Joseph "JoJo" Diaz Jr. was scheduled to defend his IBF junior lightweight world title against Shavkatdzhon Rakhimov on Saturday in Indio, California, and while the fight will still go on, Diaz lost his belt on the scales on Friday. Only Rakhimov will be in line to win the belt, if he scores a win against Diaz, who won the belt by defeating Tevin Farmer in January 2020.
Rakhimov (15-0, 12 KOs) is a heavy-punching southpaw making his U.S. debut. He has great footwork and can close the distance quickly to land his combinations and powerful left hand.
Diaz (31-1, 15 KOs), a southpaw from South El Monte, California, has won five fights in a row since suffering the only defeat of his career, a unanimous decision against Gary Russell Jr. in 2018.
Russell believes Diaz's experience and ability to adapt could be the advantage he needs to defeat Rakhimov.
"I honestly like Diaz, he's a hell of a fighter," Russell said. "Diaz is one of those guys that physically he's always going to be in shape and mentally he's gonna give you everything that he has.
"Diaz has a lot of amateur experience, and as a professional he's now a world champion and competed against a bunch of good guys and that experience matters. I think he'd be able to hold his own against anybody in the division."
ESPN asked a number of boxing experts for their takes on the fight. Here's what they had to say.
Editor's note: Responses have been edited for clarity and brevity.
Timothy Bradley Jr., ESPN boxing analyst, former junior welterweight and welterweight world titlist
How Diaz wins: We often talk about experience and the advantage it gives veteran fighters over younger competition that hasn't been in a big spot against big-time competition. Diaz has been in the title picture for a while, he's been in some big fights and he finally won the belt against Tevin Farmer. He only carries the one loss, which came against Gary Russell Jr., and he fought a lot of solid names on the way up as well.
Diaz is a very technically-savvy fighter in the ring. He has a great left hand, and he varies his combinations as he lands to both the head and the body. He's really good at punching in between his opponents' offensive efforts as well, finding his marks while his opponent is throwing punches.
His tenacity and grit are also strong assets. He was cut badly against Farmer, a big gash over his left eye, and he still fought hard. Going through that type of adversity and coming out on top, unfazed, that's a big advantage going into this fight.
How Rakhimov wins: Diaz is in there against a dangerous guy in Rakhimov. Rakhimov checks a lot of the same boxes as the great Russian fighters we've seen in the past. He's as tough as they come. Rakhimov has a height advantage over Diaz, as well as the reach advantage. Even so, Rakhimov is not someone who simply relies on his reach to create the advantage, as his main goal in every fight is to break his opponent down in order to set up an opening for a knockout.
Rakhimov is relentless. He's a fast starter and he stays in your face from the opening bell. It's going to be interesting to see how quickly Diaz is going to be able to react and adjust to the pace that Rakhimov is going to bring. Diaz isn't a slow starter, per se, but he's more of a technical fighter who tends to sit back, use his jab and look for his opportunities.
Rakhimov is physically strong, he comes forward, uses really good angles, especially on the inside. He's a combination guy as well, so he's always looking to take risks to land his left hand, which is very powerful. This is a guy with 15 pro wins and 12 knockouts. He doesn't have the experience that Diaz has in terms of fighting really good competition, but he does have some impressive notches on his belt in terms of the fights that he's won and how he's done it.
Like Diaz, Rakhimov is a southpaw, but that's not likely to be as big a problem as it might be for other fighters because Diaz's last three fights have all been against southpaws.
X-factor: Rakhimov isn't going to give Diaz much time to think. Diaz is going to have to be able to react and respond quickly. The best way for Diaz to do that is to go down to the body.
Rakhimov doesn't go down to the body very often, and that could ultimately be his downfall in this fight.
One other thing to keep an eye on: both fighters have been off for over a year. We haven't seen Diaz since he fought Farmer in January 2020. For Rakhimov, it's been even longer -- September 2019 was the last time he was in the ring.
Prediction: The first six rounds of this fight are going to be very interesting, and it's going to be a major test to see if Diaz is going to be able to keep up with the fast pace that Rakhimov is going to bring. If he weathers that storm, I think the later rounds will favor the fighter with more experience, Diaz, and he can win on the cards.
Diaz has to be very careful and pick his spots wisely in the early rounds. I don't know how Rakhimov's conditioning is going to be in the later rounds, so if Diaz can dig down to the body early and slow Rakhimov down, I think that's going to make it harder for Rakhimov to utilize that power and create opportunities to land big power punches late.
I wouldn't be too surprised if there was an upset and Rakhimov walks out with a KO victory. But I am ultimately going to pick Diaz in this fight, for a couple of key reasons. Going to the body is going to pay off as the fight goes on, and in general, Diaz is more defensively sound. He can hit, he can take a punch and he'll keep on moving.
Don't be surprised when all is said and done if this fight is up there in terms of fight of the year consideration, because of what both guys bring to the table and the stylistic matchup between them. Despite their differences, they both come to fight every time out and neither is likely to back down.
Teddy Atlas, ESPN analyst, host of "THE FIGHT with Teddy Atlas" podcast
How Diaz wins: I expect Diaz to be that dependable guy. He's not great at just one thing, but he's a very experienced guy who knows who he is. Diaz's punch stats are always going to be high. He's not going to be an easy guy to outhustle. He's gotta box in a very responsible manner and not have any leakage in any areas. Just box a real steady, reliable fight and do all the things that he technically brings to the table -- use his jab, move, be in and out, not laying right in front of Rakhimov, not getting greedy. When you're a fighter like Diaz who likes to be busy, sometimes you're tempted to throw that extra punch. In this fight, he and his team need to know -- and I'm sure they do -- when enough is enough, and what "enough" is.
How Rakhimov wins: Rakhimov is stronger. He's a guy that will have to use that advantage, bring that trait to the forefront. I think going to the body of Diaz will be one way to bring that physical strength and to take away Diaz's legs that he utilizes going in and out. When you want to take advantage of being the stronger guy, you want to impose yourself physically and of course, you're always looking to impose yourself mentally. But when you're looking to impose yourself physically, one of the best ways to do it is to go to the body. Put water in the basement. I would look for Rakhimov to understand that, to understand the need to do that, understand his advantage in those physical areas.
X-factor: Maybe the biggest X-factor is experience. The champion, Diaz, has fought better fighters. His one loss is to a top guy, a real good boxer, Gary Russell Jr. That's one place he has an advantage. He has fought the better opposition. He beat Andrew Cancio earlier in his career, who of course went on to be a world champion. What does that mean? It means he's had questions asked in his career already and he's had to have the answers, where Rakhimov really has not yet. That's important for a guy going into this level. Knowing you've been in those waters, knowing what you can expect for yourself -- up until that point, you think you know what you can expect from yourself, but there's nothing quite like knowing.
Prediction: I hate to go against Diaz. He's an honest fighter. He gives you an honest day's work. But I think I'm going with Rakhimov grabbing the title. I think cuts could be involved in the fight.
Al Bernstein, Showtime analyst, member of the International Boxing Hall of Fame
How Diaz wins: He's like everybody right now. He's coming in off a layoff. I think the thing with him is when he's punching in combinations -- that's the key. When he does that, he's an extremely good fighter.
How Rakhimov wins: He moves well. He's good at turning fighters, making them fight at different angles. And I think that's a key thing for him. When you have two lefties against each other, that's an interesting dynamic. But he's a good fighter. Technically solid. He has a really good jab.
X-factor: What's interesting is that they both can be volume punchers. I think the question is, will they try to match each other, in terms of volume? The other thing Rakhimov has is a really good straight hand. So does Diaz, for that matter. To me, they're both really solid fighters. Right handers will sometimes hit Rakhimov with the right hand but I don't know if that translates for Diaz, whether he will hit him with the right hook or not.
Prediction: I think it's going the distance. I think it's going to end up being a very, very close decision. I guess I would lean to Diaz a teency little bit, but just by the smallest of margins.
Gary Russell Jr., WBC featherweight world titlist, defeated Diaz by UD
Diaz is well seasoned as a professional fighter. He's been in there with good fighters, including me, and every time you are in the ring with good opponents, it's a learning experience. JoJo has learned and competed enough to be able to suck up enough information and knowledge to match up with just about any guy in his division.
I honestly like Diaz, we competed before, he's a hell of a fighter. Diaz is one of those guys that physically he's always going to be in shape and mentally he's gonna give you everything that he has.
My fight with him wasn't close. It was a good fight because regardless of what I was doing, and what I was taking away from him and the shots I was hitting him with, he had that fighter's spirit. He never quit, he never gave up on himself and he continued to try.
I can't say how Diaz wins this fight because honestly I haven't seen this other guy fight. I feel he will be able to utilize all of those fights and the information he has gathered to be able to come up with some kind of plan to match his opponent's brain, he has that ability. I think Diaz has enough creativity and enough versatility to be able to make the adjustments and somehow adapt to make the fight easier for himself.