Deontay Wilder enters Saturday's high-stakes rematch with Luis Ortiz with a lot to lose -- and something he thinks he has to prove. In their first fight, back in March 2018, Ortiz had Wilder on the ropes in Round 7, only for Wilder to come back and drop Ortiz twice in the 10th to get a TKO win.
That victory set up a lucrative fight for Wilder, against Tyson Fury in December 2018, and a rematch of that fight is penciled in for February. Even though Wilder is a -700 betting favorite according to Caesars Sportsbook, Ortiz's power and ability to take it to Wilder in the first fight is a big risk to the financial windfall awaiting Wilder should he take care of business.
It's something of an anomaly in modern boxing, but it's a fight Wilder, the WBC heavyweight champion, felt he had to take. How will it play out? Timothy Bradley, a two-division world champion, takes a deep dive into Wilder-Ortiz 2.
This is going to be an entertaining fight. It's a dangerous fight for both guys and shows you the mentality of Deontay Wilder. He wants to be the best, and I can't argue with that. The Fury fight is looming over his head, too.
I love the passion of Wilder. To me, this guy is a modern day George Foreman. Back in the '70s, big George was the hardest-hitting heavyweight, and it took a scientist in Ali to beat him. A couple of other guys were able to outbox him early in his career, but that's what it took.
There's one thing on Wilder's mind every time he's in the ring: destruction. Wilder is a wrecking ball at a construction site. You better get out of the way because he's doing damage. His unorthodox style and power are what make him awkwardly clever. He isn't a really good technical fighter, but his being very unorthodox and very athletic and having that lean physique make him who he is -- and make him dangerous. Having that long physique gives him that whip effect. When he punches, there's a lot of snap on it.
Having the height and having that leverage, he's probably the hardest puncher I've ever seen in boxing history. It's mainly in the right hand -- he knows how to land that shot. A good right hand is a southpaw's nightmare, which is bad news for Ortiz.
Ortiz, on the other hand, is 175 years old. OK, he's 40, but no matter how old he is, he's dangerous for about six rounds. I don't care about his new physique and all the muscles and stuff that he's showing. That's not what it's going to take to beat a guy such as Deontay Wilder. The muscle that he needs to be working on is the brain, and I know the brain is not technically a muscle, but he needs to be smart in this fight.
Wilder is all focus, concentration and destruction. That's the only thing on his mind, and he's going to do whatever he needs to do to make sure that happens. Ortiz needs to be relaxed. He needs to be on point, and he needs to not fall asleep and get lazy.
What is the path to victory for Luis Ortiz?
This is heavyweight boxing. One punch can end the whole night. Yes, Wilder got caught in the seventh round, and he was on weary street, but did you see what happened next? He bounced back. He showed resilience. He showed that he had the mental toughness that it took to be the heavyweight champion of the world.
Ortiz can bank on that. He has a chance because he has power, but he will also have to avoid the tremendous punching power of Deontay Wilder.
Ortiz needs to get a knockout to win because the later the fight goes, the more it's going to favor Wilder. The champion can keep his power all the way through 12 rounds, while Ortiz is going to fade in the second half of the fight.
Ortiz hasn't changed, and this fight is likely going to play out the same way his fights always do. Ortiz starts off really well, then he fades. That's just what he does.
He has done a good job since losing to Wilder, picking up three wins in the interim, but I still see those flaws in him. I still see him fighting at the same pace. I don't see anything that has changed, really, other than the fact that his physique has improved.
Ortiz knows what's at stake on Saturday, and he has become a lot more serious with working out and getting his physique right. His preparation for this fight definitely seems a lot stronger, and he's focused.
It's diminishing for a fighter who hurts a guy and then later in the fight gets knocked out. That tells Ortiz that every second and every minute of every round, it's going to be dangerous. Ortiz knows what he's up against, and he needs to find the knockout if he's going to get the win.
What have we learned about Wilder since the first Ortiz fight?
Wilder, without a doubt, has improved since he faced Ortiz the first time. That Fury fight was a tough one for Wilder, but again, did you see his resilience? Did you see his determination? Did you see him continue to press forward and then find his mark? He didn't get the stoppage, but he was able to put Fury on the ground twice.
There's only one potential problem for Wilder: He has fought one round since the draw with Fury. But Wilder is the type of guy who stays in the gym. He stays on working on his craft, and the last time we saw him, he got rid of Dominic Breazeale with a first-round KO.
Wilder has been working on this technique in which he moves to the left, moves to the right and ends up with a nice, little angle to land his right hand. He knows how to get to land that punch. That's his weapon, and he knows how to get himself in position to line up that right hand.
We saw it in the Fury fight, too, and he was able to land it against Fury. He hit Fury on the side of the ear with the shot and then came around with the left hook.
Wilder just has this ability. He never, ever loses concentration -- for 12 rounds. He's always in the dang fight. I think this time around Wilder understands, from the Fury fight, that he has to get rid of these guys. He cannot carry these guys and leave the decision out of his hands. He has to knock his opponents out -- and he believes he can.
How will it play out?
I'm saying Deontay Wilder, all the way. Wilder with a serious, devastating knockout of Ortiz. He knocked Ortiz out the first time. He's going to knock him out this time, too, and I believe he's going to do it a lot sooner than he did the first time. I'd say this fight goes no more than six rounds.
Wilder believes he can knock anybody out. I think going into this fight, having that type of chip on his shoulder after going through that fight with Fury -- in which he thought he'd won the fight and the fight should have been stopped -- he knows what he has to do.