One of the first things I do when preparing my rankings is to look at last year’s version, find the players who did not perform up to expectations and figure out why. Many of these players will come at quite the bargain this spring. It happens every year, really, as fantasy owners tend to have short memories. This guy was bad in 2015, so no matter what he did prior, it’s irrelevant. Well, I don’t view things that way. Track record is important and it’s generally dangerous to completely alter an opinion based on one season, for both good and bad.
So it is that when searching for bounce-back options the easiest thing to do is check the rankings from a year ago and see who made enemies in the fantasy world, whether it was because of injury or performance. Perhaps these guys weren’t so bad, but expectations were simply too high. Whatever the case, players do bounce back and it’s good to take a few chances in your drafts and auctions from the list of those who disappointed last season. There are so many to consider I’m breaking the crew into two blog entries, starting with pitchers today, and hitters tomorrow.
The only criteria I’ll use, since it’s mostly subjective, is any pitcher who finished among the top 100 starting pitchers on the ESPN Player Rater is automatically excluded, because they don’t have too far to bounce back from. This removes, among others, the modestly disappointing Stephen Strasburg and James Shields, plus Julio Teheran, C.J. Wilson and Phil Hughes. Pity. But plenty of others fit, and we’ll go in order of my current rankings for them.
Adam Wainwright, St. Louis Cardinals: It wasn’t an arm injury. That’s what I keep telling myself, at least. A year ago Wainwright was the No. 54 player in ESPN average live drafts, so if people were truly concerned about major regression then, they weren’t showing it. He returns from an Achilles tear ready to pitch 200 innings, even if the strikeout rate isn’t at the level of most every other top-20 hurler.
Jeff Samardzija, San Francisco Giants: The Shark wasn’t hurt, at least as far as we know. His one year with the Chicago White Sox went poorly, with an ineffective slider, falling K rate and a career-worst 29 home runs allowed. Now he’s in a pitchers' park and I expect 200 strikeouts, which he achieved in 2013 and ’14.
Anibal Sanchez, Detroit Tigers: We know his upside as well, as he used to be one of the more reliable options in the game. In 2015 he wasn’t, and later we were informed rotator cuff inflammation played a role in decreased velocity and a brutal home run rate. My only question is whether he bounces back to top-20 status or merely to someone worth owning in shallow leagues.
Yu Darvish, Texas Rangers: His fourth season in the big leagues was a lost one because of Tommy John surgery, but let’s remember the procedure was done in March. He has had plenty of time. Don’t expect a full 33 starts, but you know he’s a major strikeout guy, and it’s generally wiser to invest in those types for the upside.
Jonathon Niese, Pittsburgh Pirates: This might seem like a strange option, but from 2012-14 his ERA was 3.49 with a 1.28 WHIP, and twice he made 30 starts. He’s no ace, but in Pittsburgh, with that ballpark, that pitching coach and that outfield defense … just look what fellow lefty J.A. Happ did for the Bucs.
Tanner Roark, Washington Nationals: Most regard Roark as vastly overachieving in 2014 based on skills and minor league numbers, and perhaps even the Nats do because they handled him poorly last season. But he won 15 games with a 2.85 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. That’s really good. If the ERA rises to 3.85 with a 1.20 WHIP, then he’s, what, Collin McHugh? You’ll be drafting him, yes?
Doug Fister, Houston Astros: Roark’s teammate in Washington has moved back to the American League, where his cumulative ERA for the Mariners/Tigers was a solid 3.53, with a 1.21 WHIP. He’s not a big strikeout guy, but the Astros are good, and were good enough to get McHugh 19 wins.
Alex Cobb, Tampa Bay Rays: Different from Darvish because his season-ending surgery occurred in May, so we’re hoping for half a season. But the guy is good. Don’t forget him in keeper formats.
Drew Hutchison, Toronto Blue Jays: Jumping way off radar now, Hutchison probably isn’t in Toronto’s current rotation, but the Jays can’t give up on him and neither should we. Look at the strikeout per inning in 2014. Look at Hutchison’s home numbers last season (11-2, 2.91 ERA). Just don’t look at the road figures (9.83 ERA, 2.06 WHIP). Give this young man some home cooking on the road! Hey, we jest, but every year there are major surprises, and we know Hutchison has skills.
Jarred Cosart, Miami Marlins: I’ve decided not to look at his 2015 stats, because he was dealing with vertigo. In 2014, the right-hander was competent. Cosart induces many a ground ball so don’t expect a big K rate, but his home ballpark remains large and there’s upside.
Homer Bailey, Cincinnati Reds: Remember him? Sure ya do! He was actually chosen ahead of Charlie Blackmon, Chris Archer and J.D. Martinez in last year’s drafts! Bailey, who fanned 199 hitters in 2013 and posted a cumulative ERA of 3.61 with a 1.19 WHIP from 2012-14, might not return to the Reds until June, and might never be the ace so many wished for, but he has been relevant.
Matt Moore, Rays: Whenever someone tells you coming back from Tommy John surgery is no big deal and the guy should immediately return to his normal stats, cite Moore. None of his first eight starts for the Rays last year were quality ones. But his final four starts were. I’m presuming he’s healthy and has his command back now.