Canelo Alvarez will be looking for his third belt in the super middleweight division when he faces WBO world titlist Billy Joe Saunders on Saturday (DAZN, 8 p.m. ET).
This fight originally was scheduled for May 2020, but the bout was postponed because of the coronavirus pandemic.
Alvarez (55-1-2, 37 KOs), 30, of Guadalajara, Jalisco, Mexico, won the WBA super middleweight title with a third round TKO victory over Rocky Fielding in 2018. After victories at middleweight and light heavyweight in 2019, Alvarez returned to the 168-pound division and collected the vacant WBC belt by defeating Callum Smith by unanimous decision in December. He made a successful defense of the titles in a third-round TKO victory over mandatory challenger Avni Yildirim in February.
Saunders (30-0, 14 KOs), 31, of Hertfordshire, England, is making the third defense of the belt he won in a unanimous decision victory over Shefat Isufi in 2019. Since then he has beaten Marcelo Coceres in 2019, and most recently, Martin Murray in December.
While Alvarez is a -800 favorite according to the William Hill Sports Book, Saunders is unbeaten and has some of the skills that have troubled Alvarez in past fights against similar opponents.
Former two-division champion and International Boxing Hall of Fame inductee Andre Ward breaks down the fight in 12 categories and provides a glimpse into who may have the advantages in this unification bout.
Round 1: Power
I won't waste a lot of time and words trying to explain how Alvarez possesses more natural punching power than Saunders. Alvarez just does. Saunders has a solid punch that can hurt Alvarez if landed at the right time and in the right spot.
Saunders is a good boxer with good leg movement which can prove problematic for Alvarez, who will have to try to land some of his signature shots against a moving target. If Alvarez does land, how will Saunders take the shot? How will Alvarez deal with the boxing ability of Saunders? Movement has given Canelo trouble throughout his career, even if the trouble only lasted a few rounds.
Advantage: Alvarez
Round 2: Speed
Speed is not always an easy thing to compare between two fighters. There is also a difference between "speed" (how fast a fighter can throw a punch) and "quickness" (how quickly a fighter can get to the target with the most efficient movement as possible). I think Saunders edges Alvarez in both categories. Alvarez is not slow, but his first thought is always landing with power. Saunders is a pure boxer who relies on his speed and quickness to outclass and outbox the majority of his opponents.
Advantage: Saunders
Round 3: Offense
Both fighters in this matchup have eye-catching offense when they are at their best. All things being equal, I have to go with Alvarez. He has a better repertoire, a flashier offense and his punches land with more force. That being said, Saunders is quite good when he's in a groove. Close round.
Advantage: Alvarez
Round 4: Defense
Ahhh, one of my favorite topics to discuss: defense. The thing that will allow you to have a long career and leave the sport with your faculties intact. My kind of party.
Both Alvarez and Saunders have good defense. Alvarez's best defense is from the waist up -- good head movement and timing to avoid incoming punches. Saunders likes to use his legs, distance and range to avoid punches.
When I think about Alvarez, the first thing that jumps out to me is his offensive prowess, not his defense. When I think of Saunders and his style, the first thought I have is about his movement and ability to make opponent's hit air.
Advantage: Saunders
Round 5: Technique
Technique is something that has to be honed day in and day out in a boxing gym, far away from the bright lights of fight night. This too is a close category. Both fighters have good technique. Both fighters are well schooled. Both can also be a little "leaky" at times. Alvarez has a tendency to leave his chin in the air when throwing big shots and be a little wide with his punches. Saunders can also be a little lazy with his offense and defense at times. Alvarez takes this one.
Advantage: Alvarez
Round 6: Experience
This is not a hard round to assess: Alvarez is by far the more experienced fighter, both in terms of years fought and by championship experience. This will no doubt serve Alvarez well in this fight. Saunders is a two-time, two-division world champion. He's not a novice, but his championship experience pales in comparison to Alvarez's and the experience level he brings to the table.
Advantage: Alvarez
Round 7: Versatility
A fighter cannot truly show his versatility until he is in a position where he has to show it. How will you know what kind of chin a fighter has until they are forced to show it?
A "puncher" may never show their boxing ability until they absolutely need it. Alvarez has had more opportunities to show his versatility based on some of the fighters he's faced -- inside fighting, boxing from the outside, as well as his ability to power box.
Being in range to be hit, yet avoiding punches, and applying pressure all at the same time is something Alvarez does very well. I've seen Saunders box and I've seen him have to rumble in spots in certain fights. But can he fight inside (long enough to get respect) and box from the outside (long enough to dictate the pace and control distance and range) for an entire fight, against a fighter like Alvarez? Not quite.
Advantage: Alvarez
Round 8: Durability
You measure all fighters and all things pertaining to a fighter (heart, chin, durability, etc.) by how they respond when they face a threat. Let me define "real threat" as an opponent who has the ability to beat you. Alvarez has faced more "real threats" than Saunders. We have more of a sample size with Alvarez and how he's responded when tested. Specifically, Alvarez's two fights with Gennadiy Golovkin. I saw enough there to gauge his durability level. Alvarez has been pressed (outclassed) by boxers, never really by another pressure fighter who hits equally as hard or harder. Saunders has had a few moments in spots where you see his mental toughness but his durability questions will be answered in this fight.
Advantage: Alvarez
Round 9: Tenacity
This is a trait that I love to see fighters display. It's the moment of truth for every fighter. When a fighter meets resistance in the ring, how do they respond? No fighter is exempt from having to show how much tenacity he or she really has. For me, I've seen more "bite-down" from Alvarez than I have Saunders. Saunders has put his head down and continues to fight, but he has to show it against the best competition he can fight. Against Alvarez it will be his opportunity, until then, I give Alvarez the nod in this category.
Advantage: Alvarez
Round 10: Footwork/Ring generalship
Alvarez has good foot movement and good ring generalship when he wants it and needs to use it. To me, it's not very nuanced. There is not a lot of creativity to what I see from Alvarez from a movement standpoint.
When I watch Saunders, I see more creativity and nuance. The reason for this is because Saunders has been forced to rely on these attributes over the span of his career, whereas Alvarez has not. Because of his elusive style, Saunders has had to work on, and hone these skills in order to be the fighter he is today. Alvarez has had the luxury of winning in other ways, namely power, so ring generalship and footwork are not always at the top of the list to work on.
Advantage: Saunders
Round 11: Corner/Trainer
Saunders has had several trainers over the years. All of them I'm sure have made some sort of impression on the two-division world champion in order to get him where he is today. But for the biggest fight of his career, Saunders has teamed back up with the Tibbs family. Formerly trained by Jimmy Tibbs, his son, Mark Tibbs, who learned under his father, has now taken over head coaching duties.
Alvarez's trainer, Eddy Reynoso, also came up under his father Chepo Reynoso. Eddy has paid his dues over the years and is now reaping the benefits of his dedication and hard work. He has a strong stable of boxers who are winning and he seems to not only have knowledge of the sweet science, but also the ability to teach the sweet science to his pupils in a way where they can apply it. Alvarez's round for sure.
Advantage: Alvarez
Round 12: Intangibles
These sorts of attributes are seen on the surface, but one has to look a little deeper to recognize the intangibles that make up a great fighter. At first glance one would say Alvarez should win this round, but, let's look at that a little deeper. Similar to our "durability" category, we will only know what sort of intangibles a fighter has when put in a position to show it. In Alvarez's 58 fights, he has only had a handful of "real" moments where he's had to really dig deep to answer the call. I'm not talking about being outboxed or outclassed by a fighter, I'm talking about a moment where you can really be knocked out if you are not careful. A moment where you are fatigued, but you can't give in to fatigue, because you can get knocked out, or beaten badly.
I haven't really seen Saunders in that sort of affair. Typically, the metal Saunders has to show is ability and discipline to outclass an opponent and stick to the game plan in the midst of pressure. So although I've only seen a handful of moments like this from Alvarez in a roughly 60-fight career, I've seen enough to know that he has these qualities in him. I believe Saunders does, too; we just don't know how deep his well runs. Only time will tell.
Advantage: Alvarez