Unified junior middleweight world champion Jermell Charlo is a win away from adding a fourth major title and becoming an undisputed champ. Standing in his way is fellow titleholder Brian Castano, whom he'll face on Saturday at the AT&T Center in San Antonio, Texas (Showtime, 9 p.m. EDT).
Charlo (34-1, 18 KOs), of Richmond, Texas, regained the WBC belt with an 11th-round KO victory over Tony Harrison in their rematch in 2019, then added the WBA and IBF titles with an eighth-round TKO of Jeison Rosario in September.
"Castano is going to leave everything in the ring. So we're not playing any games," Charlo said during a prefight news conference. "I've been training really hard. I've added things that have made me better because I know for a fact that this is going to be a great fight."
Charlo, 31, understands the stakes and his focus is on more than just the titles.
"This is a major fight because it's history for me and my family," Charlo said. "It was due time to get in there for this fight. The belts and the money are not on my mind. What's on my mind is the legacy."
The 31-year-old Castano (17-0-1, 12 KOs), of Buenos Aires, Argentina, defeated Patrick Teixeira in February to win the WBA belt. This is Castano's first defense.
"This is my opportunity. This is the fight of my life," Castano said. "I've seen Charlo knock down a lot of fighters with just one punch. That's something to look out for. However, I have more of a variety in my arsenal than anybody he has fought before. If I have to be more aggressive and go for more power instead of finesse, rest assured that I can knock him down as well."
Charlo is a -230 favorite, according to Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill. Can he get the job done? We asked former opponents and boxing insiders for their insight and predictions.
Editor's note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.
Timothy Bradley Jr., ESPN boxing analyst, former junior welterweight and welterweight world champ
How Charlo wins: I think this fight is going to be very explosive. Charlo is a guy that can fight off his back foot, but also likes to attack. I think Charlo can mix things up, he works his combinations very well -- to the head and to the body. He's a very strong, very disciplined fighter. Castano exposes himself too much for my liking. Being aggressive in the ring is great, but doing it at the right time, that's another thing. Charlo has pretty much seen it all. He has been in the ring with someone that can pressure him, like Tony Harrison, the last guy that beat him. Harrison is a boxer/puncher, a tall, lanky guy, able to mix things up and punch at the right time. Castano is not that kind of fighter, he's a guy that's looking to throw volume, be in your face and force you to make mistakes, and I think that's gonna work in Charlo's favor. Charlo has the boxing ability to be able to pick and choose his spots wisely, when to attack and when he should retrieve.
Castano tends to launch forward to attack and he makes the same mistake that a lot of other fighters make when launching forward -- he doesn't have a really good sense of range and where he needs to be at times. So at times he will launch forward and get exposed and get open for an uppercut. Charlo has a really good uppercut, and also a right hand. When Castano falls short with his offense he can run into a right hand -- and we know that Charlo's right hand is deadly.
How Castano wins: Castano is a bully and his style of fight is an attacking, in-your-face mode. He wants to maul you. He can use his feet a bit and move, but he doesn't have the best footwork. He does cross his feet at times, he gets himself out of position, especially if you attack him to the body with straight shots. But he's very explosive and unpredictable because he will attack you when you least expect it. He lets his hands go, is a strong puncher and he will leave his feet sometimes to connect his power shots. He's very creative with his combinations. However, his lunge forward is something he can't do against a guy with Charlo's pedigree. Castano beat Errol Spence Jr. in the amateurs, so he also has some pedigree as well.
X-factor: I think the person that is able to make the proper adjustments is the one that's going to win this fight. I honestly feel both guys have the ability to do so, but I would say that Charlo is a little more technical and cleaner with his combinations. I think he will be able to make better adjustments. He also has the better corner, a proven trainer in Derrick James.
Prediction: I think Charlo wins this fight in emphatic fashion and I think it is going to be a KO. Charlo wins in eight or nine rounds -- he's going to catch Castano with something nasty, either an uppercut or a straight right hand.
Francisco "Chia" Santana, former welterweight contender, lost to Charlo in 2011
How Charlo wins: Jermell Charlo is a power puncher. He can box, but he also got some pop in his punches, especially with the right hand. That hand is a key factor, and I like how he sets up that right hand with his jab. Charlo doesn't want to be against the ropes for too long, he maneuvers very well inside the ring, so I'm sure he will be at the distance he needs to be to land his punches without worrying about Castano's.
How Castano wins: He needs to make it a dirty fight, rough Charlo up a little bit and let his hands go. He needs to know he's gonna have to take some punches to be able to get in there and be able to land some of his shots. Kind of like Tony Harrison did in the first fight to beat Charlo. Castano is a lot shorter and he has a very good overhand right, but he has to break him down, outwork him, take him to the corner and let his hands go.
X-factor: Charlo's right uppercut. He caught me with a nice right uppercut when we fought early in our careers, so I know how good it is. I see Castano coming in with his head first and I honestly see Charlo hurting Castano with the right uppercut.
Prediction: I have to go with Charlo with a unanimous decision, or even a late stoppage. Castano is a tough kid, he's unbeaten and he has given his opponents a run for their money. This fight won't be easy.
Raul Marquez, former U.S. Olympian and junior middleweight champion and Showtime boxing analyst
How Charlo wins: He has to establish a really good jab, use his skills. He is a very skillful fighter, knows what to do inside the ring, but Castano has some power and he's going to be aggressive, looking to take over the fight. Charlo needs to stay calm, this is a very important fight. He fights with his emotions. He can't let the crowd or anything get to him. He's gotta stay focused with the jab and set Castano up, rile him [up], counter, maybe attack at key moments in the second part of the fight, look for a KO. He's capable of finishing him early.
How Castano wins: He has to go out and fight, don't give Charlo any respect out of the bat, let him know you are in there to hit him. 'I'm here to stay, I'll take your shots and give you some.' He needs to land some punches to earn Charlo's respect, make him think. Castano is not going to win the fight from the outside, he needs to get in and work.
X-factor: None really. This is a straight fight.
Prediction: I think Charlo will get him late. Charlo has the experience and in the second part of the fight, he can take over. I can see the referee stopping the fight late.
Jeison Rosario, former unified junior middleweight champion, lost to Charlo in 2020
How Charlo wins: Charlo must be precise with his punches, be patient, don't get too excited. He is strong, he is big. Castano puts a lot of pressure on his opponents, but he does not have enough power to compete with Charlo. Charlo needs to take his time, be accurate with his punches, don't waste energy. Take Castano apart little by little and maybe the KO will come. Charlo has power on both hands, but his right hand over the top is his best punch, and I think Charlo is going to hurt Castano with that punch throughout the fight. Charlo's right uppercut is another big weapon for him.
How Castano wins: He needs to have the fight of his life, make a major effort to stay away from Charlo's right hand. He is facing a very strong fighter, who has a lot of experience and is much bigger than him. Castano has to be cautious when going in to put pressure. If he can avoid Charlo's punches and close the distance, and punch inside, he can get a good result.
X-factor: Charlo's [right] hand seems to me to be a big key in this fight. That's the hand that hurt me when I fought Charlo. If he connects that blow, he is likely to end the fight early.
Prediction: Charlo by late KO or unanimous decision. If Castano takes unnecessary risks and starts to exchange punches in the middle of the ring with Charlo, I think Charlo will knock him out. But if Castano moves well and picks his moments to attack, he could frustrate Charlo a bit. However, that won't be enough for him to win.
Emmanuel De Jesus, former junior middleweight contender, lost to Castano in 2016
How Charlo wins: Charlo should use his speed with the jab and keep the distance. He should use his boxing skills. He's just too good. Like we say in Puerto Rico, take Castano to school, teach him a thing or two. Castano is strong, always coming forward, so Charlo can time him with the jab coming in and also keeping a distance with the same jab. I knocked down Castano with a straight right hand when we fought. Castano uses a tight, high guard, but Charlo has a good straight right hand, too, and I believe he will be able to land it and eventually send Castano down.
How Castano wins: By doing the same thing he has been doing and that has brought him success: Go forward, put pressure on Charlo, keep the guard tight and hit the body. I've seen that Charlo is vulnerable when you hit him with body punches. He doesn't like those, nobody does. He can feel them. If Castano can do that from the beginning, attacking the body, he can be successful.
X-factor: Castano's right hook can be an important factor in the fight. He hurt me badly with that hook. Also, Charlo's right uppercut could be a key factor -- if he can connect it, and I believe he will because Castano likes to come forward with a high guard. But the biggest key for Charlo is keeping the distance. Castano is smaller and Charlo is very good when he fights at a distance that best suits him. Give him that, and he will pick you apart.
Prediction: Charlo should win easily. I don't want to say by KO, but he could earn an easy decision. I'm sure Castano is visiting the canvas, I dropped him and Charlo will drop him too. But Castano has a lot of heart, I don't think it'd be easy to knock him out.