We need to go home early. We don't need to sit here and play around. That has to be the game plan.
Despite all of the struggles over the two fights, Wilder knows he has the power in his hands to put Fury on the ground. Right out of the gate, he has to be authoritative, and show that he's not in there to lay down for Fury. Send a message in the first round.
I believe the first round will be very important for both guys. Fury said before the second fight that he was going to attack Wilder, and then he came out of the gate blasting at Wilder. He's saying the same thing this time around, and I believe he will.
Wilder should come out fast and plant his flag right in the center of the ring. Make it clear that Fury isn't going to back him up. Figure out how to dictate the pace early on, or at least not get wrapped up in what Fury wants to do. All Wilder has to do is land one clean punch to put Fury on the ground. If he can do that early, it reshapes the whole fight. It boosts Wilder's confidence, makes him even more aggressive, and puts doubt in Fury's head.
What adjustments helped Fury dominate the second fight?
It wasn't said on the broadcast, or talked about a lot, but one of the smartest things Fury did in the second fight was how he neutralized Wilder's right hand. As I was watching that fight again, I saw Fury moving towards the right hand of Wilder. That meant Fury was able to see it coming, and it also kept Wilder from winding that punch up.
Against a prolific puncher like Wilder, you don't want to go backwards, because that's how you get clipped. With a puncher, you need to make sure that you have the right distance, and being able to constantly calculate distance like Fury can is an incredible asset.
We saw what happened when Fury pulled straight back in the first fight -- he ended up on the end of that punch from Wilder.
One of the things that Wilder did well in the first fight was how he managed to land his right hand, by setting it up off the left hook. That combination allowed him to land the right hand flush, and by any calculation, that should've been enough to win him that first fight.
But even after feeling all of the power in Wilder's right hand, and going out, eyes rolling into the back of his head, at the last second he sat up like The Undertaker.
The act of just being able to get up from those punches, especially the second time, did wonders for Fury's confidence. He went into that second fight knowing he absorbed Wilder's absolute best. He went into that second fight with that swagger, and then called his shot and stopped Wilder the second time. He made Wilder's corner throw in the towel from how badly Wilder was beaten up, bleeding and falling all over himself in the ring.
That second fight makes Fury all the more confident heading into this third fight. How could he not be cool, calm and collected?
Should Fury expect something new from Wilder? Is Fury vulnerable?
Fury understands exactly what he's up against. He's thinking, "OK, Malik Scott, you want to work on his boxing?" He's still weak on his back foot. Fury's still going to push Wilder back. He's still going to battle that right hand, move towards that right hand. Fury's going to dare Wilder to throw that big right hand, because when he does, Fury's going to make it miss, and then make Wilder pay.
That's not to say that Fury doesn't have weaknesses. One of the biggest is when he pulls straight back, which exposes his body quite a bit. Fury likes to feint to get you out of position, but if you don't fall for it -- if you stand strong, come behind that with a solid jab, remain defensively sound, all of that at the same time -- that gives Fury problems. It's all about staying ready to punch when you have an opening.
But that's easier said than done. Fury is so good at getting his opponents out of position with his feints, and his foot feints, along with his upper body movement and a variety of antics and other over the top things to try to get into his opponents' heads. If you fall into those traps, Fury is going to lull you to sleep. Fury allows his opponent to make a mistake by rushing their offense and trying to force something to get at him. He entices you. Antagonizes you. That's what he does, so you can't fall for the antics.
Which flaws are holding Wilder back?
Wilder doesn't have great footwork. He doesn't move often. He does his best work coming forward, being aggressive. I see him moving a lot, but there's a difference between educated movement and just jumping up and down, thinking you're boxing. You have to make sure you have the proper distance.
Wilder struggles with distance at times, and when he's too close, he doesn't shorten his shots up. He's still throwing that looping right hand, even if someone is standing one foot away from him. That's a big issue. Fury sees all of that stuff coming.
Wilder is also horrible in transition --from offense to defense, and back to offense. That's one of the big reasons why Fury kept making him pay in that second fight. Fury allowed him to punch, made him miss, and when Wilder ended up out of position, that's when Fury poured it on with combinations, backing him up.
The right hand was money for Fury in the second fight, and it's going to be money again -- especially if Wilder shoots the jab from the hip like he always does. He doesn't keep his hands up; when he shoots a jab with his left hand, the right hand is down. When you shoot the right hand, Wilder's left hand is down. These are fundamentals that Wilder is missing, and Fury is going to take advantage anytime he's out of position, any time he's dropping those hands.
For Fury, everything is set up off of the jab and feints, to get his opponent out of position, never knowing when he's going to attack. And that was incredibly effective the last time they fought.
Which X-factors could shape the third fight?
Staying off the ropes is going to be critical for Wilder. If he's there, like we saw in the second fight, Fury will tee him up. Wilder has a tendency of standing straight up in the corner, and if he doesn't get his back off the ropes he's going to be in trouble again. If Wilder wants a real chance at winning the fight, he has to do everything he can to keep the action in the center of the ring, or put Fury's back against those ropes.
It's the same game plan that Anthony Joshua should have had against Oleksandr Usyk -- and he didn't. Wilder needs to push Fury back, stay tight with his defense and get Fury into a firefight.
I think Wilder's in better shape than he was the second time around, and overall, I think where both fighters land with their weights is going to be a critical factor. If Wilder comes in around 215 to 220, he's dangerous. But anything higher than that, you can forget about him winning this fight. The first fight, Wilder came in at 212.5, and he was moving. The second time, he was 231 pound and sluggish.
If Fury is under 260 -- 255, 256, or somewhere around there -- he's not going to have that same pop on his punches, and it's going to be hard for him to keep Wilder off of him. Fury was 256 ½ in that first fight, and couldn't hold Wilder off late. Second fight, he was 273, but still had his speed and agility at that weight. He had more power, and he was able to absorb the punching power of Wilder as well.
Prediction
I remember picking against Fury ahead of the second fight. Normally, in a boxer vs. big puncher matchup, I go with the boxer. But I went against the grain for a couple of reasons. I believed in Wilder's power, especially after he knocked Fury down twice. I also felt that because of the way Fury looked when he fought Otto Wallin in between the Wilder fights, he looked vulnerable, and something was lacking.
So I picked Wilder to win. But in that second fight, Fury came in with a purpose, told the world how aggressive he was going to be and then delivered on that promise.
I don't see this third fight going the distance -- somebody is getting knocked out. And if I had to put my money on it, I'd say Wilder is getting knocked out, and I think Fury stops Wilder sooner this time.