While many view the Washington Nationals as a 2017 playoff team and perhaps a World Series contender, as of today there isn’t an experienced closer on the roster. That hardly means veteran right-handers Shawn Kelley, Joe Blanton, Blake Treinen or even youngster Koda Glover aren’t capable of saving 35-plus games, but it does seem a bit odd that the Nationals, with a veteran manager and a team that has played key October games in recent years -- and failed in them -- hasn’t signed or traded for someone with the closer tag attached to them.
Fantasy owners are looking at the Nationals and thinking it’s a ripe buying opportunity, and at this point that means Kelley, but there’s risk. For one, Kelley enters the season at age 32 with 11 career saves, and he has yet to reach 60 innings in a big league season. He’s not the most durable fellow. Second, the Nationals have been linked to Chicago White Sox closer David Robertson. A trade at any time, as alluded to in the look at American League bullpen report Tuesday, would make perfect sense.
The Nationals really don’t need to act, though. After all, last season’s bullpen boasted the second-best ERA in the sport, just a nick behind the Los Angeles Dodgers, and did so with no pitcher accumulating as many as 20 saves. Mark Melancon was acquired in July and the Nationals could always hold off on a trade this year until the trading deadline. Kelley also could emerge as one of the top closers in the league. It has happened before. Who do I think will lead the Nationals in saves? Well, as with the AL, let’s go team-by-team in the National League and find out.
Arizona Diamondbacks: Say what you will about arrow-shooting veteran Fernando Rodney and his aslant hat, but he still throws hard and he has averaged 35 saves for the past five years. Rodney might not help your ERA and WHIP, but saves are saves -- and Arizona signed him, with little financial investment, to save games. It’s not like the Diamondbacks have an obvious closer demanding opportunity, after all.
Prediction: Rodney was excellent (and fortunate) for the Padres in 2016, and earned himself an All-Star berth. It seems improbable, but I think he keeps the job for a while until he’s dealt again. Give Rodney 19 saves before re-joining the Mariners. Jake Barrett is likely next in line, though he could start the year on the DL. Enrique Burgos? Randall Delgado? Perhaps even Tom Wilhelmsen pushes his way into the ninth inning. However, I’ll give Barrett 13 saves for the final two months.
Atlanta Braves: Several intriguing arms will line up in this bullpen but I really think Jim Johnson, who suddenly became a strikeout guy in 2016, keeps the role. Arodys Vizcaino and Mauricio Cabrera, however, are the better long-term options.
Prediction: Johnson saves 36 games. Yes, I’m going against conventional wisdom here, but I think the Braves are trying to win now. Vizcaino should be a nice provider of holds.
Chicago Cubs: The organization had little use for right fielder Jorge Soler, so the cost to acquire Wade Davis -- even for only a season -- wasn’t exorbitant. However, expecting Davis, who had multiple DL stints in 2016 due to elbow woes, to pitch 60 innings seems generous, especially when the Cubs appear to be October-bound and can afford to be overly cautious.
Prediction: Davis leads the club with 25 saves, but I take the under on 50 innings. The ERA and WHIP should be good, though. Hector Rondon should be next in line over Carl Edwards Jr., Pedro Strop and Koji Uehara, so I’ll give Rondon 14 saves and Edwards seven. In a dynasty format, Edwards is the one to watch, but then again, the way the Cubs handled their closer in October, perhaps they view their options as annually replaceable.
Cincinnati Reds: Manager Bryan Price did interesting things with the bullpen last season, using right-handers Raisel Iglesias and Michael Lorenzen, among others, for multiple innings at a time. Lefty Tony Cingrani led the club in saves, but it was an ugly second half.
Prediction: It has become clear the Reds view Iglesias as a reliever, and he’s very talented. I don’t see Cingrani as much of a threat, but newcomer Drew Storen is experienced -- and for most managers, that would be enough. I’ll give Iglesias 23 saves, but I think both Storen and Lorenzen will approach double digits as well.
Colorado Rockies: Another potential mess looms here, though Adam Ottavino seems deserving of the first save opportunity and some slack in case of an early misstep. Greg Holland, Jake McGee and Jason Motte all have more closing experience.
Prediction: Holland is the biggest threat, but he missed all of last season and might not be ready for April. Ottavino is going to keep this role and save 28 games, falling just short of becoming the first Rockies pitcher since 2012 (Rafael Betancourt) to reach the 30-save mark. Hey, it’s tough at Coors Field. McGee leads the team with 22 holds.
Los Angeles Dodgers: My No. 1 closer off the board is Kenley Jansen, though I still wouldn’t act on him in the first eight rounds of a standard draft.
Prediction: Jansen ends up fantasy’s top closer with 46 saves and a 2.10 ERA. Watch out for lefty Grant Dayton as the top holds guy, though. He really should be the top setup man and can handle right-handed bats just fine.
Miami Marlins: A.J. Ramos has saved 72 games over the past two seasons but hasn’t felt so safe during that time, as the Marlins look for competition to push him. Sure, Ramos can get wild at times and the walk rate is elevated, but electric Kyle Barraclough has the same problem. It’s tough to see submarining newcomer Brad Ziegler pushing Ramos aside.
Prediction: It might not be so pretty with the WHIP, but I say Ramos keeps the job for another year and saves 39 games. Barraclough looms, though. Ziegler probably leads the club in holds.
Milwaukee Brewers: People forget that Neftali Feliz saved 40 games for the 2010 Rangers and won top rookie honors. He has never been as valuable since then, and the Brewers have young options with closer stuff, but Feliz is here to have a good first half and become trade bait. There's nothing wrong with that. I just don’t think it will work. He did, after all, somehow permit 10 home runs for last season’s Pirates.
Prediction: Corey Knebel closed in college and in the minors, and while it makes financial sense for rebuilding teams to keep young relievers away from saves to suppress future salary, this seems unavoidable. Feliz saves 22 games in an inconsistent first three months and Knebel saves 16 after that, building a case for dynasty purposes.
New York Mets: Nobody had more saves than Jeurys Familia in 2016, but command can be an issue and there’s a looming suspension for a domestic violence incident.
Prediction: While Familia seems like a candidate to see his ERA rise again, perhaps to the wrong side of 3.00, he’s the undisputed closer when active. Perhaps his suspension lasts a month, at which time Addison Reed -- who was better than Familia in 2016 and has closed before - should see chances. I think Reed ends up with a mere 10 saves, while Familia gets 35.
Philadelphia Phillies: While it seems ill-advised to go back to veteran Jeanmar Gomez as closer, especially if loyalty is the reason for manager Pete Mackanin, the case can be made. For one, Gomez had 24 saves and a 2.59 ERA at the All-Star break. His September was awful, but he can be effective when he locates his pitches and there's more than an outside chance he can keep the role. Perhaps the Phillies, like the Brewers, want to prevent their harder-throwing young arms from accumulating saves for arbitration purposes.
Prediction: It seems so obvious that Hector Neris, Joaquin Benoit and perhaps Edubray Ramos would be better closers than Gomez (due to strikeout rate) that it makes perfect sense for Gomez to keep the role. I’ll take the under on another 30 saves, but he doesn’t lose the job in April. Gomez saves 28, Neris adds 14 and it would be a blast if switch-pitcher Pat Venditte makes the club.
Pittsburgh Pirates: The third lefty closer in the game, after Zach Britton and Aroldis Chapman, is Tony Watson. Already there are rumors, however, that the Pirates signed right-hander Daniel Hudson to handle things in the ninth. It does make sense. Watson’s fastball velocity has dropped in consecutive seasons and he allowed 10 home runs last year. He’s also a pending free agent, so he might be somewhere else in August.
Prediction: Watson closes the first two months but cedes the ninth inning to lefty Felipe Rivero, who probably should be closing for the Nationals today. Rivero boasts electric stuff and was used in the Melancon trade. The Pirates did well there. Watson will lead the team in saves but won’t get to 30. Hudson and Rivero will both approach double digits.
San Diego Padres: Have you seen the San Diego rotation? It’s not going to be good, and the Padres know it. Brandon Maurer should start the season as closer and probably could keep the job due to a lack of alternatives and no incentive to change. Yes, Carter Capps and his interesting-but-legal delivery loom, but he’s coming back from Tommy John surgery. We’ll see in June.
Prediction: Capps fanned 58 over 31 innings in 2015, so he’s certainly got a chance to become relevant, but not right away. Maurer isn’t special, but he’ll end up leading the squad with 26 saves, as lefty Ryan Buchter steals seven. Capps ends up with one save.
San Francisco Giants: Manager Bruce Bochy famously didn’t trust his bullpen down the stretch, or else the October series with the Cubs could have been a lot more interesting. Mark Melancon was given millions of dollars to sign and now all should be well. No, really.
Prediction: Fantasy owners rarely view Melancon as a top-tiered option due to the modest strikeout rate, but reliability matters. He’s a top-5 closer, again, and will lead the majors with 48 saves. Hunter Strickland should pile on the holds.
St. Louis Cardinals: No drama here, either, as Seung-Hwan Oh was a top-10 reliever for fantasy despite saving only 19 games. He struck out 103 hitters. No drama.
Prediction: Oh more than doubles his save total, reaching 44, but he falls short of 100 whiffs thanks to more cautious usage. Still, he’s in the top tier of closers. I’m intrigued by what happens with former closer Trevor Rosenthal and what role he’s in, but expect the Cardinals to trade for setup help if they need it. Dellin Betances, anyone?
Washington Nationals: Finally we close with what should be the Shawn Kelley-led corps. Kelley can save 35 games if permitted to, but if I’m drafting today, I’m not sure I take the risk in the same tier with safer guys like Francisco Rodriguez or Jim Johnson. The Nationals might seem like they are being progressive in their thinking that Kelley can close, but they just haven’t made another move yet.
Prediction: Among current Nationals, Kelley has the best shot at 30 saves. I still think a trade is made at some point, either this month or in July. Kelley saves 26 games and someone (perhaps with the initials D.R.?) pushes him aside when August begins. Next in line today is probably Blanton, by the way. He has two career saves. By June, it’s probably Glover.