Here are the thoughts, unsolicited, of one NBA assistant who’s watched Derrick Rose regularly throughout his career:
“The people who want to tell you he’s done have no idea what they’re talking about. He still has plenty left. If he stays healthy, New York is going to love him,” the assistant said weeks before Rose’s debut with the New York Knicks.
In a perfect world for Phil Jackson and the Knicks, the assistant coach speaking above is proven correct. That means Rose plays well enough to lead New York back to the playoffs for the first time in three seasons, endearing himself to one of the NBA’s most ardent fan bases along the way.
Rose has played just four games for the Knicks, so it’s too early in the season to draw any distinct conclusions on Rose's impact. But a few interesting trends have emerged early in the season.
And with Rose set to play in Chicago on Friday (8 p.m. ET on ESPN) for the first time as a visitor, it’s a good time to take a look at those trends:
Pick-and-roll play: Rose is running fewer pick-and-rolls so far with the Knicks -- by a pretty wide margin.
Per NBA.com/Stats, Rose is finishing 29 percent of plays as the pick-and-roll ball handler this season. Rose finished 43 percent of his plays last season as a pick-and-roll ball handler in Chicago.
This is significant because Rose late last month cited fewer pick-and-roll opportunities as one of the biggest differences between the Knicks' and Bulls' offenses -- and probably one of the top adjustments he’ll have to make as a Knick.
Head coach Jeff Hornacek’s offense certainly uses the pick-and-roll but also implements aspects of the triangle offense, which Rose and others have said is difficult to learn. Rose is committed to thriving in the system, however.
"I got to find a way, and I'm going to find a way," Rose said of the triangle. "That's what being great is all about."
Many modern NBA offenses rely heavily on the pick-and-roll. The triangle does not. The Knicks have ranked in the bottom 10 in the NBA in pick-and-roll usage over the past two seasons. The Knicks use pick-and-rolls in Hornacek’s offense, but the coach has made it clear that he won’t be overly reliant on them.
“If you’re just doing pick-and-rolls the whole game, yeah, you’re going to score some points. But you’re not going to put any pressure on the defense, necessarily,” Hornacek says. “You’re getting forced to take tough shots.”
Through four games, the Knicks rank 24th in plays finished by the pick-and-roll ball handler and last in plays finished by the roll man, per NBA.com.
Drives to the basket: One area in which Rose has made an impact is getting into the lane. He’s averaging nine drives to the basket per game this season, which is more than the combined per-game averages of former Knicks Jose Calderon, Arron Afflalo and Jerian Grant in 2015-16, per NBA.com/Stats.
Rose is shooting 61.5 percent on those drives, an increase from the 51 percent last season. This was a point of emphasis during his offseason work with trainer Rob McClanaghan.
“We worked on everything we’ve always worked on since he was 18 years old -– mid-range pull-up, finishing at the rim, in-between stuff, then we threw in post work and some off-the-ball work because he may not have the ball in his hands as much this year,” McClanaghan said recently.
Passing: Rose’s early passing numbers are troubling for a club that wants to create easy shots for Carmelo Anthony and Kristaps Porzingis. Rose's assist ratio -- the percentage of assists a player makes compared to his overall possessions -- is 14.3, per NBA.com/Stats, and ranks 22nd among point guards who have played at least 25 minutes per game.
Rose is averaging just 2.5 assists per game, something Hornacek and the Knicks would like to see increase significantly.
“There will be times when we want him to [get a shot at the rim], and other times where we want him to use that explosiveness to get by people and create plays,” Hornacek said. “We want him to be able to use that ability and if it can get us seven, eight assists a game.”
What about the other side of the floor? Advanced numbers show that Rose’s defense was subpar last season. ESPN’s Real Plus-Minus rating showed Rose to be the fourth-worst defensive point guard in the league. This season in New York, the Knicks are allowing 112 points per 100 possessions with Rose on the floor, 10 more than when he's on the bench.
The club hopes Courtney Lee can help Rose on the perimeter and Joakim Noah and Porzingis can help clean up mistakes inside. But so far, the Knicks’ defense has been a mess. New York ranks 26th in defensive efficiency.
Rose is entering the final year of his contract, so he has plenty to play for this season. Jackson also has plenty on the line this season in his third full season as team president, and his reputation as an executive will be shaped in some ways by Rose’s play.
There's plenty at stake for all parties involved, but the assistant whose watched Rose closely for much of his career believes things will work out just fine for him and the Knicks.
“Just watch,” he said. “New York is going to fall in love.”
Time will tell if New York falls in love, or just falls.