We continue our recruit and return series with the Duke Blue Devils, whose season ended Thursday with a loss to Oregon in the Sweet 16. A look at what the 2016-17 season could hold:
Possible 2016-17 starting five (statistics reflect regular season average)
G: Derryck Thornton (7.5 PPG, 2.5 APG)
G: Luke Kennard (11.9 PPG, 3.2 RPG)
F: Grayson Allen (21.6 PPG, 4.5 RPG)
F: Jayson Tatum (incoming freshman)
F: Harry Giles (incoming freshman)
Who is lost: The only certain departure for the Blue Devils is big man Marshall Plumlee (8.2 PPG, 8.6 RPG), who saw his numbers swell from 10 minutes per game a junior to more than 30 as a senior, partially due to injuries and partially due to the slow development of five-star recruit Chase Jeter (1.9 PPG, 1.9 RPG). Plumlee will not be remembered as Duke’s most spectacular player (or even its most spectacular Plumlee), but his steadying presence was crucial for a team that had some issues in the paint. Nearly as certain to go is forward Brandon Ingram (16.8 PPG, 6.8 RPG), who lived up to the hype in what will likely be his one season in Durham and is currently ranked No. 2 in Chad Ford’s top 100 NBA prospects, behind only Ben Simmons. Amile Jefferson (11.4 PPG, 10.3 RPG), who was lost for the season in December with a foot problem, was scheduled to depart but could return if granted a medical redshirt. Another possibility to depart is Grayson Allen, who took over the role of Duke’s No. 1 offensive option in 2015-16 and is currently No. 27 in Ford’s rankings. Given who the Blue Devils have coming in, it would be hard to imagine Allen’s stock getting higher than it is now.
Who is added: A star-studded class will make its way to Durham, led by the top two prospects in the 2016 class. Harry Giles, a 6-9 forward from Winston-Salem, North Carolina and Jayson Tatum, a 6-9 wing from Saint Louis, are both one-and-done candidates who will allow Duke to set the bar at “national title.” Giles, who has a history of knee injuries, tore his right ACL in November and missed his high school season but is expected to be ready to go in the fall. Frank Jackson, a 6-4 combo guard out of the state of Utah, rounds out the trio of incoming five-stars. Power forward Javin DeLaurier is a four-star who projects as a four-year player for the Blue Devils, and will likely be a role player in 2016-17 -- especially if Jefferson returns and Jeter develops. The mystery man of the group is 6-foot-7, 225-pound Australian forward Jack White, who committed in early March. White averaged 8.3 points and 3.9 rebounds per game at the U19 world championships last year.
What it means for next season: Duke is looking at an embarrassment of riches for 2016-17, and expectations are going to be sky-high for Mike Krzyzewski’s 36th group of Blue Devils. It will be worth watching how Coach K and staff manage the minutes -- this program is about to go from having very little depth to almost having too much, especially if Allen and Jefferson both come back. How players such as Matt Jones (10.8 PPG) might be impacted by the presence of the new blood is among the questions. Whether a player such as Jeter, who came in with high expectations, can develop enough to crack this lineup remains to be seen. But these are good problems to have for one of college basketball’s blue blood programs.