Canelo Alvarez steps up to the light heavyweight division Saturday in pursuit of Sergey Kovalev's world title. As a middleweight titleholder moving up 15 pounds, ESPN's No. 3 pound-for-pound fighter in the world faces certain risks against a fighter of Kovalev's size and experience, although questions about what kind of fighter Kovalev is at age 36 linger as well.
So what ultimately wins out -- Alvarez's defense and creativity or Kovalev's power?
Let's break it all down, starting with each fighter's most recent bout.
What does the Anthony Yarde fight tell you about the current state of Kovalev?
Yarde is no slouch, let's give him credit. He has a lot of ability, he's strong, has great speed. Kovalev was able to overcome all of that. I can tell you one thing that really stood out to me: When Yarde decided to go down to the body, and started hitting him with some vicious body shots, I saw a different Kovalev.
I saw a Kovalev ready to cough it up. I saw the Kovalev that was in the Andre Ward fight the second time around, when Ward decided to stand up to the bully. I think a fighter like Canelo recognizes that kind of opportunity to go to the body. Canelo has a great ring IQ, and it feels as though he can take advantage of those moments in the ring -- especially because body shots are his specialty, and he can get on the inside and press forward.
He probably feels like, "Hey, I was able to do it against a guy like Gennadiy Golovkin, I should be able to do it against a guy like Kovalev," especially with Kovalev being a little long in the tooth with a lot of miles on the odometer at age 36. Kovalev is on his way out, and he's trying to cash out, right now. So it's a perfect time for Alvarez to step up, even though it is a dangerous challenge because Kovalev can punch.
What does the Daniel Jacobs fight tell you about where Canelo is right now? How much of that translates to light heavyweight?
Jacobs was a younger foe: very athletic, good speed, great ring IQ, and Canelo was able to deal with that. Which was amazing, because I felt as if Jacobs had enough experience to be dangerous in that fight, having fought GGG, and getting a close split decision win over Sergiy Derevyanchenko.
"It's no joke moving up two weight classes. It's going to be a different world for Canelo, honestly." Timothy Bradley Jr.
I felt Jacobs had the goods to put up a great fight and beat a guy like Canelo, even though I picked Canelo to win the fight because, for some reason, Jacobs often seems to lose concentration -- and that's exactly what happened in that fight. He lost his concentration.
What the Jacobs fight showed was that Canelo can adapt to anything.
Andre Ward says Sergey Kovalev is no longer the "Krusher" he used to be, and predicts Canelo Alvarez to beat him via stoppage.
It feels the same way with Canelo going up two weight classes. He feels as if he has enough defense and enough creativity to deal with the punching power, to isolate that, and also get his work in.
It's no joke moving up two weight classes. It's going to be a different world for Canelo, honestly. The punching power at light heavyweight is no joke. But I've always said, when you have a more creative guy against someone who can punch, finesse will beat a puncher.
That's one thing Canelo has going for himself. He has a lot of finesse and a lot of bend and flex in his body. He can make a guy miss, he has great eyes, great feet and he's always getting himself in good position to land his shots. He's a smart fighter.
How can Kovalev win this fight? Where is Canelo vulnerable?
Canelo is vulnerable when you can isolate him on the outside with the jab. We've seen it with GGG, who was able to do that and not allow Canelo to counter-punch or let him get inside and go to the body, because that's his thing. When Canelo gets to your body, he gets you to bring your hands down, and from there he'll be looking for a big left hook or overhand rights. So if he can isolate on the outside with the jab and not allow Canelo to get down to the body on the inside, Kovalev has a chance of winning this fight.
For Kovalev to win, he has to do it behind his jab. His jab is phenomenal, the thing has a mind of it own. Kovalev is going to have to isolate Canelo from a distance, keep him off-balance, keep him from getting in close and start setting up his own body shots. But that's the thing with a lot of these fighters from Russia and Eastern Europe -- they don't typically get down to the body, and that's exactly the way to break guys down.
The other thing that I see with Canelo is that typically -- and the fight fans see it, too -- for some reason he has a tendency to fade in the second half of fights. He doesn't have that third gear, and that has been the biggest criticism of him during his career -- that he's not a great finisher. If Kovalev can hang in there, he might find more opportunities in the later rounds.
How does Canelo win the fight? Where is Kovalev vulnerable?
To me, if Canelo wants to get the fan base to really appreciate what he's doing -- he needs the knockout. He needs to stop him, not just win. If he can stop Kovalev, that's the statement, right there.
The key is the body -- if you bully the bully, the bully will fold. And that's Kovalev's M.O. Ward put the blueprint out for everybody in their second fight, when he decided, "Y'know what? I'm going to stand up to this guy, I'm going to take his best and I'm going to dish out mine," and Ward was able to stop Kovalev in the eighth round.
Canelo knows that instinctively. If he goes to the body of Kovalev, it's over.
If Kovalev wins, what's next?
Rematch.
How much risk is Canelo taking on to win a world title in another division?
At this weight class there are some monsters. Canelo's daring to be great, and I respect that about him. It's a calculated risk, but still a risk -- one punch can end it all. That's the thing, with Kovalev, every shot is hard. This guy has some heavy hands, anybody that gets in the ring with him, he hits them, he hurts them. So it's still a lot of risk, and as you get older, the last thing to go is the punching power -- you don't ever lose it. You can be 80 years old, you'll still be able to crack, you'll still be able to knock out a mule.
How do you see the fight playing out?
In the beginning I see Kovalev coming out trying to establish himself as the boss, showing what he has learned by being in this weight class his whole career. I feel as if he's going to be using his jab to keep the smaller man off of him. I think Canelo will struggle in the beginning, but he'll eventually figure out a way to get inside, he'll figure out a way to land his counter-punches and get his body attack working.
Defense is going to be key in this fight for Canelo, and the defense will eventually set up his offense and timing. The ring IQ will kick in, as Kovalev's does the same thing over and over and over -- jab, jab, jab, 1-2, right hand. Eventually Canelo is going to figure that out.
In the second half of the fight, I see Canelo stepping forward, landing hard, vicious body shots and then eventually stopping Kovalev.