Vasiliy Lomachenko returns to the ring for the first time since losing his lightweight world title unification fight to Teofimo Lopez in October 2020. He seems intent on steamrolling his way back to a rematch with Lopez, even if Lopez has stated his disinterest and indifference toward such a fight.
Lomachenko's opponent on Saturday is a familiar one to Lopez -- Masayoshi Nakatani. Two fights before Lopez's upset victory over Lomachenko, Nakatani largely stifled Lopez and forced Lopez into an awkward, uncomfortable decision win. It seems to be Lomachenko's intent to do what Lopez couldn't -- put Nakatani away -- and cast doubt over the definitiveness of Lopez's advantage over Lomachenko. By doing so, it could create public intrigue and interest in a second fight.
Will Lomachenko have what it takes to finish Nakatani? How likely is a Lopez rematch to happen? And what will Lomachenko do if he doesn't get what he's after? ESPN boxing analyst and two-division world champion Timothy Bradley Jr. breaks down everything you need to know about Saturday's Top Rank Boxing main event, as well as what the future could hold for Lomachenko.
Fight overview
Styles make fights, and while that's typically talking about two fighters matching up particularly well, in the case of Lomachenko-Nakatani, we're talking about a mix of styles that's going to allow Lomachenko to be the Lomachenko as we remember him fighting before Lopez. He'll be "The Matrix" whom everybody fell in love with.
Lomachenko starts kind of slowly most times out, downloading in his head everything he needs to know about his opponent that he couldn't learn by training or watching tape. He starts to see what he can get away with, using his feints and his in-and-out movement, changing his head positioning and movement and using different slots. He'll try to establish his presence right out of the gate, and then he'll slowly start putting pressure on Nakatani. Nakatani will try to fight aggression with his own aggression, so if Loma wants to fight, Nakatani will fight.
Nakatani doesn't have a whole lot of bend in his waist. He's tall and lanky, and he does have a huge range advantage over Lomachenko. Nakatani tends to come out quickly and he does possess a strong right hand, but his feet are slow and he tends to stand flat-footed. He's often front-foot dominant, and he likes to come forward. He likes to be the aggressor.
When you have a fighter who likes to stand flat-footed defensively, he has to depend on his head movement, because his feet are not quick enough to get out of range. And unfortunately for Nakatani, he doesn't have great head movement. He's also not very disciplined with his hands, which would be another way for him to protect himself.
If you've seen that little light board that Lomachenko has that we've seen him use in his training videos, that's the type of fight we're going to see. He's going to be touching those lights, and those lights will represent Nakatani's head, his body, and every place in between. Lomachenko is going to be able to display the full arsenal of his footwork, from his front-foot step-step-shuffle-shuffle.
To get into that a little deeper, Lomachenko basically steps around with his front leg and swings the back leg around to get in position -- he gets his whole body off the line of fire, off the center line, and then throws combinations. He also has a beautiful back foot shuffle, where he brings the back foot forward, swings around, gets the angle, brings the front foot with him, repositions himself and works from that position, not allowing his opponent to hit him while he can hit his opponent.
Nakatani has a huge torso for Lomachenko to bang on, and he will. Being the shorter man, one of the advantages is that once you do get on the inside, you have the shorter hands and you can work in there. If you have the quicker feet, you can slip inside and work your counters, whereas the taller opponent, the slower opponent typically, has to let his hands go out at distance, and by the time the bigger guy brings that hand back, the smaller guy is already inside the pocket on him where he's able to counter him quickly, and effectively.
Nakatani doesn't have a really good inside game, and I think that's where Lomachenko is going to want to operate throughout the fight. He's going to apply pressure slowly. It's going to be a slow, suffocating type of fight -- he's going to put the pressure on Nakatani, confuse him and make him miss on the outside, make Nakatani burn energy by using his feints moving forward, sliding in and out.
Lomachenko is going to touch the body. He's going to catch Nakatani over the top with big counters. And slowly, gradually, with each round, Lomachenko is going to turn it up more and more. If Nakatani is going to win this fight, he's going to have to hurt Lomachenko. The way to do that against a southpaw is by starting with that left hook, and then finish with that right hand.
Lomachenko will have to give him a certain degree of respect, especially early, because not only can Nakatani take it, he can also dish it out. But even if Nakatani does land something clean and hurts Lomachenko, we've seen what happens when someone lands a right hand on Lomachenko. We've seen him get put on the canvas by Jorge Linares, but we've also seen what happened after he got back up off the mat.
The wear and tear on Lomachenko
A lot of people are judging Lomachenko and where he is in his career based on his performance against Lopez. Lopez fought a smart fight -- positioning was very important for him -- and then the combination of his hand speed, his power, and the fact that he's simply a naturally bigger guy than Lomachenko. And while Lomachenko isn't done yet, there are some things we should keep an eye on.
It definitely feels like Lomachenko's toward the back end of his career, despite having only 16 fights as a pro, because of the hundreds of amateur fights he had, a 396-1 record as an amateur. Then there's the way he trains -- he trains extremely hard for every single fight. It's almost like he puts a couple of training camps in one -- that's how hard he works.
Mentally, Lomachenko works with a sports psychologist to keep his head right, and he has a lot of loyal people around him. But I think we're starting to see the toll that all of that boxing and all of that training has had on his body, as it seems like he's slowly breaking down. That's why you're seeing injury after injury -- some serious, some less so. What Lomachenko can do moving forward really depends on how well he can maintain himself and avoid major injuries.
If Lomachenko wins, can he manifest a Lopez rematch through sheer willpower?
Timothy Bradley does not think Teofimo Lopez is ready for a title fight after he "got exposed" vs. Masayoshi Nakatani.
Of course it's not a coincidence that Lomachenko has chosen to face Nakatani in his first fight since losing to Lopez. Nakatani gave Lopez issues, taking him the distance in their fight. But it was a different Lopez from the one Lomachenko eventually stepped into the ring with.
It does show you what type of fighter Lomachenko is, and the type of mindset he has. The only thing he has eyes on right now is finding a way to get a rematch with Lopez, no matter what it takes. Lopez doesn't seem to be too interested, and he's been on the record saying he doesn't want to do a rematch, claiming he blew Lomachenko out of the water.
Lomachenko also wants to show that he wasn't 100% going into the Lopez fight, with a shoulder injury that required surgery just days after the fight, standing as the key reason in his mind why Lopez was able to pull off the upset.
Lomachenko is a guy that just hasn't lost much in his career, hasn't dealt with that much. He lost once in the amateurs, and then he came back and beat that guy twice. He wants revenge on Lopez and he'll do whatever is necessary. But in addition to doing what it takes to get Lopez back in the ring, just in terms of fighting the right guys and working his way up, Lomachenko is also fighting against the clock.
How long will Lopez stay at 135 pounds? For now, he says he's going to keep fighting there, defending all of those belts. I know he's been disciplined with his weight, working with Perfecting Athletes -- a company that helps athletes with nutrition and making weight safely -- pretty much year round. But between the fights that are on the table for Lopez, and the battle to stay at lightweight something is going to give, and soon.
What Lomachenko can do to try to force Lopez's hand
Say Lomachenko puts on a spectacular performance against Nakatani. In theory, maybe you could draw the right lines to get him right to Lopez. But Lopez has to agree to that fight, when there's not really a lot of upside. Another route would be to get a fight against Devin Haney, who inherited the WBC lightweight title when Lomachenko was "elevated" to "franchise" champion in October 2019. A lot of people recognize Lopez as the undisputed lightweight champion, and rightly so. He beat Lomachenko, the guy who beat the guy and never lost the WBC belt in the ring.
And knowing Haney, and his temperament, his belief in himself, he wants to be great. He wants to challenge himself against the best fighters in the world. I believe that he wouldn't mind fighting Lomachenko, and Lomachenko wouldn't mind fighting him because of that belt. There's a theoretical asterisk floating in some people's minds about Lopez's undisputed title and that belt is the only piece of the puzzle Lopez doesn't have.
There's other guys that Lomachenko can face that can bring attention toward himself, and maybe give him at least a slightly better chance at a rematch with Lopez. But I don't think anything's going to happen unless Lopez has a change of heart and agrees to fight Lomachenko.
What Lomachenko does if he never gets the Lopez rematch
At the end of the day, I think Lomachenko knows the score. He's not delusional. He's smart, he's thinking calmly and clearly, and he understands that this is a business, and sometimes a fight just isn't going to happen.
Eventually, if the big money for Lopez is in a fight for the undisputed championship at 140 against Josh Taylor, I think he's going to go that way. And that's going to be the end of Lomachenko's chances at a rematch.
Lomachenko's consolation prize in that scenario is that all of the titles Lopez has at 135 would then get released if he makes the move to 140. Then Lomachenko can start back on his climb to become undisputed at 135.
Prediction
Nakatani is a bigger guy, he is a taller guy, rangier. But he's not super skillful. He has a lot of toughness, which is a gift, an important trait, but while toughness is a part of skill, but it's not everything. Boxing skills are more important than just being a tough guy. Nakatani's a very tough guy, he won't quit, but he just makes a ton of mistakes inside the ring and doesn't have much defense. That's combination is the worst kind of matchup for a guy like Lomachenko. He's a calculated, technically sound fighter with immense experience and confidence.
Lomachenko believes he's going to stop Nakatani, and I can't disagree. I believe that Lomachenko is eventually going to find a way to make the referee step in and stop the action, because he's going to beat Nakatani up that bad. I don't think Nakatani is going to quit at all. I don't think his corner is going to stop the fight, just because of who he is as a fighter.
I think Lomachenko is going to use Nakatani's mistakes to his advantage, consistently. He's slowly going to overwhelm Nakatani, closing in tighter and tighter, working him on the inside. Lomachenko is going to score an emphatic win -- I think it's going to end late, but before the final bell. I'm going to say an 11th- or 12th-round stoppage.