<
>

Team-by-team AL saves, bullpen projections

Cody Allen doesn't seem to be getting any love from fantasy owners. Does he deserve better? Elsa/Getty Images

As is the case in most years, this season’s American League features several dominant closers for fantasy purposes, along with a few problematic situations that could favor a number of different pitchers. That said, it’s tough to remember a recent situation like the current Cleveland Indians. The defending American League pennant winners employ an excellent right-handed stopper with three consecutive seasons of saves and strikeouts and more, but also a lefty hurler eminently capable of closing out games with even more strikeouts and better figures in ERA and WHIP. It seems like fantasy owners can’t decide which way to go.

Indeed, it’s unlikely one will find right-hander Cody Allen, the primary closer the past few seasons (and during the team’s October playoff run) chosen among the top-10 relief options in any mixed format, whereas lefty Andrew Miller is far more likely to end up with such a designation, even sans the saves. They’re both really, really good, but Cleveland manager Terry Francona is likely to stick with Allen in the ninth inning, with Miller setting up. Of course, if that’s the case, then why is Miller held in higher esteem in fantasy leagues?

Just one year ago, fantasy owners were presented with the unique trio of New York Yankees strikeout options and of course, had all three remained with the team, only one of them was likely to provide a healthy total of saves. That was lefty Aroldis Chapman. Miller and right-hander Dellin Betances were setup men. The Yankees ultimately dealt their lefties and gave Betances the job. Ultimately, they didn’t like his work in the role and now he’s back setting up. Betances and Miller saved 12 games apiece and certainly aided fantasy owners in other categories as well, but I’ve definitely cooled on selecting relief pitchers not likely to produce gaudy save totals.

Let’s go team-by-team in the AL with one man’s opinion about the saves and value and all that fun stuff.

Baltimore Orioles: There should be no concerns with Zach Britton, except for his lack of usage in a one-game playoff. Whatever. For the six-month regular season, however, he should continue to induce a million ground balls and float past 40 saves. For holds and strikeouts and safe numbers, this is also one of the top bullpens around. You can’t go wrong with Brad Brach and Mychal Givens, while Darren O'Day should bounce back.

Prediction: Britton will be a top-5 closer with 42 saves, a minuscule ERA and enough strikeouts that nobody should ignore him.

Boston Red Sox: There are definite concerns with Craig Kimbrel, though as with last year, he’s still throwing hard enough that he can fake his way to a top-10 closer season. For six consecutive seasons Kimbrel has dominated, but he hasn’t struck out 100 hitters in a year since 2012. Last season, his walk rate ballooned, he needed a DL stint for a knee issue and, as his owners know, he was terrible in non-save situations. Plus, this is a contending team with hard-throwers Tyler Thornburg and Joe Kelly lurking.

Prediction: Kimbrel’s ERA will again be on the wrong side of 3.00, but with 80 whiffs and 35 saves, few will care. He’s just not in the top tier anymore. If Thornburg -- who has looked rough this spring coming off a terrific year in Milwaukee -- can thrive, then this could get interesting.

Chicago White Sox: It’s hard to believe the Washington Nationals haven’t dealt for David Robertson but, as of today, in mid-March, D-Rob is the Chicago closer. The White Sox figure to lose many games but if Robertson stays, he should top 30 saves. This isn’t a 100-loss team. Just note he hasn’t posted a sub-3.00 ERA since 2013 and, as with Kimbrel, command was a problem in 2016. Still, he can fake his way to being a top-20 fantasy reliever, just like last year when he was No. 16.

Prediction: The White Sox really need to move Robertson before his arm falls off, and they should allow Nate Jones to accumulate saves, then trade him as well! I still think Robertson ends up dealt before April. Remember the year Kimbrel went to San Diego mere minutes before the season started? I will say that, if Robertson stays in town, he’ll end up with 32 saves. If he leaves, Jones would obviously be the better value and he’d get those 32 saves, with 90 strikeouts. Also, keep an eye on right-hander Michael Ynoa. He’s a walker, but boasts a closer profile.

Cleveland Indians: Since we've already addressed the main guys here, this seems like an opportunity to be brief -- unless one wants a dissertation on why Dan Otero, awesome in 2016, will likely regress quite a bit.

Prediction: Underrated Allen saves 38 games and Miller earns “only” seven. I wouldn’t be concerned about Miller based on his rough WBC work, but it is asking a lot -- after he worked into November last season -- to expect a fourth consecutive season of more than 100 strikeouts. So, I say he ends up with around 85 whiffs and a 2.40 ERA, which is fine, but not top-10 reliever worthy with low saves. In other words, I’d choose Allen first. By the way, it’s foolish to think Francona will allow Miller to enter June or July games during the sixth inning. In October, though, sure.

Detroit Tigers: Nobody ever seems to target the active leader in saves, but Francisco Rodriguez has averaged 42 of them over the past three seasons, with a 2.85 ERA. There's nothing wrong with that and he’s annually a wise value. I say he does it again but right-hander Bruce Rondon makes for an interesting handcuff.

Prediction: K-Rod saves 40 games because, well, he always seems to. Besides, 35 isn’t too old for a reliever. He’s a one-category closer, but that category is safe.

Houston Astros: Three Astros reached double-digit saves last season, the only team in the land that can boast that oddity. I don’t think it happens again. Ken Giles was inconsistent, with both a terrible first and last month, but he was dominant in between. He was one of eight relief pitchers to reach 100 strikeouts. He’ll get there again.

Prediction: There will be no time-share this season. Giles keeps the job and saves 41 for the AL West winners. Luke Gregerson and Will Harris will each go over 25 holds. For those drafting sophomore Chris Devenski, be careful. I love the arm and his future, but those numbers are hard to repeat.

Kansas City Royals: With Wade Davis off to the world champs, it’s Joakim Soria setting up Kelvin Herrera -- and I think that works out nicely. The guy to watch (though not for saves) is lefty Matt Strahm, for I could see a Devenski-type season from him, with some starts in the mix, over 100 innings and strikeouts, and a great ERA.

Prediction: Expect no surprises here as Herrera saves a solid 36 games while Soria, who isn’t great, piles on the holds.

Los Angeles Angels: Wow, with this team, so many scenarios are in play. What should happen is that Cam Bedrosian starts April as the closer, thrives as expected, and ends up with 35 saves. But you just know a manager as loyal as Mike Scioscia is loath to do such a thing if Huston Street, with 324 career saves, is healthy. He’s not, of course (and he wasn’t last year either), but let’s not let facts get in the way.

Prediction: I can’t give Bedrosian 30 saves, and not only because of his manager. The son of the 1987 NL Cy Young winner also has to prove he can avoid walks and the DL before I fully buy in. Street just looked awful in 2016. Can he really matter? So here we go -- Bedrosian saves six games in April before getting hurt, then Street saves seven and then Andrew Bailey, a former Rookie of the Year as a closer gets involved. The limb I’m choosing has Bailey leading the team with 18 saves, which kind of means I’m not calling Bedrosian such a super sleeper. Bedrosian saves 15 and, as for Street? He gets only those seven.

Minnesota Twins: The main reason to doubt right-hander Brandon Kintzler is because of his pedestrian strikeout rate. However, it's also because lefty Glen Perkins is likely to push him aside if his balky shoulder allows. It seems optimistic to expect Perkins to be healthy, after he threw all of two innings last year. The presumed guy to watch is rookie J.T. Chargois, who closed games and missed bats in the minors, but there’s little indication manager Paul Molitor intends to go in that direction.

Prediction: Kintzler loses the job in mid-May because, bottom line, you’ve got to miss more bats, and it’s veteran Ryan Pressly (and not Chargois) who gets handed the job. This will anger fantasy owners so much, which is why it feels so likely. Maybe Chargois gets his chance in September. Kintzler and Pressly go back and forth and for Perkins, well, it was a good run. Pressly saves 22, Kintzler 14.

New York Yankees: Sorry, Dellin, you’re just not closer material. (I don’t really believe that, but the Yankees claimed it, so it must be true.)

Prediction: Chapman saves 38 games -- he has never reached 40 -- but tops 100 strikeouts for the fifth time in six years. Betances, bitter about how the team treated him during the arbitration hearings, demands a trade in July when unworthy Tyler Clippard gets a random save opportunity or two instead of him. Betances is dealt to the Cardinals and wins the NL wild-card game.

Oakland Athletics: Few would call veteran right-hander Ryan Madson particularly awesome or safe, which makes lefty Sean Doolittle and right-hander Santiago Casilla potentially relevant. I’d pick Doolittle, the 2014 closer, to win the job but he’s had shoulder woes for two years. I’d pick Ryan Dull if I thought the club’s top reliever from 2016 -- despite the many home runs -- had a realistic shot to leapfrog the proven veterans.

Prediction: Barring injury, it looks like Madson has the job to start the season and, while I think Doolittle sprinkles in some chances here and there, it's Madson who ends up saving 28 games. Doolittle gets 12 and Casilla and Dull combine for six.

Seattle Mariners: Edwin Diaz was a rookie revelation and strikeout machine, pushing Steve Cishek aside. Cishek wasn’t bad, but Diaz was special.

Prediction: Diaz sure looks like a 40-save option with 100-plus whiffs, which means top-5 status among his peers. If he falters, right-hander Dan Altavilla would be pretty good too. Diaz shouldn’t falter.

Tampa Bay Rays: There shouldn’t be any surprises here, either. Alex Colome had a solid season and nothing Brad Boxberger does should change that.

Prediction: Colome was a top-10 closer last season and, with another 38 saves, should get there again.

Texas Rangers: Right-hander Sam Dyson appeared to have another excellent season, with a 2.43 ERA and 38 saves. It shouldn't be ignored, though, that his K-rate dropped to an ordinary level, he walked people in the second half and Matt Bush, if he can sustain his rookie season, is simply a better closer candidate. Jeremy Jeffress is in this bullpen too, but if I’m really speculating I’d go with Keone Kela, who was good in 2015 and hurt last season. Bush should be next in line.

Prediction: I don’t see Dyson keeping the job all season, thus my rather tepid ranking for him outside the top 20. Still, he should save 20 games, while Bush also gets 20 and Kela chips in with a few.

Toronto Blue Jays: The only concern with Roberto Osuna is his home run rate, but he boasts two standout seasons as a closer with a career 0.93 WHIP. Oh, did I forget to mention that he just turned 22? He should be able to pile on the saves for a while. This is a good place for Kimbrel owners to invest.

Prediction: Osuna has outperformed his FIP each season, so perhaps the ERA rises some, but you'll still enjoy the 42 saves. Jason Grilli threw 42 innings for the club and earned 21 holds in 2016. It seems like he could approach 30 this year.