A year ago at this time, a reasonable case was being made that Washington Nationals outfielder Bryce Harper was the equal -- for both real-life and fantasy purposes -- of Los Angeles Angels outfielder Mike Trout. It seems rather silly today, of course, after Harper hit a mere .243 and went from being the No. 3 overall selection in ESPN average live drafts to ending up outside the top 20 outfielders and top 50 hitters on the Player Rater, but it’s true. Harper was terrific in 2015, though. Remember, a year ago he was coming off a season in which he hit .330, while Trout hit only .299. Each topped 40 home runs, nobody accrued more wins above replacement. Neither stole many bases.
Much has changed since then in our reactionary fantasy world, but even I admit to being a bit conflicted on how to judge Harper moving forward. We know Trout is amazing. He hit .315 last season and missed another 30/30 campaign by a single home run. He’s the consensus top pick for 2017. He boasts five consecutive seasons of outstanding fantasy production and, frankly, should have won the AL MVP in all five of those years, but I digress. Harper, however, has mustered one great season in that five-year span. That’s it. He’s battled injury, teammates, inconsistent power and stolen base production -- pretty much everything one can name.
When looking at bounce-back hitters for 2017, the list has to start with Harper. Sure, we’ll all be watching Pittsburgh Pirates icon Andrew McCutchen and a slew of other outfielders. Plus, those relying on Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander Zack Greinke in dynasty formats obviously have reasons for worry. However, Harper really could be one of the top players in the game again. Perhaps nothing changed and he was simply hurt, or maybe his confidence was shattered by a million walks one May weekend at Wrigley Field. We know he can hit for average. His plate discipline is fantastic. He can run when he wants, as evidenced by his 31 stolen base attempts. One would think he’s motivated, but he’s a risk, whether it’s Round 1 or 2 or 3, and some just will not want to go there.
I’m not going to pretend I know what numbers Harper will provide this season, because he’s a relative mystery. If this were a blog entry on players with the largest difference in fantasy ceiling and floor, then Harper could lead that one too, I suppose. With most players, the one great season out of five would be clearly aberrant, but this guy is 24 years old and has achieved some historic things. Some of the basic rules of analysis just don’t apply to him or, one might say, he gets a pass. Harper wasn’t actually that awful in 2016, so context is needed. I’d argue fantasy owners didn’t lose their leagues because Harper was their pick. McCutchen and Greinke were worse. Harper was one of nine players to reach both 20 home runs and 20 steals. He was top 20 in on-base percentage. What fantasy owners crave is for him to bounce back to true first-round greatness.
When I think of hitters bouncing back to contribute fantasy value -- we’ll examine pitchers in another blog entry -- some obvious names jump to mind and also some players who might have fallen a bit too far off the proverbial radar. So let’s investigate. And yes, it sure seems like outfield is the position to watch for this topic!
Catcher: Devin Mesoraco hit 25 home runs for the Cincinnati Reds in 2014. Since then he has managed just 15 base hits. When we talk about durability (or lack thereof), we tend to think of Troy Tulowitzki, right? Well, Mesoraco isn’t even in that stratosphere. Still, while we can debate whether Brian McCann, Salvador Perez and Stephen Vogt belong in this space as they vie for our attention in 10-team formats, not so many options are needed at catcher in ESPN formats, and those guys were at least usable last season. I’m kind of rooting for Mesoraco to actually return to relevance, but I wouldn’t take the chance unless it’s a two-catcher league.
First base: Lucas Duda slugged 57 home runs in 2014-15, then succumbed to back woes last season and managed to hit a mere seven in 47 games. The New York Mets figure to platoon him with Wilmer Flores or perhaps David Wright, and I’d argue that’s not a bad thing for Duda’s numbers. Batting average is already a problem, so why compound it by challenging him against left-handed pitching? This guy hit 28 home runs just against right-handed pitching in 2014. He’s capable of doing it again. Others at this position who should improve are Adrian Gonzalez and Justin Bour. Gonzalez is dealing with an elbow injury and it buys him a few weeks off, but he should be fine for April. He becomes a larger bargain.
Second base: Speedy Dee Gordon of the Miami Marlins is the obvious choice here, after a PED suspension cost him half of last season. Few expect another batting title (like in 2015), but there aren’t many players capable of stealing 60 bases. Gordon is, though it’s likely to cost fantasy owners a top-75 pick they might be better served using on a power option. Kolten Wong of the St. Louis Cardinals could also use a mulligan from 2016. Wong, 26, provided double digits in power and speed his first two seasons. He can draw a walk and should have a bit more job security this season.
Shortstop: What jumps out to me at this position isn’t a player bouncing back but one statistic for an individual that oddly disappeared. We’re, of course, talking about Baltimore Orioles star Manny Machado. He went from 20 steals in 28 attempts in 2015 to a great big goose egg in three chances last year. Machado remained valuable, just not as valuable. I’d like to think I know how many bags he’ll swipe this season, but I bet Machado doesn’t even know. Most of us will simply guess “Bo Derek” -- that means 10, by the way -- and move on. Then there are three young shortstops likely held in far greater esteem this time a year ago: Orlando Arcia, Ketel Marte and J.P. Crawford. Arcia is Milwaukee’s starter and capable of hitting for average and stealing bases. The same goes for new Arizona starter Marte. Crawford didn’t provide awesome minor league stats in the Phillies’ system but, like the others, should bounce back to some degree based on his track record.
Third base: Things could have gone better for Minnesota Twins youngster Miguel Sano in 2016. His batting average was a passable .269 as he hit 18 home runs in 80 games as a rookie, but it was .236 last year as the Twins attempted to make him a right fielder. It didn’t go well, and some believe it affected him at the plate. Sano swings and misses a lot, but if we were to fashion a blog about players with 40-homer potential who didn’t approach the number last year, he’s on the list. Also look for Kansas City Royals starter Mike Moustakas to get back on track after an ACL tear ruined his season, and the Boston Red Sox expect Pablo Sandoval to hit like he did in San Francisco. Taking a chance on these veterans in deeper formats seems wise. I have to admit I was in on Sandoval a year ago and was obviously mistaken, but I don’t like to give up on proven players. He can hit .275 with 20 home runs and 80 RBI.
Outfield: Several blog entries could have been written simply about the outfielders. McCutchen wasn’t stealing bases in recent seasons, so I do not expect he’s capable of returning to first-round consideration, though the power and plate discipline he showed late last year is a great sign that he can still hit for average with modest pop. Arizona’s A.J. Pollock, a bit like Bryce Harper, has had one great season and his durability is in question. Can Pollock be great again? I think so. Giancarlo Stanton, Justin Upton and Jose Bautista were disappointing in 2016 for sure. Stanton is going to go earlier in drafts than he should. Nobody questions the majestic power, but we dinged Troy Tulowitzki in the rankings a year ago and, well, Stanton is the outfield version of Tulo. I just don’t think people want to hear it.
What about the over/under on games for Cleveland’s Michael Brantley? Well, I want to say 120 games is fair -- and I'll take the over -- but I don’t get a strong vibe here either. World Series champion Kyle Schwarber looked fine in October and the Cubs say he’ll even get some work behind the plate. OK, that makes sense. Versatility matters. My concerns with Schwarber could inhabit its own blog entry, and probably will at some point. Yes, he’s bouncing back from destroying a knee and no, I don’t think he gets more than 500 plate appearances. More on him later. Don’t forget about Arizona’s David Peralta, as he was better than most remember in 2015 and is healthy now. If he hits in the spring, he will play, and that’s a strong final outfielder in 12-team formats. I'm not saying to take Peralta over Schwarber, but one of them is going in the seventh round, the other won't be selected in most leagues. Both are only outfield-eligible, at least to start the season.