Sometimes we as fantasy baseball players forget that the statistical providers are actual human beings, and just like any of us could have performance -- for a day, a month or an entire season -- affected by forces we tend to dismiss as minor. For example, switching positions would certainly suffice as an excuse, just like moving to a new team, especially one in the other league. A year ago much was expected from Boston Red Sox newcomers Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval, established players with strong track records of statistical prowess. Things have really changed in how these fellows are viewed.
Today, Ramirez is moving to yet another new position, but one that figures to be a bit easier than learning left field in Fenway Park while Sandoval -- who has dealt with, ahem, some weighty issues in his career -- realizes his first year in the AL wasn’t so much fun. These guys need to bounce back if the Red Sox are going to rise from last place to first, and fantasy owners shouldn’t be so dismissive about the possibility they will. After all, a year ago Ramirez, albeit with valuable shortstop eligibility and the lure of adding outfield to it, was the 28th-overall selection in ESPN average live drafts. He was coveted. Sandoval just missed the top 100. Neither finished 2015 close to among the top-100 hitters on the Player Rater.
Like most players coming off poor 2015 campaigns, draft-day discounts are surely in place, and these show in our rankings. I can’t possibly regard Ramirez as a third-round pick again lest I be laughed off the Internet, but the guy has skills and he’s not nearly as old as the team’s designated hitter. Ramirez is capable of hitting for average, power and stealing enough bases to matter. Sandoval, who has reportedly slimmed down quite a bit this winter -- well, who among us hasn’t, right? -- remains a career .288 hitter, last season’s .245 disaster notwithstanding. Bouncing back to differing degrees of fantasy relevance is very much in play this season.
So let’s get to some other hitters looking to bounce back. Yesterday we focused on the pitchers and again, the only criteria other than using my vast imagination is that the players on the list cannot have been among the top-100 hitters on the 2015 Player Rater, since their degree of bounce-back isn’t, if you will, so extreme. This excludes Andrew McCutchen (come on, he was fine!), Billy Hamilton (I’m actually skeptical he can bounce back), Troy Tulowitzki, Jay Bruce and unfortunately, one of my favorite topics to return to greatness, Houston Astros outfielder Carlos Gomez, as he finished 98th among hitters. As you’ll see, he’ll be discussed plenty in this space the next six weeks anyway. The order below is how I currently rank them.
Yasiel Puig, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers: As noted in the pitchers blog entry, I find it hard to believe how quickly some people jump off a player’s proverbial bandwagon when there’s no real evidence for it other than one rough season. Puig was a second-round pick in most 2015 drafts, a .300 hitter expected to hit for power and contribute with double-digit stolen bases. Sure, the guy could be reckless on the bases and in the outfield -- and perhaps that’s unfortunately been extended to off the field as well -- but he’s 25. The upside remains enticing and now, like all these players, the discount is so attractive. Don’t draft five of the guys on this list to one team, but it’s good to take occasional chances especially when a player’s talent level has been clear. Puig’s a fine seventh-round choice.
Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, New York Yankees: Different story here because Ellsbury is older and much of his value comes from stealing bases. Puig isn’t really an effective base stealer. He just runs sometimes. Ellsbury averaged 46 steals from 2013-14. Do I think he can steal 46 bases in 2016? Well, Mr. Durable he is not, but when he first appeared to injure himself in May he was hitting .324 with 14 stolen bases and 29 runs scored through 37 games. He was dominating. Just stay healthy, please!
Anthony Rendon, 2B/3B, Washington Nationals: Like Ellsbury’s 2011 campaign, Rendon might never duplicate his magnificent 2014 numbers, but to dismiss his future isn’t wise. Rendon can aid fantasy owners in all five standard categories and can do so from your middle infield spot, probably for one more year. I’ve ranked him after the top 100, but I know I’m going to find a way to push him up a round or two as soon as I see him healthy in the next few weeks.
Jonathan Lucroy, C, Milwaukee Brewers: Let him represent others at his position, and there certainly are others. How about Devin Mesoraco, who followed up a 25-homer breakout by hitting nary a homer, thanks to a hip injury? How about Yan Gomes, who wrecked a knee and wasn’t the same. Lucroy battled health issues as well, but he was fantasy’s No. 2 catcher off the board a year ago, a clear top-100 pick. My advice for those in ESPN standard formats, where only one catcher is needed, is to let others take the gamble on catchers. They get hurt quite a bit and they see plenty of unannounced and often unexplainable dips in production. Gomes is one of the catchers I’d be fine choosing in the final round of a 10- or 12-teamer. As for Lucroy, I’m fine with him as a top-5 backstop, but in the middle rounds.
Matt Holliday, OF, St. Louis Cardinals: Here’s the standard old guy suddenly falling off the cliff to irrelevance … except I refuse to believe he’s simply done. Of course I do. Why did Holliday go from nine consecutive seasons of 20-plus home runs to four? Well, he was hurt. It’s true, he’s not young among his peers, but the plate discipline remains and he hit .279. I think he hits .279 with at least 15 home runs and loads of runners knocked in this year, making him worth drafting late.
Victor Martinez, DH, Detroit Tigers: Another older fellow sans defensive value but this one completely fell apart, thanks to knee woes we all knew about before spring games. He just never recovered, notably when hitting from the left side. Let’s remember the glorious 2014 when Martinez hit .335 with 32 blasts. Nobody’s expecting that, but he’s a career .302 hitter with pop, so don’t be shocked when he’s a popular April free-agent pickup who ends up producing.
Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Boston Red Sox: It’s fair to wonder what numbers are even possible anymore but if he could just stay healthy, perhaps one more big season is pending. It’s been a while since Pedroia hit for power and stole bases the same season, but he does seem safe for batting average and runs scored and I love the Boston offense. This is not the worst middle infielder to take a chance on.
Ryan Zimmerman, 1B, Nationals: Tougher to make the case for someone at his position, now that he’s no longer eligible at third base or the outfield, but the likely protector for awesome Bryce Harper in the lineup should produce runs, if healthy. Or he’s not healthy and Daniel Murphy moves to first to open up time for eventual Rookie of the Year Trea Turner. I’m open to both options, really.
Marcell Ozuna, OF, Miami Marlins: Ozuna’s 2014 campaign was surprising, as he hit 23 home runs, but this organization panicked when the power disappeared last summer, demoting him to the minors. Ozuna is 25. If the Marlins don’t want him, someone will. A resumption of 2014 numbers is definitely on the table but at a wonderful bargain rate.
Matt Adams and Brandon Moss, 1B, Cardinals: Well, let’s just let these guys figuratively duke it out in March and see what happens. Adams seemed on the verge of 20-plus homers for sure, though I wasn’t much of a fan thanks to his lack of plate discipline and ability to hit left-handed hurlers. Moss hit 30 home runs for Oakland in 2014, so he’s got that skill. Injuries ruined each guy last year, but the same upside remains. I kind of think Moss wins this job.
Michael Saunders, OF, Toronto Blue Jays: I’m actually more likely to invest in young speedster Dalton Pompey instead, but the organization is likely to at least give Saunders a shot after knee woes cost him all but nine games in 2015. Saunders had a 19-homer, 21-steal season for Seattle in 2012, so Toronto should see if he can handle left field. If he cannot, switch-hitter Pompey gets the chance to steal 30 bases.
Jonathan Villar, SS, Milwaukee Brewers: Well off the radar here, but I play in really deep leagues so I want to know about players like this, and perhaps you concur. It’s Villar’s job until prospect Orlando Arcia is ready, and the switch-hitter has stolen 42 bases in fewer than 600 big league at-bats. He’s not much of a hitter, but he is fast, at least, and has a job after Carlos Correa unceremoniously pushed him out of Houston.
Leonys Martin, OF, Seattle Mariners: Another speedy fellow but one who was a 12th-rounder in ESPN ADP a year ago coming off consecutive 30-steal seasons. He’s resurfaced in Seattle and should play. It might seem silly to predict Martin outperforms the guy who pushed him out in Texas (Delino DeShields Jr.), but again, don’t be shocked.