I don’t know that I’ve ever spent more time on a scouting report than I did with Johnny Manziel’s this offseason. (His, Cam Newton’s and Tim Tebow’s are among the longest I’ve ever written.) I wound up watching 10 of his game tapes from this season (Sam Houston State, SMU and UTEP games were the only omissions), in addition to six from 2012, and spent way more time than normal looking at his NFL comparisons, studying his background by talking to scouts, coaches and players, and rewriting and condensing the report.
It is difficult to explain Manziel’s unique strengths and weaknesses. He is the face of this year’s draft class for a reason, and not just because of the fascination many have had with his life off the field. It’s unusual for there to be such a wide range of opinions about one player. When I talk to people in the league, some love him and some wouldn’t even think about drafting him in the first round.
Ahead of his pro day on March 27, I decided to break out the scouting report (which you can find in its entirety in our Draft Tracker) and go section by section on how he grades out in the traits I evaluate for every QB prospect, along with my conclusion at the end.
Note: Each category is graded on a 1-5 scale, with 1 being exceptional, 2 being above average, 3 being average, 4 being below average and 5 being marginal.
Mental Makeup: 3
“Approaches game with Brett Favre-like mentality. No stage is too big. Plays biggest in big games, but his competitiveness has no governor. Shows up to play every game day (regardless of opponent). No questioning his mental and physical toughness. Poise and field vision while in chaos are unique traits. Knack for delivering on third downs. Fast eyes and natural instincts but does not go through progression reads naturally. Has a gambler's mentality as a decision-maker. Blatantly passes on wide-open targets underneath in favor of extending the play for a bigger opportunity. Makes more critical errors as a decision-maker (throwing across field, throwing passes up for grabs, ignoring checkdowns, etc.) than any QB we've ever stamped with a first-round grade. Must also learn to beat blitz with mind/arm rather than relying on feet.”
Accuracy: 3
“Small minority of QBs complete higher percentage of short-to-intermediate throws when footwork is out of whack. Most accurate on in-breaking routes (digs, deep-ins, posts, hooks, crossers). Also more accurate than most throwing on run, especially delivering off-balance and from unusual arm slots. But not likely to sustain NFL success until consistency of ball placement from inside pocket improves on all three levels -- and that will require greater discipline with lower-body mechanics. Has developed bad habits on vertical throws (and fades) of either throwing off back foot (with no weight transfer in follow-through) or opening wide and falling away, which leads to ball sailing and/or accuracy issues. Also, too many throws on out-breaking routes are off-target (or misses within strike zone, limiting yards after catch).”
Release/Arm Strength: 2
“Excellent release quickness. When he generates quality hip rotation via proper lower-body mechanics, ball velocity is good. Also flashes ability to snap ball off with wrist from all sorts of different off-balance release points. Only time he gets in trouble with arm strength is when he fails to transfer weight from back to front (happens most often on vertical touch throws, which leads to ball dying on descent).”
Pocket Mobility: 1
“Unique trait is ability to improvise (as a runner and thrower on the run). Rare instincts and escape ability. Not as fast as Robert Griffin III or Russell Wilson but more elusive and athletic than both. Underrated poise in pocket. Shows no fear staring down gun barrel of the pass rush. Elite running threat with good top-end speed and outstanding vision, agility and elusiveness. While poised and shows no fear hanging in pocket, he's frequently impatient. See too many times on tape where he fails to locate open targets because he bailed from pocket rather than climbing/sliding and resetting feet. Most important adjustment he must make in NFL is to slide. Odds of remaining durable are stacked against him if he continues to expose undersized frame as frequently as he did in college.”
Bottom line
I have Manziel ranked as the No. 3 quarterback in this class, behind UCF’s Blake Bortles and Louisville’s Teddy Bridgewater, and No. 21 prospect overall. The 90 grade I’ve given him qualifies as a late-first-round grade and is a few notches below Bortles (93) and Bridgewater (92) and several notches below the top three overall talents in this draft: Jadeveon Clowney (97), Greg Robinson (97) and Khalil Mack (96).
If a team is considering taking Manziel with a first-round pick, particularly near the top of the draft with five of the teams drafting in the top eight having a need at quarterback, the general manager, head coach and offensive coaching staff all have to be on board with taking him. They have to be legitimate believers to the point that they’re all willing to fall on the sword if Manziel fails.
In particular, the coaches must have a plan to develop him, from improving his mechanics (continuing what’s worked for Manziel with his private QB coach George Whitfield) to tweaking the playbook to maximize his improvisation skills and adjust to his unique methods of approaching progression reads to creating a detailed schedule for what hours he needs to be in the building during the season and offseason. And everybody needs to be convinced that Manziel will get on board with said plan.
Simply put, it will be a gutsy pick taking Manziel in the first round. Even though there are several positives to his game, as I’ve written above, drafting him requires a big-time leap of faith, as it could make or break a coaching staff and a GM as it pertains to their jobs.