It’s rare to see an offseason in which so many valuable players from one particular fantasy position are traded from one of the leagues to the other, but if you’ve competed in an NL-only format so far, you know that’s precisely what occurred. Several AL contenders are emulating what the successful Kansas City Royals have achieved and decided no price was too high to acquire a top closer, leaving several rebuilding NL teams with prospects who might or might not work out, and several messy closer situations. Regardless, the AL is stacked when it comes to closers.
We have a few more weeks of spring training but the save situations in the AL are pretty much set, so in our annual look at each team’s bullpen we’re going to start with the AL and follow up the next day with the NL, with the goal to paint a picture of how saves should be divided by the big league club. Certainly some pitchers will lose jobs, either by performance or injury, and in that way it’s simply a guessing game. In other ways it’s not. These are one man’s opinions and remember some are way out of left field, so to speak. After all, who saw Jeurys Familia, Shawn Tolleson and Roberto Osuna combining for 98 saves a year ago?
Baltimore Orioles: Lefty Zach Britton is amazing with his ground ball rate and despite the presence of an accomplished, expensive setup man, little should alter here. If you’re looking for a sleeper for good innings, try right-hander Mychal Givens. But he’s not getting saves here.
Stats: Britton saves 39 games, Darren O’Day another four. And if you’re into holds, O’Day adds 22 of those. Personally, I’m a fan of leagues that combine saves + holds. Makes you really think.
Boston Red Sox: Right-hander Craig Kimbrel comes off his first season with fewer than 40 saves. Think about that for a minute. He won’t be sharing here and there’s little reason to believe he’ll get hurt or suddenly fall apart. Would like to see the home run rate cut in half, though.
Stats: Kimbrel gets back over 40 saves, earning 45. Carson Smith is better than Koji Uehara, but probably not next in line. Each hovers around 20 holds, but Smith is the K guy.
Chicago White Sox: Right-hander David Robertson posted an unseemly ERA, but the FIP was a run lower. He’s fine. You can see how this is going to get repetitive in the AL. Each team has a closer already and he’s established. I don’t like projecting injuries for those who haven’t been hurt and show no signs of trouble.
Stats: Robertson gets to 40 saves for the first time. Lefty Zach Duke held 26 games and should do so again. Right-hander Daniel Webb is a coarse reminder that prospect closers seldom turn into much.
Cleveland Indians: Ho hum, there’s right-hander Cody Allen and his 99 whiffs and again, not much else to see here if you’re looking for upheaval.
Stats: I like the Tribe this season. Allen earns a personal-best 44 saves. Bryan Shaw gets passed by Zach McAllister for holding duties, though neither accrues more than 20.
Detroit Tigers: I can see how some are concerned about right-hander Francisco Rodriguez, but the game’s active leader in saves bounced back from his 14-homer outlier in 2014 with a nicer 2015. And please, if he blows the job, enough with prospect Bruce Rondon.
Stats: K-Rod sees the ERA rise to 3.50 or so with all those fly balls but still, he saves 34 games. Can you guess who led Detroit in holds last year? He’s still here. It’s lefty Blaine Hardy, with a mere 13. Yeah, the bullpen needed upgrades. Mark Lowe should register 20-plus holds.
Houston Astros: A considerable amount of young players was dealt to get right-hander Ken Giles, so even if right-hander Luke Gregerson deserves a better fate and wants to close, Giles has to be the guy. Of course, Giles boasts a mere 16 career saves. He used to walk people in the minors, too. But I just can’t project problems here, either.
Stats: Giles doesn’t get every save, but 35 is a nice number. Gregerson adds eight with 24 holds, making him similarly valuable in a saves/holds format. And I wouldn’t assume Will Harris has another year like last with all those home runs allowed. Look for better K rates out of your safe, middle men. Don’t chase last year’s surprising ERAs.
Kansas City Royals: And here’s my No. 1 closer off the board, the awesome Wade Davis. Forget what the right-hander looked like as a starting pitcher. In the bullpen, he’s a monster. By the way, good for the Royals for winning it all and the narrative about their bullpen isn’t totally off, but I’m not a huge Joakim Soria fan.
Stats: Davis leads the majors with 46 saves. Kelvin Herrera gets 22 holds. But the rest of the bullpen isn’t so amazing.
Los Angeles Angels: Ask the general fantasy owner about Huston Street and they’ll likely point out the issue with him is durability. It’s true; Street’s 62 1/3 innings last season were his most since 2008! But he always gets his saves and with little disruption in other categories. He’s coming off consecutive 40-save seasons so while he’s not a top-10 guy, he’s not to be brushed aside.
Stats: Street saves 36 games with a 3.40 ERA. For what you pay, that’s fine. Meanwhile, no AL reliever had more holds than Joe Smith last year, with 32. Pretty clean hierarchy here. Like most every AL team.
Minnesota Twins: Except this one! Finally something to write about! Lefty Glen Perkins seems like a nice fellow but there’s been occasional second-half messiness the past few seasons and right-hander Kevin Jepsen is probably a better pitcher. But the Twins will give Perkins every opportunity to save as many games as he can before the next breakdown. Frankly, I think the organization should give young right-hander Trevor May the chance to close, but it seems unlikely.
Stats: If statistical form continues, Perkins would save 30 games. He drops two per year. I project 24 saves, a more notable drop. Jepsen saves 18 and May six.
New York Yankees: Nobody will see suspended lefty Aroldis Chapman pitch until the second week of May, but other than that I see little controversy here. Joe Girardi wants Chapman closing. This could be one of the best bullpens in memory. After all, three relief pitchers fanned 100 or more hitters in 2015. Each plays for the Yankees. I just don’t see many saves for each.
Stats: I’m projecting “only” 31 saves for Chapman. It’s not just the missed time, but Girardi has other options and needn’t overuse anyone. Lefty Andrew Miller gets 16 saves, 11 before Chapman’s debut. And the best middle reliever sans double-digit saves will again be right-hander Dellin Betances, with a mere four of them, but no reliever will have his 120 strikeouts.
Oakland Athletics: It’s easy to be skeptical of lefty Sean Doolittle after the shoulder woes of 2015, but in this case I actually believe he’s back to his pre-injury self. The main issue if he’s healthy is the presence of several new right-handers with closing experience. Still, Doolittle is undervalued for fantasy.
Stats: Doolittle doesn’t get all the saves, but a career-best 29 of them. I like Ryan Madson over John Axford if you’re speculating and want 20-plus holds.
Seattle Mariners: It’s easy to be skeptical of right-hander Steve Cishek after an erratic 2015 … so I will be. Cishek has been dealing with biceps soreness so perhaps it gets blamed on any April issues, but I think right-hander Joaquin Benoit is certainly capable of splitting the early-season, ninth-inning work.
Stats: And now I’m throwing a totally new name at you. Watch hard-throwing right-hander Tony Zych. Skills matter and he’s missing many bats. I’ll predict no Mariner saves 20 games for the second consecutive year, and Zych is the guy by August. Zych saves 17, Benoit 15, Cishek nine and even Joel Peralta earns seven. What a bullpen.
Tampa Bay Rays: The Jake McGee trade presents the job back to right-hander Brad Boxberger, the defending AL saves champ. He wasn’t great in his second Rays season, as the K rate dropped, he walked more hitters and his ERA rose quite a bit. Is there really another guy here who could save games?
Stats: Yes there is. Danny Farquhar should have been Seattle’s closer in 2014. He struggled last year but he handles lefties, can pile on the strikeouts and I see him taking Boxberger’s job. Boxberger saves only 21 games, Farquhar gets 15 and Alex Colome finds a way into eight more.
Texas Rangers: Right-hander Keone Kela was quite the story as a rookie, skipping Triple-A and posting the best numbers in the big-league bullpen, and that’s including closer Shawn Tolleson. However, I don’t see Tolleson struggling. There’s no rule the team’s top reliever has to close.
Stats: Kela again produces the better season, but Tolleson saves 35 games. Kela gets five. Tom Wilhelmsen earns another four. Kela holds another 26 contests. Good season coming.
Toronto Blue Jays: Right-hander Drew Storen has lost the closer role before when he didn’t deserve to, but there’s nice value here. He’s a pretty good pitcher. So is right-hander Roberto Osuna but I’m going to shy away from controversy here.
Stats: Storen saves 30 games, Osuna six and lefty Brett Cecil another three. Not enough saves for ya? Remember, the Jays score a lot more runs than everyone else, and when you win games 8-3, saves are unlikely. Jays won 93 games last year with only 34 saves. The other six teams that won 90 or more games each registered 47 or more saves.