The New England Patriots fell from No. 1 in ESPN’s post-draft Power Rankings in May to No. 3 in this week’s preseason rankings, behind the Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals.
In this week’s piece, we make note of what many expect New England to do -- start 2-2 or worse before making a run with Tom Brady back under center:
The Patriots started 2-2 or worse in three of their four Super Bowl-winning seasons, so forgive our voters for not overreacting to Tom Brady's four-game suspension being upheld. The Pats are still the team to beat in the AFC.
But the idea that the Patriots are a slow-starting team is a myth, even when looking at the one season they were without Brady early on.
Early-season dominance
New England has a 42-14 record (.750) in the first four games of seasons since 2002, best in the NFL.
The 2-2 starts have been the exception, not the rule. They have 10 starts of 3-1 or better since the start of the 2002 season, tied with the Denver Broncos for most in the league during that span.
New England’s winning percentage by game number in seasons does not change much when looking at the schedule in four-game spans. They have a .763 win percentage since the start of the 2002 season and no four-game stretch is more than 50 points higher or lower than that overall mark.
The dominance is even more impressive when looking at their early-season point margins.
New England has averaged an NFL-best 27.0 points per game in their first four games of seasons since the start of 2002. They have allowed 19.6 points per game early in seasons over that same span, which trails only the Baltimore Ravens (18.1), Broncos (18.9) and Pittsburgh Steelers (19.4) in the AFC.
The Patriots’ plus-7.4 points per game margin through four games in seasons since 2002 is 1.4 points per game better than anyone else's during that span.
Last season the Patriots outscored opponents by 18.3 points per game in their 4-0 start, the second-best mark in the league behind the Cardinals at 18.8 points per game.
What about 2008?
The 2008 season presents the closest comparison to what 2016 might look like early on for the Patriots. Brady only played 15 snaps before missing the rest of the season with a knee injury.
New England went 3-1 in its first four games, which matches its .750 winning percentage from its first four games of all other seasons from 2002-15.
Matt Cassel's numbers were around the league average during that 3-1 start. He completed a high percentage of passes (67 percent), had an even touchdown-to-interception ratio (three of each) and a Total QBR (54) that ranked 15th out of 31 qualified quarterbacks through Week 5.
If Jimmy Garoppolo can be a league-average quarterback against the Cardinals, Miami Dolphins, Houston Texans and Buffalo Bills, maybe 3-1 should be the expectation in New England, not 2-2 or worse.