When the Arizona Diamondbacks decided to bestow a historically generous contract upon right-hander Zack Greinke last offseason -- and certainly nobody can fault him for accepting it -- fantasy owners figured the change in scenery from Los Angeles wouldn’t be a positive one for his statistics. In fact, I theorized in various places -- in posts, on Twitter and on the Fantasy Focus baseball podcast -- that his league-leading 1.66 ERA would probably double. Of course, then Greinke made me look silly by nearly tripling the ERA.
Sure, Greinke came at a discount on draft day, certainly based on his incredible 2015 statistics, but it turned out the 32-year-old should have been avoided at all costs. Who knew? Even the most pessimistic fantasy owner didn’t expect this. Greinke was pounded in his first Diamondbacks start and never seemed to adapt to hitter-friendly Chase Field, even though he wasn’t exactly a stranger to the ballpark.
The first half of the season wasn’t awful (nor was it consistent) by any means, but then physical maladies ruined his second half and he made only 26 starts in total. There were 58 starting pitchers who topped him on the season-long Player Rater, including luminaries like Josh Tomlin, Ivan Nova and Zach Davies.
As we continue to focus on bounce-back candidates -- Bryce Harper and many batsmen were covered on Wednesday -- Greinke is perhaps the best example of a fantastic talent who, if healthy, can’t help but improve quite a bit from 2016. Yes, home/road splits can be a thing, but not to this degree. This is not Denver. Phoenix isn’t that difficult a place to pitch. Arizona’s defense should be improved and that will help.
Plus, let’s remember Greinke has struck out 200 hitters five times, including the two seasons before 2016. He’s not Max Scherzer, but Greinke should be a lot better, perhaps offering the numbers expected in 2015. I 'm looking at an ERA in the 3.50 range, a WHIP near 1.20 and enough strikeouts to matter. This is a good pitcher, and I’ve got him coming at a proper discount, outside the top 100 overall, but among the top-30 starting pitchers in the range of Cole Hamels, John Lackey and Marcus Stroman.
Here are some other pitchers on the bounce-back trail, though not all come recommended.
Gerrit Cole, Pittsburgh Pirates: The No. 9 starting pitcher chosen in ESPN average live drafts, and a fourth-rounder overall, Cole endured elbow problems that sent him to the disabled list three times in 2016. His numbers, in a way, aren’t as relevant because of that, but we also don’t know if he truly is fine now. His 2015 was excellent, so I’m willing to gamble he can become a top-20 pitcher again in the upcoming campaign.
Chris Archer, Tampa Bay Rays: With 233 strikeouts -- a figure topped by only four hurlers -- it might seem strange to include him here, but we expected a strong ERA and more than nine wins to go along with all of those punchouts. Archer’s second half was considerably better, with a 3.25 ERA and 1.07 WHIP, and due to the attrition of others Archer nearly ends up in my top 10.
Drew Smyly, Seattle Mariners: What was it with Tampa Bay pitchers? Like Archer, Smyly also allowed more than 30 home runs, hardly characteristic for either player. The K-rate was good enough. Perhaps the offseason trade across the United States will help Smyly stay healthy and reach 200 innings for the first time in his five-year career.
Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners: A bastion of durability and consistency for a decade, the King’s fastball velocity keeps on slipping. Hitters finally figured him out in 2016. In fact, Hernandez was fortunate the numbers weren’t worse, as his FIP was nearly a run worse than his ERA. More walks and fewer strikeouts means that I’m scared. Yes, Justin Verlander hit a wall and came back from it, but this situation worries me. How often does a situation like Verlander ever happen?
Dallas Keuchel, Houston Astros: Do you know what else scares me, other than snakes and going to the dentist? (Wow, can you imagine if there were snakes at the dentist?) Shoulder injuries to pitchers are a frightening problem. Awesome in 2015 and afflicted with shoulder inflammation in the follow-up season, it’s pretty clear that the left-hander who relies so much on pinpoint command isn’t 100-percent healthy. I’d avoid Keuchel even more so than Hernandez. Elbows get fixed. Shoulder woes end careers.
Matt Harvey, New York Mets: Yikes, we’ve hit on a theme of despair here. Harvey is a great example why relying on pitchers in dynasty formats is so much more dangerous than depending on hitters. This guy was unflappable, well, other than the Tommy John surgery that erased his 2014. The track record for thriving after thoracic outlet surgery -- it’s a shoulder thing -- isn’t promising. Again, look elsewhere for your first four or five starters.
Jordan Zimmermann, Detroit Tigers: Neck and back pain destroyed his first season in the American League and while it might seem like random picking and choosing when trying to decide on which injured folks to rely on, the difference with Zimmermann is that his expectations will be modest at best. He's not returning to a major strikeout rate. The numbers we saw from him in 2015 seem reasonable -- if he’s healthy.
Sonny Gray, Oakland Athletics: As with Zimmermann, when the strikeout rate isn’t special, analysts aren’t as excited to recommend or invest, since the ceiling isn’t high. Don’t even look at Gray’s miserable 2016 numbers. His first four starts were fine and then it’s pretty clear his arm wasn’t right. It’s possible it’s still not right, but the organization has much incentive for him to pitch well, as they missed the opportunity to sell high last offseason.
Other starters on the bounce-back trail I’m not as excited about include Michael Wacha, James Shields, Tyson Ross and Shelby Miller. Take a look at their collective ADPs a year ago. Things change fast. Oddly enough, Miller might be the best gamble of the crew. One has to think at least some of his issues in 2016 were not physical.
Carter Capps, San Diego Padres: On the comeback trail from Tommy John surgery, Capps is one of the signature strikeout relievers in the game, buoyed by an unorthodox delivery. He struck out a ridiculous 16.8 hitters per nine innings back in 2015. We shouldn’t expect Capps to close Opening Day but, when he’s ready (and assuming he’s effective), Brandon Maurer shouldn’t be much impediment for the team’s saves. When saves come with that monstrous K-rate, we pay extra attention.
Wade Davis, Chicago Cubs: The No. 1 closer off my draft board a season ago, Davis saw a drop of fastball velocity that isn’t likely to be mere coincidence. No, he dealt with a flexor strain in his elbow. His statistics over the past three seasons are ridiculous: 19-4 with a 1.18 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and 11.5 K/9, and nary a home run allowed in two of those years. However, my concern is the elbow. I’ll take the under on 30 saves and 60 innings, but the numbers should be solid when he’s available.