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Wiggins the No. 1 pick? Not so fast

While many believe Andrew Wiggins will be the 2014 NBA draft's top selection, others aren't too sure. AP Photo/Bill Shettle

I took a six-day trip last week to catch six of the top programs in America. I was also able to see six of the top 18 players on Chad Ford's most recent Top 100 draft board. I caught the Kansas freshman trio of Andrew Wiggins, Joel Embiid and Wayne Selden, got a look at Oklahoma State guard Marcus Smart's development and also watched guys like Glenn Robinson III, Montrezl Harrell, Adreian Payne and Noah Vonleh. Both Mitch McGary (back) and Gary Harris (ankle) were injured and did not practice.

We'll start with the guy who ranks atop most draft boards -- Andrew Wiggins.


LAWRENCE, Kan. -- Andrew Wiggins will be a very good NBA player someday, but he's a long ways away. It's completely unfair to put the supposed prize of the 2014 NBA draft class in the same sentence as LeBron James, Kobe Bryant or Kevin Durant.

During one three-hour practice, Wiggins misfired on jumper after jumper, took plays off and was practically invisible. Sure, he showed glimpses of the athleticism that have some putting him in elite company with NBA superstars. He's been blessed with incredible talent -- the length, quickness and athleticism that few possess even at the NBA level.

But Wiggins eventually blended in during the practice last week. It wasn't the first time he's disappeared. In fact, Kansas coaches maintain that the 6-foot-8 Canadian has yet to be the best player on the floor in any of their practices thus far. To take it one step further, he's rarely even one of the best two or three players on the floor.

"I want to get him to start playing hard all the time and also playing to his athletic ability," Kansas coach Bill Self said. "He doesn't do it consistently."

NBA scouts who have passed through Lawrence told me that they are unsure why everyone has labeled Wiggins as the clear-cut No. 1 overall pick.

"I certainly wasn't blown away by him," said one high-ranking NBA executive. "He was just OK. Average. I'm just not buying all this no-brainer stuff about him being the No. 1 pick. I just don't see it yet."

The Jayhawks have talent. Make no mistake about it. There are two other freshmen, skilled 7-footer Joel Embiid and 6-foot-5 shooting guard Wayne Selden, who could play their way into June's NBA lottery.

But Wiggins is supposed to be the prize of a loaded 2014 NBA draft. He shouldn't just blend in; he should be dominating.

I saw James in high school, watched Durant as a freshman at Texas and have seen other No. 1 picks such as John Wall and Kyrie Irving countless times. Those guys dominated nearly every time out, whether it was practice or a game.

To be sure, I like Wiggins -- both as a person and as a player. However, the expectations are too high for him, and I'm not sure he can handle it. Durant was quiet off the court, but not like Wiggins. In the span of a 15-minute interview, Wiggins spent much of the time looking at the ground. It wasn't just me, either. Others who have interviewed Wiggins lately had the same experience.

But this isn't about his lack of interviewing skills. Wiggins' effort is inconsistent, and while he could get away with that at the high school level at Huntington (W.Va.) Prep and in summer ball, he won't be able to do it in college -- and certainly not in the NBA.

"Maybe he'll wind up getting there this season, but he's a long, long way off right now," said another NBA guy who came through Lawrence in the preseason. "He looks like just another player. I've seen him a few times in the past, and to be honest, he hasn't been off-the-charts any of those times. I love his athleticism, but I worry about his intensity -- as well as other aspects of his game. He doesn't shoot it great, and he's got zero aura about him. Again, I'm not saying he can't get there -- but people are making far more of this kid than they should."

Wiggins is a freakish athlete, but there are plenty of high-level athletes in the NBA. Josh Smith is a high-level athlete, but that doesn't mean he'll ever be an NBA superstar.

Wiggins is a mediocre shooter. I'd guess he'll shoot somewhere around 30 percent from beyond the arc this season. Although he's an elite athlete and has terrific body control, his ballhandling also needs work. Once he refines his handle, he could be extremely effective in the half court. Right now, though, he has difficulty getting by defenders in tight spaces.

Wiggins hasn't looked the part of a future NBA star, but it's still early.


Notes

• Oklahoma State's Marcus Smart could have gone somewhere in the top half of the lottery this past June but decided to return to school and improve his floor game. It's still a work in progress, but Smart looks far more comfortable running the team now. He's making the simple pass more often than trying to make a spectacular one. Smart possesses all the intangibles (leadership, toughness) and is more athletic than people realize. He doesn't always use his athleticism with high-flying dunks, though.

Smart's biggest drawback is his perimeter shot, and although mechanically it doesn't look broken, he's still a mediocre (at best) shooter from deep. Smart will need to improve this aspect of his game at the NBA level, and my guess is that with his work ethic, he can accomplish this in time. Smart is no worse off in this aspect of his game than Derrick Rose was at the same point in his career. Smart might slide a few spots from where he was slated to go in last year's draft, but he's not worried about that. He's more concerned with being ready when he gets to the next level.

• Michigan's Glenn Robinson III was the most impressive player of anyone I saw on the trip. GR3 will see more time at his natural position, small forward, this season. The 6-7 Robinson has added weight and become more athletic.

The questions regarding the son of the "Big Dog" were about his perimeter shot and ability to put the ball on the floor. Robinson buried deep jumper after deep jumper and appears far more comfortable at the 3-spot in John Beilein's offense. It's still yet to be determined whether this aspect of his skill set will translate in games, but it's a good sign with Robinson more assertive on the offensive end. If he can gain a consistent jumper to go with his athleticism, he'll almost certainly be a lottery pick.

• Louisville's Montrezl Harrell's best asset is his motor. Harrell is relentless in his pursuit of the ball, but people may be surprised with his skill level. The 6-9 sophomore can step out and shoot it from 18 feet and in, although that's not exactly where he'll be most effective. Harrell is an average shot-blocker, but he runs the court extremely well and will be best served playing in an up-tempo offense in the NBA. Harrell should be a double-double guy this season, but he'll need to make certain to stay out of foul trouble and reel in that aggressiveness at times. Harrell is probably a guy who will be drafted somewhere from 10-20.

• Embiid is a guy of potential. Remember, the 7-foot Cameroon native has been playing basketball for only a couple of years. He's extremely raw but has so much to work with. He's not only learning the game but also learning -- like Wiggins -- how to play hard on every possession. Embiid has a skill package that allows him to score in the post and the ability to step out and make shots to the 3-point line. That's what makes him so intriguing. He's not a big-time shot-blocker and probably will be a skilled power forward in time. Don't expect Embiid to put up huge numbers this season at Kansas, as he'll share time with Tarik Black and Perry Ellis, but he'll almost certainly be a high lottery pick because of his high ceiling.

• Selden used to be a power guard. I was concerned that he might wind up like former Syracuse guard Paul Harris, who was able to physically overpower guys in high school but wasn't able to do the same in college when others caught up. However, the 6-5 Selden looks like a different player than he did a year ago. His perimeter shot is much-improved, and he also has better court vision and passing ability than I ever realized.

Selden isn't a point guard, but he makes others better. However, his biggest strength is his ability to score in a variety of ways. Selden could easily make it a trifecta in terms of having three Kansas guys taken in the top 15 or so after this season. Selden has the highest motor of the three and possesses more toughness than Wiggins and Embiid.

• I have touted Payne for more than two years as someone whom people need to take notice of once the light turns on. Well, the light did turn on midway through last season, and he spurned the NBA to return for his senior season. I'm not sure it was the best decision, but Payne will get his college degree.

Payne is an athletic 6-9 forward who also can step out and make 3s. NBA folks are worried about his inconsistency, and I'm not sure Payne will change their opinion this season. If he does, he can be a lottery pick. Payne needs to show that intensity and become a more dominant rebounder for someone his size.

• Indiana freshman Vonleh is a tough one to figure. The 6-10, 240-pound Massachusetts native will be pressed into service because Tom Crean lost a ton of last season's team. Vonleh has shown glimpses of being a star, but he hardly dominated in the prep ranks while at New Hampton, especially on offense. That'll be something to watch -- how Crean uses Vonleh on offense. Vonleh is probably ultimately a power forward at the next level, but he's still a work in progress, and knows it. Vonleh is extremely coachable, high-character and will continue to improve -- but he'd be best served to spend two seasons in college.