Matthew Stafford and the Detroit Lions are off to one of the more improbable 5-4 starts in recent history.

Detroit and the 0-9 Cleveland Browns are the only teams that have trailed in the fourth quarter in every game this season. Stafford’s five game-winning drives in the fourth quarter or overtime this season lead the NFL.

The late-game heroics by players like Stafford, Matt Prater, Anquan Boldin and Golden Tate have propelled the Lions from No. 21 last week to No. 14 this week in ESPN’s NFL power rankings. The seven-spot jump was the second largest of Week 10 behind the New York Giants (11 spots).

In order to stay above .500 and be considered a playoff contender, the Lions have needed Stafford to do the improbable and play like a top-10 (or even top-five) quarterback.

Working miracles

According to Elias Sports Bureau research, the Lions are the third team in NFL history to have five game-winning scores in the final two minutes of the fourth quarter or overtime within their first nine games of a season. The others to do that were the 2003 Carolina Panthers and the 2004 Jacksonville Jaguars.

Detroit has been testing the limits of how far down they can get without being completely out. In their Week 1 win in Indianapolis, Detroit’s in-game win probability bottomed out at 17 percent. Prater’s 43-yard field goal with 4 seconds remaining capped off an improbable win, but hardly the Lions’ most dramatic win this season.

The Lions’ win probability fell below one-tenth of a percentage point Sunday after Rhett Ellison scored a go-ahead touchdown for the Minnesota Vikings with 23 seconds remaining.

After two completed passes, a game-tying 58-yard field goal and a tackle-breaking, game-winning score by Golden Tate in overtime, the Lions had one of the most improbable wins in recent history.

Entering Sunday, teams that were down exactly three points with 30 seconds or less in the fourth quarter and the ball inside their own 30 were 0-98 since 2001.

Make that 1-98.

Is Stafford a top-five quarterback?

Stafford’s play over the last year has earned him a spot in the discussion for top-10 or even top-five quarterbacks in the NFL. He ranks sixth in Total QBR this season.

Since Jim Bob Cooter took over as offensive coordinator of the Lions in Week 8 of the 2015 season, Stafford ranks fifth in completion percentage (68 percent), second in touchdown passes (38) and fifth in touchdown-to-interception ratio (4.2-to-1) among 35 qualified quarterbacks.

Stafford’s average pass during that time traveled 6.4 yards past the line of scrimmage, the second-shortest average in the NFL behind Teddy Bridgewater (6.0). Prior to Week 8 of last season, Stafford’s average throw went 8.0 yards downfield.

The shorter passes have helped Stafford cut down on his off-target throws. He over- or under-threw receivers on 20 percent of his career pass attempts before Week 8 of 2015. Since then Stafford has thrown off target on less than 14 percent of his passes, which ranks fifth in the NFL. He has cut his interception rate in half over that span.

Stafford’s receivers are doing the rest of the work for him. Despite a 1.6-yard drop off in air yards per pass attempt, Stafford’s overall yards-per-attempt average has improved by 0.4 since Cooter began calling plays.

Lions receivers have gained 2,679 yards after the catch on Stafford’s passes since Week 8 of 2015, 200 more yards than any other quarterback in the NFL.