It’s not fair to label the closing situations in the NL as a total mess. After all, more than half the teams are likely to be led by safe, established closers whom fantasy owners can trust. While injury and performance vary every season in unexpected ways, when predicting final saves totals I’m not trying to be goofy and bold -- just reasonable.
In the AL, most situations are pretty clear and I did predict that several current ninth-inning options will lose the role. In the NL, as you’ll see, things are quite a bit more problematic. Regardless, let’s get right to it.
Arizona Diamondbacks: Right-hander Brad Ziegler isn’t the conventional ninth-inning option in that he throws side-armed and Clayton Kershaw had more strikeouts in every month of last season than Ziegler totaled for the entire year. Still, Ziegler is effective and durable.
Stats: It’s not like right-hander Tyler Clippard, the new setup guy, has a long history of closing. Ziegler saves 33 games. For those interested in holds, Clippard and Daniel Hudson are both here, meaning it will be tough for either to get more than 20 of them. By the way, I like right-hander Silvino Bracho, but this organization doesn’t seem progressive enough to trust someone lacking experience.
Atlanta Braves: It sure seems like the organization wants right-hander Jason Grilli to close, but perhaps only so it adds to the trade value. Makes sense. Atlanta has done wonders revamping its minor league system. Grilli probably would have been moved in July if not for a ruptured Achilles. He’s apparently fine now but I’ll predict he isn’t closing when camp breaks, as the dreaded “committee” angle has already been tossed out there. Plus, Arodys Vizcaino is just better, trade market or not.
Stats: Grilli will pitch well and get some saves, but Vizcaino starts April with the job and keeps it. He saves 24 games. Grilli saves eight. Jim Johnson gets three. If Braves were really smart they’d trade all these guys because a closer isn’t necessary on a 90-loss squad. I bet Mike Foltynewicz would be good at it, for example.
Chicago Cubs: It sure seemed like manager Joe Maddon wanted anyone other than Hector Rondon closing at times last season, but Rondon was really good. We shouldn’t be surprised, either.
Stats: Don’t expect 40 saves, even if the Cubs win 100, because Maddon knows he doesn’t need to use Rondon in every last opportunity. Travis Wood saved a handful of 2015 wins. Rondon earns 33 saves, Pedro Strop another six and Wood adds five. And Strop is one of the top holds options around, getting 30 of them in 2016.
Cincinnati Reds: There doesn’t seem to be a ton of belief in right-hander J.J. Hoover, which is odd. The Reds have basically given him the job. Skills-wise it’s easy to see why Hoover will struggle. He’s permitted 20 home runs in two seasons. He walks people. His FIP was bloated in both campaigns. Perhaps things will be different with the “closer” role attached, but I can’t project smooth sailing.
Stats: Even bad teams get some saves -- just not a lot. Look for Hoover, Jumbo Diaz and Blake Wood to each get chances to close, with nobody topping Hoover’s 18 saves. Even erratic pitchers can save 18 games. Diaz gets 11. And I don’t see lefty Tony Cingrani figuring into the role. Ah, fond memories of him.
Colorado Rockies: Lefty Jake McGee might have seemed an odd acquisition by a non-contending team, but as long as he’s healthy, he’ll be getting saves. McGee has posted a sub-1.00 WHIP in three of four seasons, and pitching in Coors Field doesn’t figure to trip him up. He’s really good.
Stats: Experienced right-handers Jason Motte and Chad Qualls loom, and at some point Adam Ottavino should return from Tommy John surgery, but I think McGee is relatively safe. Let’s give him one DL stint, but 29 saves anyway. Motte adds 10 more. With Ottavino, who knows? He was a far more interesting stash before the offseason acquisitions.
Los Angeles Dodgers: As dominant as right-hander Kenley Jansen can be, he’s posted an ERA better than 2.35 only once in five full seasons. There’s a good chance for more than 100 strikeouts here and he’ll have a really long leash considering the rest of the bullpen.
Stats: Jansen saves 41 games, with Chris Hatcher next at four and with 22 holds.
Miami Marlins: The winter infatuation with right-hander Carter Capps ended early, eh? He’s done. A.J. Ramos had possibly the quietest 32-save campaign last year, so he’s not sneaking up on anyone. Walks aren’t really an issue for Ramos anymore.
Stats: I’m intrigued by right-hander Kyle Barraclough and wouldn’t be surprised if he takes this job, but it seems premature today. Ramos saves 34 games, or 32 more than Barraclough. Get the latter for 18 holds, though. Mike Dunn generally gets plenty of holds as well.
Milwaukee Brewers: We’ve got a legitimate battle here! And of course, I like someone not in the battle. Anyway, I do think lefty Will Smith is more than capable of a big season as closer, despite only one save to his big league credit. Right-hander Jeremy Jeffress also fits the criteria, though he’s been dealing with hamstring woes in March.
Stats: I’m going out on a limb here and predicting Smith leaves camp with the saves and keeps the role for a while, but right-hander Corey Knebel, saver of games in college and the minors, steps up over the summer. It’s Smith in the first half, Knebel in the second. Smith ends up with 20 saves, Knebel 14. And Jeffress gets only seven. Michael Blazek is in play as well for four saves.
New York Mets: No real argument here, right? Jeurys Familia is really good and really safe. And to think, a year ago Jenrry Mejia was supposed to close.
Stats: Familia saves an NL-leading 45 games. Let’s give setup man Addison Reed two saves and Antonio Bastardo one, just because. If you’re wondering, there was no major league team last season in which one pitcher earned all of the total saves.
Philadelphia Phillies: I could publish an entire blog entry on this team. Philly’s bullpen could be historically terrible. I’m sorry, but it’s true. Right-hander David Hernandez has saved games before and they wanted him to get the first shot, but it’s tough to expect six months of health when he’s having trouble making it through March. Similarly, Andrew Bailey is far from durable. Edward Mujica? Dalier Hinojosa? Al Holland? This should be fun!
Stats: I think it’s Bailey, a South Jersey product who won a Rookie of the Year award as a closer. He’s pitching well today. Hernandez might not be ready for April, so Bailey starts with the job until he can’t pitch anymore, which hopefully comes later this summer, but probably not. Right-hander Luis Garcia, he of the team-leading 16 holds in 2015, is also in play but of course, Garcia isn’t good. He might not make the team at all. His big league WHIP is 1.66! My sleeper: right-hander Edubray Ramos, but he’s starting the year in the minors. So let’s add it all up: Bailey first, Hernandez at some point, Ernesto Frieri and Garcia probably get shots and Ramos is intriguing for August. Honestly, just try to avoid it all but Bailey saves 15, Hernandez 13, Frieri nine, Garcia six and Ramos six. It’s everyone but 1983 closer Holland, basically.
Pittsburgh Pirates: Back to normalcy, please. Right-hander Mark Melancon and lefty Tony Watson comprise the top 1-2 punch few talk about.
Stats: Melancon saves 45 games. Watson, last year’s MLB leader with 41 holds, gets 35 more. Next question.
St. Louis Cardinals: I still maintain right-hander Trevor Rosenthal would have been a potential No. 2 starter back in the day but alas, the Cardinals had other ideas. And they were good ideas.
Stats: Let’s not get cute. Rosenthal saves 41 wins. It’s never an elite WHIP, but the team wins games.
San Diego Padres: Honestly, this organization should be embarrassed. Kevin Quackenbush could save 35 games. Drew Pomeranz could, too. I thought Brandon Maurer would have thrived in the role. Heck, a dozen guys in this organization could have. You’re not likely to win 90 games, so why sign Fernando Rodney?
Stats: As you might have guessed, I don’t think Rodney, 38, was deserving of a closer job. He probably should be retired, really. Oh, he might fake his way to saving 35 games with a decent K rate, but I’m predicting doom. Big doom. Rodney loses the job before May and Quackenbush runs with it. Final save tallies: Quackenbush 27, Rodney seven, Pomeranz six, and Maurer hurls an effective 160 rotation innings.
San Francisco Giants: Right-hander Santiago Casilla boasts three World Series rings. He closed in October for only one of the winners but still, it’s been a great run. Now that it’s an “even” year the Giants are poised for another title, but I don’t think Casilla closes all year here. Nor do I see Sergio Romo doing so.
Stats: Manager Bruce Bochy is a smart man, and I think he knows his best relief pitcher last season was not Casilla. It probably was Romo, but right-hander Hunter Strickland is the future -- an emerging strikeout option who, unlike Romo, wasn’t lit up by left-handed hitters. Casilla saves 23 games and Romo another six, but Strickland is closing by August and ends up with 15 saves.
Washington Nationals: I can’t name him. I can’t. I promised I wouldn’t. Oh, this former Red Sox and Phillies closer who is mighty full of himself and can’t keep his hands off Bryce Harper is going to be statistically fine and earn his saves and all the while smiling in the clubhouse with his pals but no, I won’t do it. Some will tell you his level of effectiveness is in danger and Shawn Kelley could usurp the role but no, I don’t see it.
Stats: The closer who shall remain nameless saves 36 games. Kelley saves three. Peace.