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Did the Packers start winning out just in time or a week too late?

ESPN Analytics

The Green Bay Packers are 3-0 since Aaron Rodgers said, “I feel like we can run the table, I really do.”

At the time, the Packers were 4-6, and ESPN’s Football Power Index gave them an 11 percent chance to make the playoffs. They were ranked 24th in ESPN’s power rankings heading into Week 12.

After a three-game winning streak, Rodgers and the Packers are still outside the playoff picture looking in, but their FPI playoff odds have more than tripled to 38 percent, and they are just outside the top 10 in this week's power rankings.

The Packers have moved up eight spots to No. 4 in FPI, and are favored in all three of their remaining games, with a 23 percent chance to win out, according to FPI.

In the FPI simulations where it does run the table, Green Bay has a 99.7 percent chance of making the postseason. It would need to win out but lose the division and have quite a few wild-card scenarios not break in their favor in order to not make the playoffs in that scenario.

So the Packers almost control their own destiny. If Rodgers continues to play the way he has and the defense stays healthy, winning out should mean more than one game for Green Bay in January.

Rodgers great all year

For a stretch there were those wondering “What’s wrong with Aaron Rodgers?” The answer has since been revealed to be nothing.

Rodgers has posted a Total QBR of 70 or better in nine games this season, tied for most in the NFL. The only seasons he had more such games were 2011 (13) and 2014 (12), his MVP seasons.

He has thrown multiple touchdown passes in eight straight games, the second-longest streak of his career (13 straight in 2011). Rodgers’ 32 passing touchdowns are already more than he had all last season (31).

Rodgers enters Week 15 with a QBR of 77, which would rank as the third-highest QBR of his career, once again trailing only his MVP seasons.

Rodgers has been even better during the Packers’ three-game winning streak. He’s completing 74 percent of his passes with seven touchdowns, no interceptions and an 89 QBR during the streak.

Short passes have been Rodgers’ specialty lately. He has completed 57-of-61 passes that were intended for a receiver within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage since the start of Week 12 (excludes throwaways).

Rodgers’ completion percentage of 93 percent on those throws is by far the best in the NFL over the last three weeks.

The Packers are 0-4 this season when Rodgers does not post a QBR of 70 or better, which means that when Rodgers isn’t great, the Packers don’t win.

Luckily for Rodgers, help has arrived.

Defense shaping up

Injuries marred the Packers’ defense for a good chunk of the season, but that unit is getting healthy again and it shows.

Green Bay has allowed 13 or fewer points in three straight games after allowing 30 or more points in four straight. They have eight takeaways and nine sacks in their last three games.

Clay Matthews has played each of the last four games despite dealing with nagging injuries. The Packers have generated pressure on 39 percent of dropbacks during this recent stretch, which includes 47 percent of the time when Matthews is part of the pass rush.

The Packers started five defensive backs in Week 1 -- Sam Shields, Damarious Randall, Quinten Rollins, Morgan Burnett and Ha Ha Clinton-Dix. Shields was placed on IR after Week 1, and Randall and Rollins have missed time throughout the season. Randall and Rollins have each been in the lineup the past three weeks.

Green Bay’s pass defense has been far better, with four of its original starters on field this season. It has as many interceptions as touchdowns allowed (six) with four or more of the original starters on the field. The ratio is 19 touchdowns to seven interceptions with three or fewer on the field.