It’s crowded atop the AFC West standings.
After dramatic wins by the Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos Sunday, three of the four teams in the division have seven wins through Week 10. It’s the first division to do that since the AFC East in 1999, according to Elias Sports Bureau research.
The Broncos and Chiefs, along with the Oakland Raiders, come in at Nos. 4, 5 and 6 in this week’s ESPN NFL power rankings, respectively. No other division has more than two teams in the top 10 of this week’s rankings.
All three teams have at least a 75 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), but the Chiefs appear to be the team to beat. They have the best odds to win the AFC West at 44 percent.
Chiefs on a roll
The 7-2 Chiefs have won five straight games, the second-longest active streak in the NFL (Dallas Cowboys, eight games) and Kansas City’s longest win streak since ... last season. The Chiefs also won their final 10 regular-season games of 2015 and are one of two teams to have a five-game win streak in each of the past two seasons (Minnesota Vikings).
Kansas City has the highest win percentage in the NFL since Week 7 of 2015 (.895). Their 17 wins are three more than the next-closest teams (New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks).
According to Elias Sports Bureau research, a Chiefs win on Sunday would match the best 20-game stretch in franchise history. They had an 18-2 stretch from 1968-69, and the 1969 season culminated with the Chiefs winning the Super Bowl. In the past five seasons, only the Broncos in 2012-13 and the Carolina Panthers in 2014-15 had better 20-game stretches (both 19-1).
The Chiefs hope their momentum carries them to their first division title since 2010. However, they have the fourth-toughest remaining strength of schedule in the league. After hosting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 11, each of their next five opponents currently have a winning record.
Derek Carr for MVP?
The 7-2 Raiders are off to their best start since 2001 (also 7-2) and are looking to both make the playoffs and win the division for the first time since 2002. Oakland is led by Derek Carr, who has been at his best when it matters most.
Carr has the most touchdown passes with the score within eight points in the second half this season, with 11. His Total QBR in the final five minutes of regulation is 95, the best in the NFL.
The third-year quarterback has also had to overcome Oakland’s poor defense and severe penalty problems. Oakland has allowed 398 yards per game, fifth-most in the league and would be the most allowed in franchise history. The Raiders have been outgained in yards in four of their seven wins.
Oakland has committed a league-high 111 penalties, 16 more than any other team. The Raiders have committed 16 penalties in a game three times this season, winning all three. The rest of the NFL has seven such games, and teams are 2-4-1 in those games.
Next up for Carr and the Raiders are the 6-3 Houston Texans on Monday Night Football in Mexico City. Carr is 3-0 in primetime games, including the Week 9 win against the Broncos. FPI gives Oakland a 63 percent chance to beat Houston.
Can the Broncos’ offense step up?
While the Broncos still have one of the NFL’s best defenses, the offense has struggled to get going this season, especially since Trevor Siemian returned from a shoulder injury in Week 6. Denver has failed to gain a first down on an NFL-worst 40 percent of drives this season, including 45 percent in their last 5 games.
Siemian may be 7-2 as a starter, but he has not looked the same since returning. Only Ryan Fitzpatrick and Colin Kaepernick have worse completion percentages since Week 6 among qualified quarterbacks. Siemian’s QBR of 53 ranks 24th in the NFL during that span.
The Broncos are 7-0 this season when they score at least 21 points, and 0-3 when they do not. Unfortunately for Denver, three of its next five games are against teams that allow fewer than 21 points per game (Chiefs twice, Patriots).
The Broncos have the toughest remaining strength of schedule in the NFL.